2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Page 2 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:49 am

sroc4 wrote:
snow247 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

That's the new normal, doc. We should really look into why every storm has screwed N & W areas the past few years. I am starting to believe it's not just bad luck.

Doc and or snow do you guys have a reference for snow totals for your areas over the last few decades?  

Doc,CP is our Hudson Valley Stat Man .He should be able to answer this question.

Hope you are well good Buddy and enjoy the snow to come!
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5326
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 66
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:51 am

This is sounding like A SE coastal special also to note temp was 39° it's dropped to 36° in last 2 hours
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3644
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 39
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by WOLVES1 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:52 am

Any euro maps?
avatar
WOLVES1

Posts : 100
Join date : 2013-01-10
Age : 46
Location : Malverne NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Radz on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:53 am

Sunny 31.1°
avatar
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 577
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by oldtimer on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:57 am

Partly Sunny. 35*

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 938
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 71
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by frank 638 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:58 am

partly cloudy skies and 34 deg i am glad that the snow will happen late tonight in to tom morning at least it will try stick

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1303
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 34
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:04 am

WOLVES1 wrote:Any euro maps?



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4785
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:05 am

Latest SREFS looks great. The bullseye appears to be from Jersey Shore through all of Long Island. 6 to 10 inches. I'll stick with 4-8 inches though. Then there's a sharp gradient for those N&W. Probably 3-6" for NYC, 2-4" for NJ and 1-3 as you go into west NJ and those N&W. 


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 17016
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:06 am

6z JMA 


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 17016
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by amugs on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:30 am

Let's see if we get a 20 mile tick nw the precip amounts n all 12z runs today that have started to show up somewhat . Frank and Sroc maps will verify and people will be left hanging.


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:33 am

36* and mostly cloudy but with a few breaks of sun. pretty noticeable northeast breeze probably about 10-12 mph.
avatar
billg315
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1229
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 43
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by oldtimer on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:35 am

Are we at nowcasting at this point. 37.5 still partly sunny

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 938
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 71
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by billg315 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:38 am

The fact that the bulk of this should come after dark will be a plus for accumulations as at this time of year with a stronger sun and temps expected above freezing it would be real hard to get anything to stick during the day. Even tonight I think it will have to get heavy at times to really stick on any paved surfaces which is why I suspect totals (in terms of what we actually see on roadways/walkways) will be a suppressed a bit from what is actually falling.
avatar
billg315
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1229
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 43
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by jake732 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:38 am

37
avatar
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 383
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

View user profile http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by snow247 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:39 am

Already lightly snowing here, 30*.
avatar
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Snow88 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:42 am

SREF Plumes are 3-6 for the NYC area. Not bad.
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1831
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 29
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:02 am

Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3644
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 39
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by oldtimer on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:02 am

Frank. Any change in the timing at all??

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 938
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 71
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:14 am

oldtimer wrote:Frank. Any change in the timing at all??

Nope, on and off rain and snow showers all day today. The main precip from the coastal storm won't arrive until 6-8pm.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 17016
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Snow88 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:15 am

1-3 inches for NYC with more to the east
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1831
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 29
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:17 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

Skins, the LP is still off the NC coast so it will take time to get up here. The northern energy may give some folks a little flurry action this morning.

_________________
Janet


Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      38.5"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3309
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 55
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:27 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

Skins, the LP is still off the NC coast so it will take time to get up here. The northern energy may give some folks a little flurry action this morning.
That's what I thought thank you
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3644
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 39
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by jake732 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:28 am

Some mets are predicting 1 and some 6 this is coming down to the wire
avatar
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 383
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

View user profile http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:37 am

jake732 wrote:Some mets  are predicting  1 and some 6 this is coming down to the  wire

The network mets seem to like the gfs which seems to be the outlier for precip totals. The short range models are a little more robust.

_________________
Janet


Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      38.5"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3309
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 55
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:43 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later


We were always going to get an initial weak wave of LP that moved east OTS associated with the frontal boundary labeled 1.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:






As the ULL drops into the central plains a new more defined LP takes shape off of the EC somewhere between the Delmarva and Cape Hat and moves NE towards the BM along the frontal boundary labeled 2 in association with the vorticity embedded with the mean trough.  

Later tonight




The timing of this newly difined LP, and more importantly the timing of its intensification relative to our latitude is what makes or breaks this storm and how far west the precip comes.  The intensification occurs as the trough tilts from pos to neutral to neg as it begins to interact with the northern most trough labeled 3 above.  I think its fair to say that the trough does not go negative before it passes the BM; however, it still may go neutral.  Also there appears to be pretty decent vertical velocities which will lead to frontogenic forcings setting up for a period of about 6-8hrs that will enhance snowfall rates.  Where exactly the frontogenesis sets up will jackpot for our area.  The chances are def out over Nassau and Suffolk counties of LI, S CT, and areas along the NJ coast from say Toms river on northward.   





Without the trough going neg the enhanced lifting mechanisms described will be relied upon to achieve the higher snowfall amounts IMO making the ceiling for this storm 4-8"; however if the trough goes neutral or neg sooner than forecast totals will need to be increased.  Areas just to our N and E like RI and Eastern Mass have a much better chance at seeing the CCB bands, and maybe N eastern most LI that will devlop as the trough phass with the northern energy and tilts neg.  My heart is telling me my first call snow map will verify, esp for eastern sections; however, my gut tells me my lines need to shift 30-40miles to the east.  We are pretty much into the Now cast timeframe.  Ill prob only look at rgem, NAM, RAP, and HRRR today.  Global models are in too tight IMO.


Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:45 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4785
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum