April Obs & Discussion

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April Obs & Discussion

Post by amugs on Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:07 am

As Jman posted in teh March thread that the latest Euro and GFS hinting a a possible high wind event with the Arctic front
early Sunday. Both Euro and GFS also have the potential for the first upper 20's
in NYC in April since. The last April 30 degree reading in NYC was in 2007. Check out the number below - got this off another site.


2007...30
2004...29
2003...30
2002...30
2000...30
1997...28
1995...23

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:08 am

Latest Disco for Sat-Sun, hang onto ur hats!

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLIPPER LOW THAT DEEPENS TO OUR NORTH...AND
DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THE DEEPENING
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE SOLID WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS (SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31
TO 39 MPH/GUSTS 46 TO 57 MPH)...AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS (GUSTS 58 MPH OR GREATER).
TIMING FOR STRONGEST WINDS
WOULD BE LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:29 am

tropopause fold[′trōp·ə‚pȯz ′fōld]
(meteorology)
"A phenomenon occurring in the stratosphere in which a tapering cone of dry, ozone-rich air intrudes into the troposphere." I assume that means very cold air will be driven from top to bottom in the troposphere which is why 925 MB go from +2 to - 9c in 6 hours. That would make the atmosphere very unstable
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:34 am

This is box disco this morning...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING ... INTERESTING WEATHER POSSIBLE AS
VIGOROUS POLAR JET WITH POTENTIAL TROP FOLD IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY. THIS RESULTS IN CLIPPER LOW RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE POLAR FRONT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM!
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE
REALIZED IN THE FORM OF ROBUST RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS ALONG WITH LOW PROB
OF THUNDER! COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT. WHILE THIS TROP FOLD EVENT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS THE 12/9/2005 CASE...IT BEARS WATCHING
FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS.
With model trends the last few days of the shortwave further south this could happen in parts of our area also
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 31, 2016 12:04 pm

Yes I believe that early Sun morning into midday will be wild with damaging winds and whatever this is that you are talking about.  What happened in 2005?  100mph winds on cape cod, ok road trip for me lol.  Love the cape anyways. The models keep really strong hurricane force winds offshore but pery close to cape cod, if that area hangs back to west we could be in trouble, obviously winds lighten over land compared to water but still NWS making noise about possible weather event so its got my attention at least.  Will be interesting to see what happens, snow squalls would be blinding with those high winds.

You really do not see this often on NAH such a large area and WOW LI, but most areas these are sustained winds that go well into the early afternoon on Sunday of 25-40mph, gusts would def push 60mph if this is right. I imagine just a guess that a high wind watch or at least a wind advisory will be posted in the next 24-48 hrs.

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:01 pm

The ukie is spitting out .2 to .3le for Sunday morning all the models are similar. Even more to our North. Those Areas that received hardly any snow like Ulster and Sullivan counties could get more snow Sunday morning then they have seen all winter.
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:24 pm

If we had a N NAO this set up woudl be wild and amazing all at the same time - arctic cold front, clipper sliding north that would get trapped or pushed south to strengthen as it hit the coast and gets locked in, I know IF but the last and only player on the field to make this a memorable one.

Definite snow squalls showing up. crazy set up incoming.






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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 31, 2016 2:28 pm

Euro shows a decent rain to snow for HV, LHV, NW NNJ Monday night into Tuesday morning and then cold brrrrrr for this time of year. Freezing line down to Ocean City MD

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Thu Mar 31, 2016 2:30 pm

Mugs I'm also hearing that the euro is the furthest south with the short wave for Sunday morning. This is probably the best period of winter as far as tracking goes except for the blizzard.
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:14 am

UPTON:

..HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE DOWNED. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:54 am

I called that lol. They been pretty steadfast on this high wind storm. Looks like it could have some flakes with it too. BTW where has frank been I know it's been boring but he usually chimes in at some pt. During the week.
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:31 am

April showers/rain bring May flowers - OH wait those came out in March already - so then what will come out??


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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by Snow88 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:42 am

I hope the storm for Monday shifts more south like the EPS. Good track but not a lot of snow for the area. Areas to the north get a few inches.
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 11:06 am

Rgem is a nice hit for the lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut and even parts of Long Island Sunday morning with those strong winds expect some really exciting weather for several hours. You can add the 4k nam  also. Trust the high-res models for the Clipper Sunday morning. This should be a lot of conviction with it wouldn't be surprised to hear thunder and see lightning going to set my alarm clock for early Sunday morning
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 11:43 am

The Rgem and the 4K Nam have 2 to 4 inches of snow right at the New York-New Jersey border running east to west from northeast Pennsylvania right through southern Connecticut including Upper Westchester the rest of the area is a coating to 2 inches less the further south you go
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 11:46 am

algae888 wrote:The Rgem and the 4K Nam have 2 to 4 inches of snow right at the New York-New Jersey border running east to west from northeast Pennsylvania right through southern Connecticut including Upper Westchester the rest of the area is a coating to 2 inches less the further south you go

Looking forward to it, love it when it happens on a weekend. Early sunday morning shoot they said winds go start pick up 12am, I am up lol go be zonked by midday Sun but who cares lol. Unless I am going to get soaked I will be out with my anemometer taking wind speed readings from the walkover bridge : ) I wonder if the police will stop me when I am up there early in the morning lol
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 11:48 am

algae888 wrote:The Rgem and the 4K Nam have 2 to 4 inches of snow right at the New York-New Jersey border running east to west from northeast Pennsylvania right through southern Connecticut including Upper Westchester the rest of the area is a coating to 2 inches less the further south you go

Crazy, if we get a heavy burst could be a short blizzard like condition. Al you and I should meet up for coffee lol

PS, Al sent you a PM
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:13 pm

GFS goes snow to rain back to snow Monday night into Tuesday now - LP slide much further south than 1st progged - this is getting interesting now.

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:15 pm

Okayyy the Euro must be off its rocker it doesn't bring in the wind storm until later sunday into the evening. Its like 12 hrs behind the other models.
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:20 pm

Euro says rain to snow and a good thump for NW areas Monday night for April - few inches as per SV - stinks cant post tehir maps like use to anymore.

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by Dtone on Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:56 pm

Sun & 76*
Dew 61*
Some kind of April fools joke. Cold windy days ahead.

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by Math23x7 on Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:13 pm

Accuweather has a "RealFeel" temperature of 80 degrees for Midtown Manhattan. I just walked around outside during my lunch break and I loved it!

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:14 pm

Cruel April fools weather today cause in 36 hours it aint happening for the next 10 days!
Could be a ripe for a coastal storm April 8-10th time frame. Interior snows and who know for the coast but climo says rain. Time will tell.

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:43 pm

It is BALMY in Harlem right now! 77ºF
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Re: April Obs & Discussion

Post by Dtone on Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:48 pm

It does feel great outside. A beautiful early June afternoon (except @ the shore)
78* dewpt 63*
Going to a wedding Sunday, I wish I could trade the weather with today.

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Re: April Obs & Discussion

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