Snow Showers Saturday?
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Dtone
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25 posters
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
algae888 wrote:it's down to gfs vs all other models. gfs is strongest and furthest north with s/w. only reason I give it a chance is that gfs does well with northern stream systems. however it's all alone atm.
UKIE IS ALONG WITH IT AS WELL
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Zoo snow hole over us - cant make this sht up!!
CMC
GFS says what??
CMC
GFS says what??
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
amugs wrote:Zoo snow hole over us - cant make this sht up!!
CMC
GFS says what??
Ahahahahahahahahaha!
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Latest SREF have more precip than previous runs
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
WOW nam
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
The 12z Nam shifted North has a 3 to 6 inch swath of snow from just north of Philly through North Central New Jersey the borough's and into Long Island
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
As I stated yesterday the GFS usually handles Northern stream systems much better than the other models so while it was alone the shift North so far this morning is not very surprising. Also inverted troughs usually set up somewhere in Southern New England not in Southern New Jersey
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Boundary layer temps when the heaviest precip falls on the NAM are pretty warm for eastern NJ, NYC, and LI. But, 925mb and 850mb temps are pretty cold for most except coastal and southern NJ. Overall, I think eastern NJ, NYC, and LI will see a C-1" or 2. Western NJ, NEPA, and HV could see 2-4, with pockets of 5"+ in eastern PA.
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Hopefully it continues shifting north
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
The NW shift in teh models within 24 hrs we are seeing once again overall- GFS really has not wavered.
@Al - so true - GFS handles Northern Vorts better - question to all why is this, Ray, Scott, Frank??
Okay this is on crack or is onto something h5 looks very interesting here and means business if this holds.
@Al - so true - GFS handles Northern Vorts better - question to all why is this, Ray, Scott, Frank??
Okay this is on crack or is onto something h5 looks very interesting here and means business if this holds.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
It'll be interesting as to how the Mets will handle tomorrow's weather as they are scheduled to host the Phillies tomorrow at 7:10 PM. Interestingly enough, tomorrow is the 20-year anniversary of the 1996 Yankees home opener in the snow.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
amugs wrote:The NW shift in teh models within 24 hrs we are seeing once again overall- GFS really has not wavered.
@Al - so true - GFS handles Northern Vorts better - question to all why is this, Ray, Scott, Frank??
Okay this is on crack or is onto something h5 looks very interesting here and means business if this holds.
I just think the algorithms or diagnostics of the GFS favor sampling for northern jet energies than southern one's. One thing is for certain, it has not wavered at all. Should be a nice day seeing the snow fall tomorrow. Still not buying the stickage aspect of the storm some of these models are showing though.
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
LOL at the hi res Nam. NJ gets several inches.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
RGEM is good for interior areas
Last edited by Snow88 on Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:56 am; edited 1 time in total
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
The jackpot for tomorrow should be anyone living near and along I-80 West in New Jersey heading towards Pennsylvania.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Today's GFS looks like the nam. 3 to 6 inches from Nassau County through the city Northern New Jersey around 80 West to the Pennsylvania border. The jackpot is just north of Philly where it shows 10 inches. The para GFS looks nothing like the regular GFS much further south like the rgem. comical
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Everything's going to depend on where those Heavy band setup. If you look at almost all the models they have snow in central New Jersey and rain in northern New Jersey or snow on the South Shore of Long Island and rain on the North Shore of Long Island. That almost never happens except in marginal situations like these with surface temperatures are above freezing and we need heavy rates to bring the cold air from a loft should be fun to nowcast this. someone is going to jackpot big time anyone's guess right now. Nam and GFS spit out over 1 inch LE for this event in some places
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Lakewood Weather: GOOD AFTERNOON http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/04/good-afternoon.html?spref=tw …
Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
12z GGEM...it seems like eastern / east central PA is bullseye
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Philly Burbs Historical snow incoming as per 12z gfs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Any time frame for tomorrow? I'm a professor in Wayne and my classroom on Saturday morning has no windows =(
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
The GFS is a bit South the nam was well North the CMC is a bit north from last night's runs. 25 mile shifts or maybe even less than that are going to have significant impacts for a specific areas.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Ukie has the heaviest banding just to the south of NYC into New Jersey. Any slight shift north would be great for the NYC area.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=036
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=036
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
The ukie slams and I mean slams Coastal central New Jersey. Right over skins and ace house. Ukie spits out almost 2" le there.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Snow Showers Saturday?
Do we have your mapsalgae888 wrote:The ukie slams and I mean slams Coastal central New Jersey. Right over skins and ace house. Ukie spits out almost 2" le there.
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