May Observations and Discussion

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Sun May 15, 2016 10:42 pm

45* here now TURN UP THE HEAT!!

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by snow247 on Sun May 15, 2016 10:59 pm

43
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Mon May 16, 2016 5:48 am

Its a chilly crisp 44 * on a Oct morning

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon May 16, 2016 6:22 am

36.7° was my low overnight. Record low was 43° at Teterboro, so brrrrrr!

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon May 16, 2016 6:31 am

39* here this morning...glad I brought in the plants..my little nesting birds must be freezing..poor things...
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by Radz on Mon May 16, 2016 6:52 am

38.7° low temp, quite brisk...
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by Dtone on Mon May 16, 2016 8:20 am

42* low temp

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by Snow88 on Mon May 16, 2016 8:36 am

43 here this morning
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by ak926 on Mon May 16, 2016 9:34 am

37 here this morning

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by RJB8525 on Mon May 16, 2016 9:57 am

Beautiful cold windy morning....in May was 38 at 8am....climbing to 48* currently winds 14mph
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon May 16, 2016 11:03 am

Dunnzoo wrote:36.7° was my low overnight. Record low was 43° at Teterboro, so brrrrrr!

You beat me I recorded 37.8* - must be the HUHI (Hillsdale Urban Heat Island)!! What a Face

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon May 16, 2016 2:17 pm

This is not a hot or summary pattern but a rather N to BN IMO as per the graphic below.
With the transition from an absolutely torch of a Nino to a La Nina the EPO is flexing its muscle here as Nino dies off.
Also there is no real heat on GFS going out - the 500mb pattern not showing this but cool nights and 70* type of days - normal for this time of year. May looks to end up BN if this comes to fruition. June I think at this time will be a near N month - patterns such as this do not seems to be breaking down anytime soon.



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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon May 16, 2016 2:20 pm

12z GFS says Coastal


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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon May 16, 2016 2:24 pm

Trough reorganizes in the east from the looks of this - I know where was this in Jan or Feb!!!!!!!!!!! Razz Question Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad


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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon May 16, 2016 11:05 pm

Would suck if the coastal comes to fruition this weekend. Would be a complete washout. Ridge tries to trap the trough over the east. Cut off low forms.


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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue May 17, 2016 7:40 am

This would b ts like weather? Gfs shows about 2 inches rain. Not sure what winds would b like. But I'm always putside sat till early afternoon any chance it holds off until then?
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by amugs on Tue May 17, 2016 8:48 am

GFS is ugly with this look for the east coast IF it come sto fruition - cut off low in the MA region - perceptual marine onshore flow with this.


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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by essexcountypete on Tue May 17, 2016 12:28 pm

Been watching the weekend forecast like a hawk since I'm going camping this weekend on the east end of LI  and I'm essentially the outfitter for the group. It was looking good, but now we get a coastal popping on the models for this weekend. I try to avoid asking for personal forecasts, but if anyone wants to share their thoughts on the weekend forecast for the east end I'd appreciate it.

I'm preparing for the worst (and the GFS putting out 2" of wind driven rain is the worst), but hoping for a better forecast.
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue May 17, 2016 12:44 pm

essexcountypete wrote:Been watching the weekend forecast like a hawk since I'm going camping this weekend on the east end of LI  and I'm essentially the outfitter for the group. It was looking good, but now we get a coastal popping on the models for this weekend. I try to avoid asking for personal forecasts, but if anyone wants to share their thoughts on the weekend forecast for the east end I'd appreciate it.

I'm preparing for the worst (and the GFS putting out 2" of wind driven rain is the worst), but hoping for a better forecast.
Same here I'm going on my annual golf trip with a big group of friends to ocean city Maryland on Monday and what looked like a great forecast days ago seems to be fading fast
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Tue May 17, 2016 2:08 pm

I hope the storm goes out to sea or never comes enough already its almost June already

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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by algae888 on Tue May 17, 2016 4:57 pm

it may end up being the second low that impacts us early next week rather than the weekend system.

sat/sun

Tuesday
gfs shifted south for weekend storm. still hits eastern areas.


top gfs sat/sun. bottom Tuesday. with these two systems it's now a lock that may finishes below normal. as of today knyc is -4* below normal with no above normal days on guidance for next seven days. first below normal month for knyc since march 2015 although june 2015 and april 2016 were very close to normal.
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by algae888 on Tue May 17, 2016 5:10 pm

with the dying super-nino high lat blocking, near record -epo, ao and nao, came on with a fury this spring (esp april and may). so my question is for anyone who can answer is, did the super-nino interfere with and overwhelm these tele connectors forcing them to remain in a positive state most of winter? if yes can we assume when strong el-nino rears it's ugly head in future years we can expect the same?
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by algae888 on Tue May 17, 2016 5:15 pm

essexcountypete wrote:Been watching the weekend forecast like a hawk since I'm going camping this weekend on the east end of LI  and I'm essentially the outfitter for the group. It was looking good, but now we get a coastal popping on the models for this weekend. I try to avoid asking for personal forecasts, but if anyone wants to share their thoughts on the weekend forecast for the east end I'd appreciate it.

I'm preparing for the worst (and the GFS putting out 2" of wind driven rain is the worst), but hoping for a better forecast.
pete it seems like systems this spring have trended south and east as we get closer in time probably because of the near record high lat blocking. that blocking has relaxed some now but I would favor the s/e trend for the weekend system. east end of LI probably has the highest chance of seeing significant rain. models should have better handle by 12z Thursday.
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by algae888 on Tue May 17, 2016 5:17 pm

pete fwiw cmc is a complete miss over the weekend...
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Re: May Observations and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue May 17, 2016 9:05 pm

Euro has a wraped up stronger storm than GFS for Tuesday. But it appears after saturday/Sunday storm moves out Tuesday another coastal forms ugh!
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