If June was as cold as December 2015 was warm...

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If June was as cold as December 2015 was warm...

Post by Math23x7 on Mon May 16, 2016 5:42 pm

I have thought about this for some time.  Considering how chilly it has been since early April, I, like many others, have asked the question "Where was this in December?" Considering how the 1981-2010 average for December is 37.5 and the warmest December on record prior to 2015 was 44.1 in 2001, it was an tremendous insult to all of us who love cold/snow in December to have the mean temperature go up to 50.8 in 2015.

Well, I think for many of us, June is a month where we want warm and sunny weather, especially since we had one of our meetups at Point Pleasant Beach at Jenkinson's on a beautiful Sunday afternoon last June.  So I thought that since December 2015 was 13.3 degrees above normal, what if June was 13.3 degrees BELOW normal?  I took the normal high/low temperatures for December and subtracted them from the actual high/low temperatures from last December.  I then looked at the normal high/low temperatures for each day June.  I did a crisscross anomaly wise.  For each date, I subtracted the high temperature anomaly from last December from the normal LOW June temperature and subtracted the low temperature anomaly from the normal HIGH June temperature.  I did this because in June, we look for hot daytime temperatures whereas in December we look for cold nighttime temperatures.  Also, since June has 30 days and not 31 days, I included July 1st.

After thinking about this further, I have a feeling that this was what it was like in June of 1816 (aka "The Year without a Summer").

Anyway, here are the high/low temperatures from June 1st to July 1st if it were to mirror last December.  The highest temperature is 78* and the lowest temperature is 35*

Date        High        Low
6/01          68          56
6/02          67          50
6/03          68          52
6/04          70          56
6/05          71          56
6/06          73          54
6/07          70          53
6/08          70          57
6/09          72          52
6/10          61          47
6/11          61          45
6/12          56          41
6/13          57          40
6/14          58          39
6/15          58          39
6/16          66          54
6/17          62          47
6/18          73          50
6/19          76          67
6/20          78          64
6/21          72          50
6/22          58          45
6/23          59          43
6/24          49          35
6/25          54          40
6/26          64          48
6/27          65          46
6/28          78          61
6/29          77          60
6/30          73          58
7/01          69          59

I made this out of frustration over the not-so-good spring we have had.  If any of the admins or moderators think that this belongs in the banter thread, feel free to place it there.  But I think this would give a good illustration of December's super anomaly in a different perspective.

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Re: If June was as cold as December 2015 was warm...

Post by Dtone on Mon May 16, 2016 8:16 pm

Ah man that would be depressing. That xmas eve vs jun 24 really puts some perspective. Look like half of june would be record lows.
I think it cant be a equal comparison b/c of the much more temp variability inherent to the winter months. Nonetheless shows how bizzare last Dec was.

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Re: If June was as cold as December 2015 was warm...

Post by Math23x7 on Mon May 16, 2016 8:44 pm

One thing to note is that the mean temperature of the hypothetical month I gave is 58.3*, 5.9* less than the coolest June on record (1903), December 2015 beat December 2001 by 6.7*. Also, there were summers in the 19th century that were like this due the blockage of solar radiation from volcanic ash, most notably the aforementioned 1816 when it snowed in New England in June. But given how the Earth is much warmer now than it was 200 years ago (which was during the "Little Ice Age"), it is very unlikely that a June cold snap of this intensity would occur from a volcanic eruption. Heck, the coldest June temperature on record for Central Park (with records back to 1869) was 44* on June 1st, 1945, no where near the 35* I have above. I can only imagine what it would be like if it had kept weather records 200 years ago.

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Re: If June was as cold as December 2015 was warm...

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon May 16, 2016 11:02 pm

If that's what this June will be like I'm shutting down the board.

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