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June 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:11 am

The stretch of nice weather we saw to conclude May will continue to start June. Changes are on the horizon though. As it states above, next week should feature a bit of a cool down.

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Post by amugs Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:07 pm

WOW - where again as this in Dec or even Feb - woudl have been a beaut BUT....

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Post-564-0-42649000-1464790244

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Post-564-0-64745800-1464792228

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Post by amugs Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:09 pm

Monday blues here - could be some severe action with this set up

June 2016 Observations & Discussions F108


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Post by amugs Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:43 pm

Okay the GEFS build in a trough from the midwest this weekend through next weekend and relaxes but only to Normal and then the 15th it tries to build in another trough - interesting - I am assuming this is in response to the IO Dipole crash along with SOI in conjunction with teh transition from Nino to Nina and the off the charts PDO

Indian Ocean Dipole - Look at how this was in our winter - uggh!!
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Dmi_short



Nino
3.4 - La Nada or Nuetral heading down under
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nino34

4 ditto

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nino4

1.2 down again
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nino12


[img][url=https://servimg.com/view/18554455/57June 2016 Observations & Discussions Pdo10[/url][/img]

Look at the PDO - line along teh west coast and slopes back towards the Nina cold blue finger.

PNA spike in the west causes the trough the east
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_23

it doesn't want to leave
June 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59


EPO goes big time positive again and the NAO is very Neg here - lots of blockiness

June 2016 Observations & Discussions 4panel

So what does this spell ??
Cool and Wet in the NE

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:01 am

Some rain showers tomorrow morning into mid afternoon. Will clear out by evening.

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:02 am

Sunday into early Monday looks especially unsettled. Around 1 inch of rain possible. Can't rule out a spotty shower on Saturday either. A "meh" weekend on tap.

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Post by amugs Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:56 pm

4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nam4km_apcpn_neus_15

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:11 pm

amugs wrote:4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nam4km_apcpn_neus_15

C'mon mugs, you know that band of heavy rain will trend #southandeast! Razz

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:10 am

Sunday potential for severe weather.
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Jun 03, 2016 9:49 am

at least memorial day weekend was nice? paying the price now lol. Crappy temps and crappy weather

64* overcast.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:26 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Sunday potential for severe weather.

I'm not that impressed. I think there will be storms but not sold on severity

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Post by frank 638 Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:37 pm

71 deg and cloudy had some light rain before nothing crazy just a crappy day at least tom it will be nice

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:01 am

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Image_10

It has pushed northward some
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Post by amugs Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:25 pm

Even though I believe there will be a Tornado watch for teh areas S & W of the NYC Metro area the HRRR and Hi Res NAM are showing a strong line of severe storms that may impact our area with teh warm front. It is going to be interesting as the days goes on today but check out the latest loop of the HRRR - pretty impressive.

The PWATS for teh area are high but not as high as the SNJ, MD, DE and SPA areas.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016060412&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3

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Post by frank 638 Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:34 pm

Wow what a big difference from yesterday's weather to today it's humid and muggy I hope we have good t storms tom

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:36 pm

frank 638 wrote:Wow what a big difference from yesterday's weather to today it's humid and muggy I hope we have good t storms tom
Theirs a good chance we will
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Post by frank 638 Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:47 pm

does anyone know what time we will see showers and thunderstorms

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:32 pm

The SPC pushed the yellow and orange even more north.

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Spc_da10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:33 pm

amugs wrote:Even though I believe there will be a Tornado watch for teh areas S & W of the NYC Metro area the HRRR and Hi Res NAM are showing a strong line of severe storms that may impact our area with teh warm front. It is going to be interesting as the days goes on today but check out the latest loop of the HRRR - pretty impressive.

The PWATS for teh area are high but not as high as the SNJ, MD, DE and SPA areas.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2016060412&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3  

I wouldnt be surprised to see most of the area under a svr t-storm watch or tornado watch tomorrow later. Though looks by HRRR there may be some less strong storms earlier in the day so is the day pretty much a washout?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:09 pm

Rain expected most of the day tomorrow. Looks like SPC still believes in the severe weather threat. I felt there will be too many clouds around that would keep the airmass too stable. We'll see....

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:11 pm

Hey Frank I am not that savy on the technical discussions by spc as the words they use are not english lol, but it seems they think there will be enough instability without a lot of sun heating.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:14 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
amugs wrote:4k NAM soaks NNJ sat night to Sunday morning

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Nam4km_apcpn_neus_15

C'mon mugs, you know that band of heavy rain will trend #southandeast! Razz

I like the little rainband circles from bonnie down by carolinas that looks cool. That tiny rain band is rather odd.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:56 pm

June 2016 Observations & Discussions Fb_img10
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:55 pm

We may get a break for a few hours late morning, early afternoon before the front comes through late tomorrow. Looks like it will come through NNJ about 9-10 pm.

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Post by Dtone Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:43 pm

Its pouring.
been raining on and off for a few hrs now its really coming down. I didnt expect so much rain so early.

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