July 2016 Observations & Discussions

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July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:03 pm

Looks like someone west of NYC is going to get some action Friday afternoon.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:40 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like someone west of NYC is going to get some action Friday afternoon.
yes evn coastal areas look to get some strong t-storms this afternoon...
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:44 am

nws disco...
Ahead of it, winds veer from the SSE-SE at the surface to SW-WSW
at 500 hPa, with a Bulk shear of 30-40kt. In addition to the speed
and directional shear, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE is forecast over
most of the region (only 500-1000 J/kg over Eastern Long Island
and coastal SE CT). Furthermore the region will be under the
surface theta-e ridge and have a 25-30kt 950 hPa jet pass just to
the south. Given the shear, CAPE, abundant low level moisture and
forcing from the low level jet and an approaching warm front (and
cold front by late afternoon), the ingredients exist for strong to
severe storms across the Tri-State from mainly this afternoon into
this evening. Bulk Richardson numbers in the 15-40 range, along
with hodographs suggest potential for some isolated supercells
and possibly some bowing segments as you get towards late
afternoon/early evening.

Consistent with this, SPC has placed NYC, NE NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley and most of Fairfield County in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms, and the remainder of the CWA in a marginal risk.
The main threat is from damaging winds, with a secondary threat
from large hail. In addition, given the anticipated low level
helicity, as evidenced by Vorticity Generation Parameter from
around 0.25-0.5 and Energy Helicity Index of 1 to 2.5 across
mainly the W 2/3 of the CWA (highest over NE NJ/Lower Hudson
Valley), LCLs forecast down to around 800-900m there is a small
chance for tornadoes, highest west of the Hudson River.

In addition to the severe threat, with the abundant low level
moisture, there are some potential hydrologic concerns
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:21 am

Raining really hard here lol up storm in Ocean county
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:38 am

HRRR and NAM have most severe storms north of NYC with a few strong cells over the NY Metro area, who do you like????

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Jul 01, 2016 11:06 am

Drought Monitor for our area


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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:20 pm

Spc now has our area under enhanced svr levEl main thread wind at 30% which is pretty high. I'd look for some pretty nasty weather later in the day evening. Even 5% tornado!
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:45 pm

Tornado watch issued for most of the area.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:47 pm

There is a separate thread for the severe storms coming in.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jul 02, 2016 10:19 am

I'm baaaaack! Had an amazing cruise to Florida and Bahamas. Felt great to be disconnected from social media and the world in general while in the middle of the Atlantic. 

Anyway, looks like I'm returning to fantastic weather. Sunshine this holiday weekend with temps in the 80s. Next week looks really good too. Pretty dey!

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:30 am

Welcome back frank I am glad you had a great time I never did cruise always wanted to go I have been to the Bahamas we stayed at pardoseo islat at the riu hotel I loved it I will be going way next month to punta cana in.      Any way its a perfect sat partly cloudy and 68 degs

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:24 pm

Welcome back Frank looks like Monday night and Tuesday we can see some more rain as most of the models have trended North today
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jul 02, 2016 1:27 pm

Looks like firework shows are in Jeopardy Monday night. Tuesday system trending faster and further north could be some good  thunderstorms to. CMC and GFS have storm after storm the next 10 days. Heatwave may be put on hold as has been the case this summer so far. Models especially the euro have consistently showed  Heat past 5 days out only to lose it as we get closer
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:00 pm

DL u think the rain will hold late on Mon as long it is dry on Mon during the day I will be happy I am having 15 people for a BBQ

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jul 02, 2016 2:30 pm

frank 638 wrote:DL u think the rain will hold late on Mon as long it is dry on Mon during the day I will be happy I am having 15 people for a BBQ
Most of the models have it starting after 8 p.m. however it has been trending quicker probably won't know for sure until tomorrow model runs
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:55 pm

algae888 wrote:Looks like firework shows are in Jeopardy Monday night. Tuesday system trending faster and further north could be some good  thunderstorms to. CMC and GFS have storm after storm the next 10 days. Heatwave may be put on hold as has been the case this summer so far. Models especially the euro have consistently showed  Heat past 5 days out only to lose it as we get closer

I have given up on the Euro, it has been terrible. The HRRR and 4K Nam have been good in the short range. Hope it does wait til 11ish Monday night, guess we'll see....

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:48 am

74 degs and mostly cloudy it looks like we might have our first heat wave starting wed threw Fri with temps in the low 90

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jul 03, 2016 12:45 pm

I'm expecting tomorrow night to be dry but cloudy. I think rain holds off until after midnight Tuesday

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by HectorO on Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:44 pm

frank 638 wrote:74 degs and mostly cloudy it looks like we might have our first heat wave starting wed threw Fri with temps in the low 90

I'M BACK! Been awhile probably a few months. The heat wave next week is just in time for my family from FL. They must be bringing it up with them. Too bad they couldn't get relief by coming sooner. But they'll be here for two weeks.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:00 am

happy Fourth of July everyone  party

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:03 am

Happy 4th of July to everyone on the board!!! I'll be at a family BBQ today. Back to work tomorrow...nooo

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Mon Jul 04, 2016 3:28 pm

flood watches are up for central and south jersey for early tues from 1 am to 8 am tues they can see anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jul 04, 2016 8:32 pm



Rain looks ahead of schedule. It's scattered steady rain so it should not disrupt festivities too much, hopefully.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:00 pm

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYONE!!!
Looks like heat waves will be the norm as we move forward. 2-4 90*days with a brief relaxation and then a rebuildin. The WAR or Bermuda High or Hadley Cell will start to flex it's muscle as we moved forward and the 500mb maps are showing sustained heat and humidity as we moved from mid July on through August. Get the A/C ready peeps.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Tue Jul 05, 2016 4:32 pm

Spent 4 of july in DC it was rainy, heavy at times with temps stuck in the upper 60s to around 70.
Back in NY its feels like a super humid furnest. Can't believe I had to briefly pull out the hoodie yday.
It started getting hot just as I was leaving, leading edge of whats coming here.
Sitting at 89* dew pt 69* here.

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