July 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:35 am

great news! it now looks like our heat wave will only last 2 days as a backdoor cold front moves through Friday morning to keep temps in the low to id 80's Friday and Saturday.
nws disco
A backdoor cold front approaches the region Thursday night and
Friday. The main question is the timing of the front and when does
it reach portions of our region. Thinking at this point that the
front reaches the region sometime during the Friday morning hours.
This would result in a slightly cooler temperatures than previous
forecast. Of course, timing is everything and will have impacts on
how warm we get. Confidence is rising that we wont reach heat
advisory criteria in NYC with highs in the 80s across much of the
region. The one exception will be Eastern Long Island, and possibly
Eastern CT where highs may only reach the upper 70s.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Wed Jul 06, 2016 9:53 am

Up in Lake George on family vacation.
Was 89* here yesterday and today even in th emountains feels disgusting out this morning. Going to be poolside enjoying the drink of the day.
Looks like some tstorms and some severe possible for the cwa around NY Metro from the looks of things so far. We'll see what happens as we get closer.
Is

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 06, 2016 1:40 pm

amugs wrote:Up in Lake George on family vacation.
Was 89* here yesterday and today even in th emountains feels disgusting out this morning. Going to be poolside enjoying the drink of the day.
Looks like some tstorms and some severe possible for the cwa around NY Metro from the looks of things so far. We'll see what happens as we get closer.
Is

SPC not interested in our area for Friday night but then again they change their maps daily. Midwest is under moderate risk 45% wind damage probability, that's high, but def not unheard of over there. I was wondering if Sat morning through at least midday looks dry or not? I have out door plans starting in the very early morning hours.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Wed Jul 06, 2016 5:18 pm

had a high of 93 deg with a heat index of 97 degs it was not to bad out currently 90 degs 2 more months till fall i cant wait

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:13 pm

high 96 today

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:33 pm

Hot one

LGA 96
EWR 95
TEB  93
NYC 91
JFK  88
ISP 88

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:00 pm

look for some t-storms tomorrow midday through early evening...




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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:27 am

Good morning ..
already 83*
dewpt 72.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:50 am

Flash Flood watch posted for my area. Tstorms rolling in later. Nam has storms affecting the entire area, HRRR keeps them in southern NYS and heading SE to LI. Stay cool folks!

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:22 am

thunderstorms with heavy rain the next few days and uncomfortable. then a nice cool down with below normal temps sunday thru Tuesday. looks like the gfs wants to keep the trough in the east this month with a few hot days between approaching troughs. mid to late month looks seasonable att. epo/pdo and northern stream dominate players so far.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:06 am

Good instability in the atmosphere today and tomorrow as the front moves through. Going to trigger some good summer t-storms.

@Al - I have been reading up on LA Nina and looking at charts etc. Looks to be delayed and we may bust may reach the nino record of 15 straight months of .5 or greater overall for region 3.4. Looks like Nina may not take affect unail fall now as per criteria levels.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:23 pm

Heavy down pour here much needed wow it came in quick
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:34 pm

Had a quick downpour here .25" in 15 minutes... still so muggy like a rainforest!

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by snow247 on Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:09 pm

Line of storms dissipated just west of me and fully reformed just east of me. Every time.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:14 pm

Severe t storm warning Fairfield county, CT & Northern Westchester.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:40 pm

Zoo stop using my name in vain!! Hahahsha.
Okay it is like a sauna up here in Lake George woloth heat index up at 98** Jesus the humidity is ridiulous!!
Just had a shower cell pass on by and lots on CN clouds to my south.
Glenn Falls just to my south had a nice tstorm cell hit them.
Saturday looks like poop with coil wet conditions not washout but shower and possible storms.
IF the GFS and EURO are correct then July 15th till 18th ish look to be down right U-G-L-Y with temps around 95-100 - Yikes!! Bermuda High or Hadley Cell looks to be getting busy and strengthening as we move through mid to late July.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:55 pm

Mugs while it looks warm for the end of next week the Euro has been over playing the Heat all summer showing Torrid conditions post 5 day and rarely verifying. EPO / pdo major player along with the Northern Jet Stream So any heat wave should be short-lived with a trough soon to follow. Beautiful weather coming up Sunday through Wednesday low humidity near to slightly below normal Temps
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Thu Jul 07, 2016 4:58 pm

very humid and muggy had a high of 89 degs we had a quick downpour i dont think we will see anymore storms for the evening

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:12 pm

one thing seems certain this will not end up being the hottest summer ever in our area. Going off guidance for the next 7 days we should average near to slightly above normal which would make the first half of meteorological summer June 1st to July 15th about normal. So if we are to end up as the hottest summer ever close the blinds put on the AC and don't venture outside until September. LOL
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jul 07, 2016 6:08 pm

Another downpour here .32" on that one, .57" total from 2 cells. Looks like more popping to the west.

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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:16 am

Winds of shifted to the north-northeast the city. Temperature 83 at 10 a.m. dew point 69. Felt comfortable at my house this morning with the low of 71 and a nice breeze. So much for this bogus Heatwave where NWS had heat index between 95 and 100 for Wednesday Thursday and today. Of the four reporting airports in the immediate New York City area only LaGuardia reached 100 for the heat index for one hour this week.  Cpk and jfk didn't even reach 95 for all three days. Newark hit 95 for a couple hours during this time.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by UnionWX on Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:05 pm

90, partly cloudy. It's been hot the past week for sure.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:56 pm

UnionWX wrote:90, partly cloudy. It's been hot the past week for sure.
I wouldn't call it hot. uncomfortable for sure with the High Dews. don't forget normal high is 85 - 88 across our area so 90-93 is only a few degrees above normal. Think of it like this when the average temperature in January in the mid-thirties and we have a high of 30 degrees it's not really cold. Very Happy
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:07 pm

1pm temps newark 87, jfk 85, cpk 84, lga 82. Don't think we will hit 90 today in the city maybe parts of Western Jersey the Hudson Valley will reach it.
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Re: July 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:25 pm

Yesterday AccuWeather was showing highs of 93 and 91 for Friday and Saturday respectively for my area. I just checked it's now shows 83 and 74 for the same days. That's an incredible blunder less than two days out. I'm assuming the reason is that backdoor Cold front  which wasn't well models and wondering if it has to do with such a negative NAO at the present time?
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