7/29-7/31 Possible Heavy Rain Event Disco/Obs.

GFS and RGEM showing several inches of rain for the area, most just NW of the city. This would of course put a huge dent in the drought.

Nws has been saying the area of heaviest rain is highly uncertain so it could b further south or north. That's why they are holding off on posting flood watches into city and north till tonight. Off topic tiny bit.. confirmed tornado in Maryland recently and a svr tstorm warning heading into jrsy from pa.

Their is a lot of uncertainty but if I was to get cnj to snj get jackpot as it seems to have been the case all summer. Also already have flood watches here

I am more upset about the weekend. Clouds and rain Saturday and Sunday.

I think that's because they know that's where the LP is coming offshore but how far north it extends remains to be seen. I think they will upgrade most of the area with flash flood watches just because of the possibility of such intense rains but I do not think that will happen until last minute like sometime before midnight tonight when they can now cast a bit more. Wondering if there may be a increase in svr weather potential too as I do not think they ruled that out either depending on placement, interesting the disco Al posted they stated that the risk yet low would be for tornadoes.

Frank_Wx wrote:I am more upset about the weekend. Clouds and rain Saturday and Sunday.

From I read Sat is going be to sunny and 86 per all sources I have seen. Sunday yes I heard rain.

Give me this in mid Jan to early March in terms of white gold please!!!
Some areas may have to get out the ark with the latest runs. Rain looks to come in after midnight and be out by noonish tomorrow and then another round Sunday during the day - this is much needed for our drought watch.

I niece most of Saturday is nice until late Saturday night

Frank_Wx wrote:I am more upset about the weekend. Clouds and rain Saturday and Sunday.

I thought Saturday was supposed to be nice...did that change?

Flash flood watches issued, 2-4 inches including NYC in heaviest rains locally more. Wow

Flash Flood Watch up for all of Upton's CWA.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN
FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN
NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...
EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...
WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN
SUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...
SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK.

* FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW YORK CITY...AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
THREAT IS FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE...AND
URBANIZED AREAS. SMALLER FLASHIER STREAMS MAY ALSO FLOOD.

Rain coming in already snj and cnj

Here in northern Orange County at 3:50 pm it is already getting dark. Near exit 36 on the parkway I have another house and they tell me it is pouring there. Tuesday morning there was a microburst that snapped a tree that fell on the side of the house. The elec lines took most of the tree. About $350 later in roof repairs, and then cutting up the tree after the elec company removed the part that was on the lines, I am so happy the roof is secure based on these insane rain totals. I had one eye on the chainsaw and the other on the forecast!

dkodgis wrote:Here in northern Orange County at 3:50 pm it is already getting dark. Near exit 36 on the parkway I have another house and they tell me it is pouring there. Tuesday morning there was a microburst that snapped a tree that fell on the side of the house. The elec lines took most of the tree. About $350 later in roof repairs, and then cutting up the tree after the elec company removed the part that was on the lines, I am so happy the roof is secure based on these insane rain totals. I had one eye on the chainsaw and the other on the forecast!

Wow that stinks sorry you had damage. Never been a home owner but buy my parents have had their fair share of tree cleanup costs and one big damage when a termite ridden tree (huge) fell on the garage crushing and puncturing the garage all the way to the inside. I think all together with the tree cleanup and repair to whole roof must been around 5k. Sandy tree cleanup cost them 3200.

Wow this is my NWS forecast, and you know they stay on the conservative side. I do not recall ever seeing this amount of rain dorecasted in basically a 12-24 hr period.


Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 73. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.


Friday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a slight chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 80. East wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Latest NWS Upton Disco:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A coastal trough remains along with a deepening low over
Virginia. This low is associated with the vigorous shortwave
moving through the northern trough over the eastern states. A
combination of the deepening low and warm frontogenesis through
southern NJ to south of Long Island 03z to 06z will bring
increasing chances for showers, and with marginal instability
thunderstorms. A deep layered southwest flow around sub tropical
high pressure off southern coast and into the northern stream
trough was transporting tropical moisture into the region. There
will be potential for heavy rain developing later this evening
and overnight as lift increases with the frontogenesis. A flash
flood watch has been posted to this evening and into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Timing and tracking of the deepening low across the region during
Friday is still somewhat uncertain, although there is now more
consistency with the low tracking just south of Long Island
Friday afternoon. Increasing shear along the warm front late
tonight into Friday afternoon will increase the threat of severe
storms across metro NYC, Long Island, and into coastal CT, along
with continues heavy rainfall. Speed of the low has increased and
precipitation is now expected to taper off from the west during
the afternoon. Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave late
Friday into Friday night with surface high pressure building from
the northwest. Friday night will be dry with a cooler airmass
moving into the area.

That area over Allentown is headed right for NYC metro and southern WC, its training not go be a good scene.

Flooding is being reported all over PA, Maryland, VA and southern jersey. Get ready go be a long wet night and day (hoping for some embedded good storms).

Looks like there's a training line of heavy rain from southern Orange County back west to Scranton. Almost reaching to my location now.

ALL ABOARD!! THE RAIN TRAIN IS ABOUT TO DEPART!!

A 20-30 mile swath in SNJ and NNJ through LHV into CT maybe wider a bit will be riding this train.

Their are reports in snj of 2-3 inch amounts already

Wow I'm literally in between both areas lol guess I'm go stay dry. Literally right to north and south crazy storm trains nyc area nada.

It's putrid ly humid and quite windy at times. Few drops that's it. Looks like Hudson Valley getting hammered.

Wow the whole area of rain just broke up, looks like most except far southern jersey and that spot in hudson valley into PA/NJ are not getting rain, unless that area way west rotates in but it looks like its going north.

I see, seems area is going to fill in latest GFS has 2-4 inch swatch right through NYC metro.

Two storms so far, .56 in the bucket, temp down to 71, 91% AND 29.68 R