Hurricane Hermine Discussion

New NHC update is west of 6z

Oh poop look at the forecasted blocking - this is going to get STUCK somewhere up here peeps

GFS shows a capture again, still a long ways to go and no consensus.

FWIW NAM initialized at 998mb

amugs wrote:Oh poop look at the forecasted blocking - this is going to get STUCK somewhere up here peeps

I think we go get hit but still remains to b seen. Sgetti Def showing more turns to left and wow that block. I for one would like some excitement for once. Btw cant wait for snow! Blizzards and hurricanes my things. Good tstorm too but too quick.

Mobile right now but nhc moved end of cone way west and we are now in the 10 to 20 percent area for ts winds. Yesterday barely the 5 percent. Getting interesting. Can't believe not a ts yet.

10am NHC changes in cone.

thats splicing TD8 & 9 together, dunno why they did that kinda confusing.

WOW to NAM simulated radar!!  Dead on landfall to the area if this panned out, but we know NAM 84 hrs out. NAM is significantly further west than last run which was off NC coast.

So far today is 12z meso models are West. actually have an inland track which would do two things weaken the system but bring much-needed rain

Yeah Al, will depend how much time it spends over land but looking at rain totals it would be a bit too much rain, and I think we would at least contend with some TS winds, I do not see it being THAT far west but who knows with the late mesoscale models. NAM did okay with winter but I dunno how it handles tropical systems in comparison. GFS, NAM agreen on more west, HWRF is well OTS (more reliable at this time frame?) CMC is close and euro is just off shore, still no consensus as NJ said earlier. In short term its amazing how little they know exactly what intensity and landfall it will be, right now its stationary which is not good, will intensify quick.

12z GFS is headed further west in FL and comes in stronger than 06z at hr 42.

Well west over land in line with NAM so far stronger though over land, must be tapping into that jet streak?

Yesterday far East today far west pick in the middle

GFS is like the Nam

Thinking this will b stronger as GFS has been weakest thus far, it makes landfall in FL at 1001mb (its that now) initialized around 1009mb and stays that way up to this pt. Go be close on this run.

This is showing a streak of 5-10 inches of rain, we may need rain but that would cause major flooding.

may strengthen if it gets offshore north of VA.

If this were sitting over water it would explode...look at that jet streak.

sroc4 wrote:If this were sitting over water it would explode...look at that jet streak.  

well if we go in the middle of this far west and the earlier ots, we could b in trouble, still thinking we dont see anything much sroc? Also are you still thinking 3rd-5th, looks more like 6th now. Levi talked about that jet streak being what may intensify it as it passes past FL into SE US or just offshore.

Heads west right up through the channel up maryland west inland 999mb, rain splits to west and east of area. sorry the name of that escapes me of that channel, lol interesting run.

edit: it only turns west brifely then back to the NE toward NYC weak 1006mb but a lot of rain.

Crashes into the mid atlantic coast. Not as strong as it gets up here for NYC but way west of 6z

Snow88 wrote:Crashes into the mid atlantic coast. Not as strong as it gets up here for NYC but way west of 6z

We will see what NHC thinks, if they move cone way west the buy it, I am thinking in middle, like was said, which might put this just offshore which would be bad as sroc said streak would intensify it big time. And I see its taking on a non tropical status per NHC as it heads up this way.

Would this bring with it increased tropical humidity?

CMC much more in lone with current conditions, landfall in FL as 991mb TS, looks west too....

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f84.png?1364096147

SNJ hit on the ggem