Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Page 3 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 40  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:43 pm

jake732 wrote:what are the possibilities for us anyways? a ts? or less?
well 12z gfs surface pressure showed 972mb which b high ts maybe cat 1 I think. 92l who knows at this pt but it could b a beast some runs showing 940mb.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:47 pm

Okayyy euro has even odder solution headed ots and decides to make a loop back to the area. This is getting interesting.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by algae888 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:03 pm

The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4202
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 55
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:31 pm

algae888 wrote:The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
ahh what's damage as long we are cool right....cmc ensemble goes right over nj and nyc
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:53 pm

12z GFS Ensembles all show some form of impact to the area besides one member. Hmmm. Beginning to like the captured idea?
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4023
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by algae888 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
ahh what's damage as long we are cool right....cmc ensemble goes right over nj and nyc
Damage from what? A tropical depression? The rains would be welcome here as we are in this moderate drought. Dont play it up like we getting a category 3 hurricane Very Happy
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4202
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 55
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:15 pm

Not saying that but I think it could b more than a depression with the sst. We shall see. Satellite is look better. And I was jk. No idea what intensity this will b if it does pull a capture move.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:27 pm

And there have been runs that have it a hurricane as it reaches the area so I'm not discounting anything till it's passed us by or we have a firm grasp on the track
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:28 pm

It's clear to me that the upper air pattern is changing with each model run and we need to watch this for our area. NOT SAYING ITS COMING SAYING things are changing
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3527
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 39
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:37 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:It's clear to me that the upper air pattern is changing with each model run and we need to watch this for our area. NOT SAYING ITS COMING SAYING things are changing
very well said too early to say if it will come. We should have much better idea in next 48 hrs. I mean 3rd to 5th timeframe just around corner.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:45 pm

Ryan maue has several tweets about the area needing keep close eye on this for labor day weekend retrograde. He is very into tropics so that means something to me.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:51 pm

i know its early to say this and the models are keep changeing are we going to see some rain and wind out of it beside rough surf

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1200
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 33
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:52 pm

I have not posted much in the tropics here cause I am patiently waiting for these trop entities to show their hands a bit but it is not happening as of yet. But what from what I can see is that if we get a split trough with the first part not capturing the TS and carrying OTS then we have an issue up here IMHO. If the patterns as Skins said so truthfully keeps changing then peeps can be in for one hell of a surprise. Is it possible - absolutely have had hcanes do loops sure is everything on teh table absolutely.

A met posted this map and if this were to come to fruition yuo have a back side trough pulling the Trop Cyclone towards the coast and heights high as all heck over the SE CAN region that will act as block. I do think the westerlies will win out with this one in teh end but I think we do not get so lucky for the next few!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8082
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:58 pm

amugs wrote:I have not posted much in the tropics here cause I am patiently waiting for these trop entities to show their hands a bit but it is not happening as of yet. But what from what I can see is that if we get a split trough with the first part not capturing the TS and carrying OTS then we have an issue up here IMHO. If the patterns as Skins said so truthfully keeps changing then peeps can be in for one hell of a surprise. Is it possible - absolutely have had hcanes do loops sure is everything on teh table absolutely.

A met posted this map and if this were to come to fruition yuo have a back side trough pulling the Trop Cyclone towards the coast and heights high as all heck over the SE CAN region that will act as block. I do think the westerlies will win out with this one in teh end but I think we do not get so lucky for the next few!

I was saying this could b sneaky and if more than a weak ts won't have much time prepare. Next few well.let's focus on 92l as imo that's our biggest threat.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:07 pm



Looky see big HP to our North SE or more East Can

Blue for $1000 Alex?




_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8082
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:09 pm

Hurricane watches posted as of 5pm advisory for all of Florida big bend. Guess nhc thinking on the stronger side. Still has cone as ts. The convection is finally exploding over the center. Let's see if this can finally.live up to something and get a freaking name lol
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:11 pm

It's just my hunch but we are go see something from this big or small will have to see.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Snow88 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:11 pm

NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1677
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 28
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:13 pm

Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Snow88 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?

I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1677
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 28
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Snow88 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:15 pm

Hurricane watches for northern Florida
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1677
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 28
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:22 pm

Watching twc. I know don't kill me. Has 70mph ts in the northern most part of cone.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:24 pm

Snow88 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?

I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now
yeah think ur right still may not matter in terms of if it actually comes in or not.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12191
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 35
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:22 pm

Snow88 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?

I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now

the video I posted in Banter has a good explanation of Sandy and what made it a superstorm...along with footage of the area
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1286
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 53
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by aiannone on Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:43 pm

amugs wrote:

Looky see big HP to our North SE or more East Can

Blue for $1000 Alex?




I'll take it! I'll drive home from school for it lol!
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2399
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)/ Binghamton, NY (Binghamton University)-Broome County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 40  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum