Hurricane Hermine Discussion
+36
kaos00723
smoggy14
mako460
emokid51783
SoulSingMG
sabamfa
dkodgis
Dtone
Artechmetals
devsman
track17
dolphins222
RJB8525
snow247
Math23x7
Sunflowers138
HectorO
billg315
Dunnzoo
nutleyblizzard
WOLVES1
Quietace
aiannone
amugs
frank 638
algae888
jake732
rb924119
weatherwatchermom
skinsfan1177
Snow88
NjWeatherGuy
Joe Snow
sroc4
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
40 posters
Page 3 of 40
Page 3 of 40 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 40
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
and 92l b about what Franks scroll says right? God imagine back to back systems. I know I said that b4 but that b wow. 3rd to 5th not far away we need to know in next two to 3 days.sroc4 wrote:skinsfan1177 wrote:What's the timeframe for this if it comes up this way
3rd-5th ish
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
well 12z gfs surface pressure showed 972mb which b high ts maybe cat 1 I think. 92l who knows at this pt but it could b a beast some runs showing 940mb.jake732 wrote:what are the possibilities for us anyways? a ts? or less?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Okayyy euro has even odder solution headed ots and decides to make a loop back to the area. This is getting interesting.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
ahh what's damage as long we are cool right....cmc ensemble goes right over nj and nycalgae888 wrote:The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
12z GFS Ensembles all show some form of impact to the area besides one member. Hmmm. Beginning to like the captured idea?
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Damage from what? A tropical depression? The rains would be welcome here as we are in this moderate drought. Dont play it up like we getting a category 3 hurricanejmanley32 wrote:ahh what's damage as long we are cool right....cmc ensemble goes right over nj and nycalgae888 wrote:The one thing td 9 should do is keep the heat at Bay as the flow will be more East and Northeast off of the water rather than having a Southwest flow with the Big Ridge.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Not saying that but I think it could b more than a depression with the sst. We shall see. Satellite is look better. And I was jk. No idea what intensity this will b if it does pull a capture move.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
And there have been runs that have it a hurricane as it reaches the area so I'm not discounting anything till it's passed us by or we have a firm grasp on the track
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
It's clear to me that the upper air pattern is changing with each model run and we need to watch this for our area. NOT SAYING ITS COMING SAYING things are changing
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
very well said too early to say if it will come. We should have much better idea in next 48 hrs. I mean 3rd to 5th timeframe just around corner.skinsfan1177 wrote:It's clear to me that the upper air pattern is changing with each model run and we need to watch this for our area. NOT SAYING ITS COMING SAYING things are changing
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Ryan maue has several tweets about the area needing keep close eye on this for labor day weekend retrograde. He is very into tropics so that means something to me.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
i know its early to say this and the models are keep changeing are we going to see some rain and wind out of it beside rough surf
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
I have not posted much in the tropics here cause I am patiently waiting for these trop entities to show their hands a bit but it is not happening as of yet. But what from what I can see is that if we get a split trough with the first part not capturing the TS and carrying OTS then we have an issue up here IMHO. If the patterns as Skins said so truthfully keeps changing then peeps can be in for one hell of a surprise. Is it possible - absolutely have had hcanes do loops sure is everything on teh table absolutely.
A met posted this map and if this were to come to fruition yuo have a back side trough pulling the Trop Cyclone towards the coast and heights high as all heck over the SE CAN region that will act as block. I do think the westerlies will win out with this one in teh end but I think we do not get so lucky for the next few!
A met posted this map and if this were to come to fruition yuo have a back side trough pulling the Trop Cyclone towards the coast and heights high as all heck over the SE CAN region that will act as block. I do think the westerlies will win out with this one in teh end but I think we do not get so lucky for the next few!
_________________
MugsÂ
AKA:King:Â Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
I was saying this could b sneaky and if more than a weak ts won't have much time prepare. Next few well.let's focus on 92l as imo that's our biggest threat.amugs wrote:I have not posted much in the tropics here cause I am patiently waiting for these trop entities to show their hands a bit but it is not happening as of yet. But what from what I can see is that if we get a split trough with the first part not capturing the TS and carrying OTS then we have an issue up here IMHO. If the patterns as Skins said so truthfully keeps changing then peeps can be in for one hell of a surprise. Is it possible - absolutely have had hcanes do loops sure is everything on teh table absolutely.
A met posted this map and if this were to come to fruition yuo have a back side trough pulling the Trop Cyclone towards the coast and heights high as all heck over the SE CAN region that will act as block. I do think the westerlies will win out with this one in teh end but I think we do not get so lucky for the next few!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Looky see big HP to our North SE or more East Can
Blue for $1000 Alex?
_________________
MugsÂ
AKA:King:Â Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Hurricane watches posted as of 5pm advisory for all of Florida big bend. Guess nhc thinking on the stronger side. Still has cone as ts. The convection is finally exploding over the center. Let's see if this can finally.live up to something and get a freaking name lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
It's just my hunch but we are go see something from this big or small will have to see.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
NHC west of their previous update
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Hurricane watches for northern Florida
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Watching twc. I know don't kill me. Has 70mph ts in the northern most part of cone.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
yeah think ur right still may not matter in terms of if it actually comes in or not.Snow88 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
Snow88 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I missed that guess updated bit after 5. That's a big change in cone. Nhc buying the curve to some extent now. I'm not asking if this is going to b a sandy but is it the same setup? The one they said was 100 years rare?Snow88 wrote:NHC west of their previous update
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I think there was a lot more blocking with Sandy than now
the video I posted in Banter has a good explanation of Sandy and what made it a superstorm...along with footage of the area
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 3716
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ
Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion
amugs wrote:
Looky see big HP to our North SE or more East Can
Blue for $1000 Alex?
I'll take it! I'll drive home from school for it lol!
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Page 3 of 40 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 40
Page 3 of 40
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|