Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:02 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:.....to sound like a broken record, now that the track has shifted west and slightly north, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE that Long Island will get sustained 30 mph winds with gusts to 60+ and major surge for 3+ days from a storm located off Atlantic City NJ and inside the Benchmark yet only receive 1-2" of rain.  This IMO is a freakin meteorological impossibility

....should be 1-2" in 30 minutes on and off from bands for heavens sake

During Hurricane Sandy, NYC got 0.94" of rain.  Islip got 0.71"
I recall only receiving showery rains with Sandy. It was the intense window rattling winds from that storm I remember the most. At the height of the storm the winds were sustained at 40mph with gusts to over 60. Lost power for 5 days.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Quietace on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:03 pm

rb924119 wrote:Yeah I heard Skins. My parents are on LBI right now and they said that it's packed and nobody is even mentioning this thing. I told to do what they had to and get off as soon as possible because it's gonna be gridlock once people realize.
This is why when I come back this winter I am going to get involved in the local OEM. To slow to respond, and ZERO evacuations being in place. Are you frickin nuts! Especially in Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Everyone should be out from Belmar south in the lowest lying areas. Parts of Manasquan and Brielle flood at full moon, and conservatively add 4-5 feet to it, its a no brainier and I cant stand ignorance to facts, and "waiting". There job is to save lives and property and they are not doing currently. If they wait until Saturday night to issue evacs there is going to be gridlock down south and people are not going to get out. And if it stays as modeled, there is going to be repercussions for property and life and its sickening. there hasnt been enough communication between the NWS, and news outlets to get the info out to the public. 90% of the pop is not taking this seriously. DSS is one of the most important parts of meteorology and I feel its failing right now.


Last edited by Quietace on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:04 pm

how come it went quiet...are we waiting for more models to come out?
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Quietace on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:06 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:how come it went quiet...are we waiting for more models to come out?
Since it is EDT model come out a hour later than in the winter. Thus we have to wait until 9:45 for the first round of data to get in. 8pm int. advisory just came out with little changes.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:11 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:.....to sound like a broken record, now that the track has shifted west and slightly north, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE that Long Island will get sustained 30 mph winds with gusts to 60+ and major surge for 3+ days from a storm located off Atlantic City NJ and inside the Benchmark yet only receive 1-2" of rain.  This IMO is a freakin meteorological impossibility

....should be 1-2" in 30 minutes on and off from bands for heavens sake

During Hurricane Sandy, NYC got 0.94" of rain.  Islip got 0.71"
I recall only receiving showery rains with Sandy. It was the intense window rattling winds from that storm I remember the most. At the height of the storm the winds were sustained at 40mph with gusts to over 60. Lost power for 5 days.

And as was stated earlier 40-60mph winds around NYC and 60-80mph further south jersey can be expected, I believe someone said that Lee Goldberg forcasted this and he is usually conservative, or often is with snow totals anyways.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:11 pm

What happened to Franks update blog?
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:12 pm

Ace you're totally right. I think it also has to do with people not wanting to "overreact" either and cause panic. They're gunshy since the blizzard and don't want to be blamed for hyping this if it doesn't happen. Not helping is the fact that it's a huge holiday weekend and all of your emergency management people are probably gone because "it was supposed to be a beautiful weekend."

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:13 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:how come it went quiet...are we waiting for more models to come out?

Everyone went for eggs, milk and bread! Razz Me, I' m finishing a pitcher of white sangria enjoying my last night down the shore til next year...

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:16 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:how come it went quiet...are we waiting for more models to come out?
I noticed there's been a lull in posts over at American wx too. Everyone just taking a break. Its going to be a long night of tracking.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:16 pm

NAVGEM really far south. Totally rocks southern jersey but wouldn't be toooo too severe in NYC area if scenario played out.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Quietace on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:24 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:NAVGEM really far south. Totally rocks southern jersey but wouldn't be toooo too severe in NYC area if scenario played out.
So maps?......

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:30 pm

Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah I heard Skins. My parents are on LBI right now and they said that it's packed and nobody is even mentioning this thing. I told to do what they had to and get off as soon as possible because it's gonna be gridlock once people realize.
This is why when I come back this winter I am going to get involved in the local OEM. To slow to respond, and ZERO evacuations being in place. Are you frickin nuts! Especially in Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Everyone should be out from Belmar south in the lowest lying areas. Parts of Manasquan and Brielle flood at full moon, and conservatively add 4-5 feet to it, its a no brainier and I cant stand ignorance to facts, and "waiting". There job is to save lives and property and they are not doing currently. If they wait until Saturday night to issue evacs there is going to be gridlock down south and people are not going to get out. And if it stays as modeled, there is going to be repercussions for property and life and its sickening. there hasnt been enough communication between the NWS, and news outlets to get the info out to the public. 90% of the pop is not taking this seriously. DSS is one of the most important parts of meteorology and I feel its failing right now.

Ace I agree they should have,people getting out but I bet it's because of the holiday weekend which is nuts. I bet if this forecast holds they will evacuate the east side of point pleasant beach and it will be tough with all the rentals.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:32 pm


Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:NAVGEM really far south. Totally rocks southern jersey but wouldn't be toooo too severe in NYC area if scenario played out.
So maps?......
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:32 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:NAVGEM really far south. Totally rocks southern jersey but wouldn't be toooo too severe in NYC area if scenario played out.
NAVGEM was also south with the 12z run.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by Quietace on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:32 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah I heard Skins. My parents are on LBI right now and they said that it's packed and nobody is even mentioning this thing. I told to do what they had to and get off as soon as possible because it's gonna be gridlock once people realize.
This is why when I come back this winter I am going to get involved in the local OEM. To slow to respond, and ZERO evacuations being in place. Are you frickin nuts! Especially in Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Everyone should be out from Belmar south in the lowest lying areas. Parts of Manasquan and Brielle flood at full moon, and conservatively add 4-5 feet to it, its a no brainier and I cant stand ignorance to facts, and "waiting". There job is to save lives and property and they are not doing currently. If they wait until Saturday night to issue evacs there is going to be gridlock down south and people are not going to get out. And if it stays as modeled, there is going to be repercussions for property and life and its sickening. there hasnt been enough communication between the NWS, and news outlets to get the info out to the public. 90% of the pop is not taking this seriously. DSS is one of the most important parts of meteorology and I feel its failing right now.

Ace I agree they should have,people getting out but I bet it's because of the holiday weekend which is nuts. I bet if this forecast holds they will evacuate the east side of point pleasant beach and it will be tough with all the rentals.
Thats not a excuse. What you do is get them up out of the office, and walk door to door handing out the slips. Then you tell them to get the h out. 3 step process, which you need a few days to execute.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:33 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:NAVGEM really far south. Totally rocks southern jersey but wouldn't be toooo too severe in NYC area if scenario played out.
NAVGEM was also south with the 12z run.

outlier?

-------

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/viewtopic.forum?t=714
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:59 pm

HOLY SHT - this is going to be a disaster for teh coast and inland parts to - jesus I thought we get more NW but this is getting scary peeps!! affraid cherry

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:01 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah I heard Skins. My parents are on LBI right now and they said that it's packed and nobody is even mentioning this thing. I told to do what they had to and get off as soon as possible because it's gonna be gridlock once people realize.
This is why when I come back this winter I am going to get involved in the local OEM. To slow to respond, and ZERO evacuations being in place. Are you frickin nuts! Especially in Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Everyone should be out from Belmar south in the lowest lying areas. Parts of Manasquan and Brielle flood at full moon, and conservatively add 4-5 feet to it, its a no brainier and I cant stand ignorance to facts, and "waiting". There job is to save lives and property and they are not doing currently. If they wait until Saturday night to issue evacs there is going to be gridlock down south and people are not going to get out. And if it stays as modeled, there is going to be repercussions for property and life and its sickening. there hasnt been enough communication between the NWS, and news outlets to get the info out to the public. 90% of the pop is not taking this seriously. DSS is one of the most important parts of meteorology and I feel its failing right now.

Ace I agree they should have,people getting out but I bet it's because of the holiday weekend which is nuts. I bet if this forecast holds they will evacuate the east side of point pleasant beach and it will be tough with all the rentals.
Thats not a excuse. What you do is get them up out of the office, and walk door to door handing out the  slips. Then you tell them to get the h out. 3 step process, which you need a few days to execute.

I concur they are in for teh shock of their lives when they get teh call in the morning - where is that fat governor of ours - we have trop storm warning up for teh entire shore and nada not one word - typical politician

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:04 pm

Boiling



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Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

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