September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Page 4 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:29 pm

I believe average High's this time of year are supposed to be in the mid to upper 70's. We will not see that anytime soon...

We'll be in the low to mid 80s into next week

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18183
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I believe average High's this time of year are supposed to be in the mid to upper 70's. We will not see that anytime soon...

We'll be in the low to mid 80s into next week
frank backdoor cold front comes through Friday night look at these temps models are spitting out. November like...






avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:55 am

nao looks to be crashing this week. very amplified pattern.

avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:09 am

algae888 wrote:nao looks to be crashing this week. very amplified pattern.


Latest GFS shows another front dropping in afterwards with similarly cool temps.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:39 am



Looks whats heading our way - I 95 train


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9517
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:19 am

^Heaviest banding looks to stay in SNJ
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:22 am

But overall radar indication seems to show a nice robust hybrid type extratropical system merged with the remnants of Julia which has been drawn north over the past cpl days.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:32 am

Well we needed the rain...we definitely got it today
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1911
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:00 am

Got crushed here
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:37 am


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:40 am

This radar at 11:37 AM is EXACTLY what I expect to see all winter long with any big snowstorms, most of the precip going S and E,LOL.I know,I know... there goes Doc AGAIN, but it's uncanny how this S and E pattern just keeps repeating itself.I don't expect it to change unless we have a full winter of N and W areas getting more snow.
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6124
Reputation : 95
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 67
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:53 am

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a Flash Flood Warning for: central Suffolk County in southeastern New York.

Until 2:00 PM EDT.
At 11:06 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated Heavy Rain across the warned area, with another area of heavy rain moving in from the south. Rainfall amounts of one to two inches of rain have fallen. Flash Flooding is expected to begin shortly.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:31 pm

Yeah sroc u and ct are get hsmmered. How did that not move through this area it's a solid band.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14801
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:38 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah sroc u and ct are get hsmmered. How did that not move through this area it's a solid band.

Its filled in because of the tropical moisture feed from Julia. The frontal boundary was spotty at best until it reached the coast where it then quickly filled in via that connection. Its all a timing thing

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:43 pm

This loop shows it fill in nicely:


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5675
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:06 pm

October Analogs - Warmth incoming after a cold fall shot that Al posted above



Cold will not be lasting from this incoming shot and we need moisture to help propagate this, it helps with teh feedback of the HP systems. Dryness usually equals warmth and we have the SE ridge or BH pumping out in the Hotlantic.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9517
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:43 pm

amugs wrote:October Analogs - Warmth incoming after a cold fall shot that Al posted above



Cold will not be lasting from this incoming shot and we need moisture to help propagate this, it helps with teh feedback of the HP systems. Dryness usually equals warmth and we have the SE ridge or BH pumping out in the Hotlantic.
Mugs I'll take that look for the whole winter as long as it's active with plenty of storms the map looks only +1 for our area which nowadays is normal or below
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:20 pm

Wow just got home and over 2 inches in the bucket 2.36 to be exact and still raining
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4042
Reputation : 22
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:31 pm

Big cold on all models starting saturday and lasting into next week. 3-6" of snow for nne per euro and snow for the rockies as well. 850 temps get to 0*c for northern burbs on several days.
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:38 pm

If these cold shots materialize Could see first frost and maybe even freeze if models are right. Growing up in the 60's and 70's always had first 30's* day in early october. With the planet scorching right now can't remember the last time that happened.
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:18 pm

First sub 50* forecast low fot my area and still in september! Temps around 10* below normal. Nws thinks so
aturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:29 pm

Almost an 1" of rainfall today .cloudy and 72 * now we go back to summer when will this crap end

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1693
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 34
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:35 pm

Love my new toy!! We got 2.09 inches of rain today!!
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2016
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:43 pm

South and East AGAIN! Only .41" here in NNJ.

_________________
Janet


Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3636
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 56
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:45 pm

LOL, Dunz, only .22 up here.OH NO!!!!!!!!!
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6124
Reputation : 95
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 67
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 6 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum