September 2016 Observations & Discussion

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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:29 pm

I believe average High's this time of year are supposed to be in the mid to upper 70's. We will not see that anytime soon...

We'll be in the low to mid 80s into next week

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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I believe average High's this time of year are supposed to be in the mid to upper 70's. We will not see that anytime soon...

We'll be in the low to mid 80s into next week
frank backdoor cold front comes through Friday night look at these temps models are spitting out. November like...






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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:55 am

nao looks to be crashing this week. very amplified pattern.

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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:09 am

algae888 wrote:nao looks to be crashing this week. very amplified pattern.


Latest GFS shows another front dropping in afterwards with similarly cool temps.
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:39 am



Looks whats heading our way - I 95 train


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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:19 am

^Heaviest banding looks to stay in SNJ
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:22 am

But overall radar indication seems to show a nice robust hybrid type extratropical system merged with the remnants of Julia which has been drawn north over the past cpl days.
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by RJB8525 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:32 am

Well we needed the rain...we definitely got it today
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:00 am

Got crushed here
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:37 am


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:40 am

This radar at 11:37 AM is EXACTLY what I expect to see all winter long with any big snowstorms, most of the precip going S and E,LOL.I know,I know... there goes Doc AGAIN, but it's uncanny how this S and E pattern just keeps repeating itself.I don't expect it to change unless we have a full winter of N and W areas getting more snow.
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:53 am

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a Flash Flood Warning for: central Suffolk County in southeastern New York.

Until 2:00 PM EDT.
At 11:06 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated Heavy Rain across the warned area, with another area of heavy rain moving in from the south. Rainfall amounts of one to two inches of rain have fallen. Flash Flooding is expected to begin shortly.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:31 pm

Yeah sroc u and ct are get hsmmered. How did that not move through this area it's a solid band.
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:38 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah sroc u and ct are get hsmmered. How did that not move through this area it's a solid band.

Its filled in because of the tropical moisture feed from Julia. The frontal boundary was spotty at best until it reached the coast where it then quickly filled in via that connection. Its all a timing thing

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:43 pm

This loop shows it fill in nicely:


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:06 pm

October Analogs - Warmth incoming after a cold fall shot that Al posted above



Cold will not be lasting from this incoming shot and we need moisture to help propagate this, it helps with teh feedback of the HP systems. Dryness usually equals warmth and we have the SE ridge or BH pumping out in the Hotlantic.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:43 pm

amugs wrote:October Analogs - Warmth incoming after a cold fall shot that Al posted above



Cold will not be lasting from this incoming shot and we need moisture to help propagate this, it helps with teh feedback of the HP systems. Dryness usually equals warmth and we have the SE ridge or BH pumping out in the Hotlantic.
Mugs I'll take that look for the whole winter as long as it's active with plenty of storms the map looks only +1 for our area which nowadays is normal or below
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:20 pm

Wow just got home and over 2 inches in the bucket 2.36 to be exact and still raining
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:31 pm

Big cold on all models starting saturday and lasting into next week. 3-6" of snow for nne per euro and snow for the rockies as well. 850 temps get to 0*c for northern burbs on several days.
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:38 pm

If these cold shots materialize Could see first frost and maybe even freeze if models are right. Growing up in the 60's and 70's always had first 30's* day in early october. With the planet scorching right now can't remember the last time that happened.
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by algae888 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:18 pm

First sub 50* forecast low fot my area and still in september! Temps around 10* below normal. Nws thinks so
aturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 68.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:29 pm

Almost an 1" of rainfall today .cloudy and 72 * now we go back to summer when will this crap end

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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:35 pm

Love my new toy!! We got 2.09 inches of rain today!!
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:43 pm

South and East AGAIN! Only .41" here in NNJ.

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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:45 pm

LOL, Dunz, only .22 up here.OH NO!!!!!!!!!
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Re: September 2016 Observations & Discussion

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