Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:NAVGEM really far south. Totally rocks southern jersey but wouldn't be toooo too severe in NYC area if scenario played out.
NAVGEM was also south with the 12z run.

outlier?

The NAVGEM has been south all day, if anything it's actually come north at 18z compared to 6z and 12z. It's also the only model that makes a landfall in MD/DE and takes it west into Virginia so I wouldn't even look at that model lol

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:40 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Yeah I heard Skins. My parents are on LBI right now and they said that it's packed and nobody is even mentioning this thing. I told to do what they had to and get off as soon as possible because it's gonna be gridlock once people realize.
This is why when I come back this winter I am going to get involved in the local OEM. To slow to respond, and ZERO evacuations being in place. Are you frickin nuts! Especially in Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Everyone should be out from Belmar south in the lowest lying areas. Parts of Manasquan and Brielle flood at full moon, and conservatively add 4-5 feet to it, its a no brainier and I cant stand ignorance to facts, and "waiting". There job is to save lives and property and they are not doing currently. If they wait until Saturday night to issue evacs there is going to be gridlock down south and people are not going to get out. And if it stays as modeled, there is going to be repercussions for property and life and its sickening. there hasnt been enough communication between the NWS, and news outlets to get the info out to the public. 90% of the pop is not taking this seriously. DSS is one of the most important parts of meteorology and I feel its failing right now.

Ace I agree they should have,people getting out but I bet it's because of the holiday weekend which is nuts. I bet if this forecast holds they will evacuate the east side of point pleasant beach and it will be tough with all the rentals.
Thats not a excuse. What you do is get them up out of the office, and walk door to door handing out the  slips. Then you tell them to get the h out. 3 step process, which you need a few days to execute.

Didn't say I agreed with what I said Ace
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by dsix85 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:41 pm

Happy Friday folks- regardless of the overall track, do we run the risk of tornadoes with this storm? TWC (sorry for acknowledging their presence) had FL and SC at a TORCON 5 for the storm..Just curious what our risk would be. Happy tracking!

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:41 pm

Not saying I disagree, but be careful when you say this. Sometimes the outliers hold the truth. Nobody likes to admit this, one GFS ensemble member had Sandy nailed days before the Euro. I know for a fact that it did because I remember talking about it with my college professor. I believe it was member 15. One out of hundreds got it right. Just be mindful and open to all possibilities, that's all I'm saying. See what makes it different; question why it's different. See what it means to you. Then decide to toss it.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:42 pm

That was directed at Sanchize btw lol

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:Not saying I disagree, but be careful when you say this. Sometimes the outliers hold the truth. Nobody likes to admit this, one GFS ensemble member had Sandy nailed days before the Euro. I know for a fact that it did because I remember talking about it with my college professor. I believe it was member 15. One out of hundreds got it right. Just be mindful and open to all possibilities, that's all I'm saying. See what makes it different; question why it's different. See what it means to you. Then decide to toss it.

Well one reason I would toss it is simply because it just jumps the low pressure all over the place haha Also it seems to be trending north a bit the past few runs, it actually just about makes it up to Cape May at 18z

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:51 pm

Quietace wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:how come it went quiet...are we waiting for more models to come out?
Since it is EDT model come out a hour later than in the winter. Thus we have to wait until 9:45 for the first round of data to get in. 8pm int. advisory just came out with little changes.

thanks for letting me know...Smile
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:51 pm

May or may not be problematic lmfao but I agree, I'm just saying don't be blinded by consensus. 9/10 times consensus is right, but it only takes that one time to really burn you. Believe me, I've been there, and I'm sure if you asked any other forecaster on here he or she will say the same thing. It's better to be wrong for reasons that you believed to be right, than to be wrong for the wrong reasons.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:What happened to Franks update blog?

15 minutes

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What happened to Franks update blog?

15 minutes

THE PRESSURE!! affraid affraid affraid lol! lol! TAKE YOUR TIME FRANK
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:55 pm

rb924119 wrote:May or may not be problematic lmfao but I agree, I'm just saying don't be blinded by consensus. 9/10 times consensus is right, but it only takes that one time to really burn you. Believe me, I've been there, and I'm sure if you asked any other forecaster on here he or she will say the same thing.  It's better to be wrong for reasons that you believed to be right, than to be wrong for the wrong reasons.

Absolutely. I mean if Hermine comes off the coast of NC and makes a direct left turn into Virginia Beach I'll never toss it again haha

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:57 pm

It is totally asinine that no one is ordering evac for cape may and atlantic counties - wth are they waiting for my god these people will be in peril Sunday night. WHY I ask is the TSW not being publicized as they should by the NHC - even the EBS (whatever they call the early warning system) should be activated for such - christ sake we had it for the nor'easter on 1992 and this is going to be 4x as bad!!) Pleas don't hand me this sht of we don't want to cause a panic - how about be proactive and get the people prepared and to safety - masses are irrational and will try to wade it our whilst the water is up their necks and then.......

If you can make this out more NW lean on the GFS ens -





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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:59 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:May or may not be problematic lmfao but I agree, I'm just saying don't be blinded by consensus. 9/10 times consensus is right, but it only takes that one time to really burn you. Believe me, I've been there, and I'm sure if you asked any other forecaster on here he or she will say the same thing.  It's better to be wrong for reasons that you believed to be right, than to be wrong for the wrong reasons.

Absolutely. I mean if Hermine comes off the coast of NC and makes a direct left turn into Virginia Beach I'll never toss it again haha

This would mean the ULL woudl be in WV by then and tug the crap out of this storm much faster - could be but that energy is progged to be in the GL heading sw at that time - who knows but I think it is low chance.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:59 pm

Totally agree mugs. And I saw that. The low locations shows it best. Distinct northwest lean in the mean. Not good.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:03 pm

Frank totally no rush just wondered. I know u must b very busy and appreciate those blogs which I know take quite some time.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:Totally agree mugs. And I saw that. The low locations shows it best. Distinct northwest lean in the mean. Not good.
ya that's looking worse for nyc area. It's kinda a black blob but u can see its more north.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:06 pm

Total ignorance here too and it's on news Web etc. Even if not go b like shore people should at least know! No one had any clue about a storm hermine I spoke to today except one person who likes weather like me.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:08 pm

33 min till we track who's gonna kill it and go for the euro stay up lol prolly not me. I'll prolly check sometime in wee hrs of morning from phone.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:08 pm

Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.


Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:09 pm

personally I feel all coastal nj should be evacuated they are going to wait and it's going to be too late!
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:12 pm

Wow nws local forecast shows ts conditions possible from Sunday to Tuesday night thsts nuts!
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:13 pm

Two to three tides of 4-6' of water piling up on the shoreline will grow exponentially with each tide cause the water has no where and I mean no where to go - people do not put this thought

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:16 pm

I have not watched any tv today...I heard the mayor came out...did our governor?
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:17 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.
If that happened everyone from ct to VA would get crushed if it expands as big as some models show. I'm start lean toward getting mid to high end ts winds here innand around nyc and the ts watch says that's a moderate potential which was increased from earlier of 39 to 57mph. That's enough to put out a lot power and Def beach devastation. I'm thinking warnings go up after nws sees 00z model runs and things stay or move even more n or nw.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:18 pm

Oh sht this is an ominious sign here peeps - look at the convection just fricking blowing up on the eastern flank over teh HOTLANTIC - crips this is bad - this bad boy gets over these waters and KABOOOM it will rapidly intensify. Going to be A LOT of hopping come 0Z jesus.


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