Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:49 pm

snow247 wrote:LOL, 4km NAM.

Woah baby! How come its so diff than 12km NAM, they do not take same tracks?
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:UH OH CHECK OUT IT'S MOTION THROUGH 78!!!!

No Bueno for me!!!

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Dec 11th = coating
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:50 pm

snow247 wrote:LOL, 4km NAM.


Annnnnnnd that's what I get for hoping. HOW IN THE BLUE HELL DOES THE SAME GOD DARN MODEL WITH A HIGHER RESOLUTION COME IN WITH A DIFFERENT AND WORSE SOLUTION??!!!! ughhhh

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:51 pm

OH SNIKES _ NW MORE JESUS!!!


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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:52 pm

I will say though that it's projected intensity honestly makes sense to me, given the conditions. Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:52 pm

We're in for a long week.

Grandparents return from Italy tomorrow. They're going to wish to go back by Sunday.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by aiannone on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:53 pm

I better be able to make it back to Binghamton Tuesday lol
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by frank 638 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:56 pm

area we'llill the rest of the area will see tropical storm warnings

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:56 pm

Remember a weaker pressure storm teh HP/Block has a bigger influence on it for one - secondly a stronger storm can get further north into teh block.

Also the fast it gets out off the coast it can get ne more before the pull back to teh coast which could be disastrous - a bigger surge of water as it brings it back to the coast and stronger since it gets to deeper warm waters too.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:57 pm


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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by frank 638 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:59 pm

I am sorry my phone is acting up I meant when will the rest of the area will see tropical storm warnings

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:02 pm

Good points mugs. RGEM is running-initialized at 997 mb and close to the right spot. As Scott would say; WE TRACK!!

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:03 pm

Slightly northwest of 12z through 12.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:07 pm

Boiling


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:07 pm

THE HP is modelled at 1024 - anything around 990's or greater 980's can push up the gut on this - it won't get away or out from under this but it can push up against it - christ 50 -75 miles N or even NW is a world of difference with this storm as we are seeing modelled

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by snow247 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:08 pm

Just saw this posted on the other board.


Ominous final paragraph of Jack Beven's disco from NHC tonight:

The initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned baroclinic trough. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should decelerate and gradually turn more toward the north. The dynamical models agree that the surface center should make at least a partial cyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level low. After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS shows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system somewhat faster toward the east-northeast. The new forecast track shows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous track, then it is a little slower to move the system to the east-northeast later in the period. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast than the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may require some adjustment to the track in later advisories.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:Boiling


Latent Heat to feed the beast Scott. Is he stacked vertically by yuo rmaps - other board met said yes he was stacked but no maps to verify. IF this is so then we can see intensification once he gets to teh open waters

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:10 pm

Through 18 it still has it just bopping around off of NC lol This model looks about as confused as I am lmfao

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:11 pm

NHC maps:

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:13 pm

sroc4 wrote:Boiling


That's ridiculous.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:14 pm

RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:15 pm

Up the ante


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:RGEM is still a total miss it looks like. Unfortunately with no upper-level maps I have no idea why.

looks like rgem has 500mb vorticity a strung out mess.



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:17 pm

amugs wrote:Up the ante


Its amazing they have a 30-40% shot into northern MA!
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:19 pm

Orrrrrr maybe not. Starts really turning hard toward the end of its run. If it went out further it might have actually come really, really, REALLY close.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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