Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

amugs wrote:N

West lean, much? lol

Guys 25 miles sw from nyc how high would winds be ? Are we expecting anything this way ? Livingston nj

Voluntary Evacuation declared for all of Fire Island on Long Island

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I say anything on the table, euro and gfs favor more east tracks overall.

Yes we can't let our guard down but it's almost certain the worst of the storm would be for midnight through noon Monday. As far as the winds go it doesn't look like it's going to be a long-duration event

that's Def not what Franks forecast says.

Here's National Weather Service official forecast for my areaSunday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 20 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph.
Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 63. Northeast wind 28 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph.
Labor Day
Tropical storm conditions expected. A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 28 to 33 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph.
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.
Tuesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
No sustained tropical storm-force winds just tropical storm-force gusts and minimal at that. a little worse at the shore but that's pretty much in line with what I'm thinking

SoulSingMG wrote:Voluntary Evacuation declared for all of Fire Island on Long Island

about time lol

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:N

West lean, much? lol

Wow, most of those head west and do or almost make landfall and then go NE, it would be crazy if we get the western most of those west of the white line, thats a bit concerning, would def way up the winds here, I could even see hurricane advisories going up if it god that close, we will see, I am back home broke ope a nice amber woodchuck and am taking a better look at this on a computer.

Turned to the northeast now from what I can tell from visible imagery.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I say anything on the table, euro and gfs favor more east tracks overall.

Yes we can't let our guard down but it's almost certain the worst of the storm would be for midnight through noon Monday. As far as the winds go it doesn't look like it's going to be a long-duration event

that's Def not what Franks forecast says.

Here's National Weather Service official forecast for my areaSunday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 20 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 24 to 29 mph.
Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 63. Northeast wind 28 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph.
Labor Day
Tropical storm conditions expected. A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 28 to 33 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph.
Monday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.
Tuesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
No sustained tropical storm-force winds just tropical storm-force gusts and minimal at that.  a little worse at the shore but that's pretty much in line with what I'm thinking

Ehh we will see, those winds are still pretty good and NWS is often conservative with gusts. GEFS came in WAY west as posted from WU, if those western ones happen then winds will be much higher. I am just go wait and see what happens, I dunno how useful models are now but here are the rgem 900mb winds at hr 48, dunno how long they stick around after that if its accurate. These are closer to surface (54-56kts for out area, higher south) and prolly pretty close to what you said, but may be a bit higher, not sure depends on how they mix down, sometimes they do not need convection, if rain is not a issue.

rb924119 wrote:Turned to the northeast now from what I can tell from visible imagery.

NE would mean maybe its starting its gradual turn to the NE then N then NW, if that plays out? Look, its looking pretty healthy. 70mph storm, at 5pm I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane (is there a such thing as a subtropical hurricane?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/html5-vis-long.html

Artechmetals wrote:Guys 25 miles sw from nyc how high would winds be ? Are we expecting anything this way ? Livingston nj

I still think considerable consistent winds and moderate rain. I think your biggest issue in Livingston could be downed trees/branches causing property damage or outages. I think the flooding concerns are going to be more for the coast.

Damn generator was sent out for repairs and didn't get it back what timing

Artechmetals wrote:Damn generator was sent out for repairs and didn't get it back what timing

THAT'S IT GUYS IT'S COMING!!!! ARTECH WITH THE MOJO OVER HERE!!!! Ahahaha

You know it when I'm not prepared it happens !!

"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

Was the last post Frank made his final call, or may he be making a update if its warrented? Everyone saying different things but unless Frank changes things I am sticking with his forecast.

aiannone wrote:"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

Do you mean 3pm Sunday? today is Sat.

aiannone wrote:"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

They are probably following this forum and realized what an a$$ move that was...............LOL

Joe Snow wrote:

aiannone wrote:"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

They are probably following this forum and realized what an a$$ move that was...............LOL

You really think voluntary is going to be followed? I don't. And where is this info I do not see it anywhere online.

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

Do you mean 3pm Sunday? today is Sat.

That is a direct quote. The emergency has begun

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

aiannone wrote:"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

They are probably following this forum and realized what an a$$ move that was...............LOL

You really think voluntary is going to be followed? I don't.  And where is this info I do not see it anywhere online.

Usually people follow it and it was from a press conference.

aiannone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

Do you mean 3pm Sunday? today is Sat.

That is a direct quote. The emergency has begun

Thats a bit late, its 4:16pm lol, so are they to go back in time?

Hey guys...been running around helping neighbor and getting everything away outside...don't have time to read all the posts...does it still look to be bad for Jersey Shore...I am right near Sandy Hook.. TIA...hope the models were a little more consistent today!!

aiannone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

aiannone wrote:"UPDATE: Suffolk County Declares State of Emergency effective 3pm Saturday. There is also a voluntary evacuation for all of Fire Island which is recommended to be completed by 1pm Sunday."

They are probably following this forum and realized what an a$$ move that was...............LOL

You really think voluntary is going to be followed? I don't.  And where is this info I do not see it anywhere online.

Usually people follow it and it was from a press conference.

Good, I hope they do, with the GEFS now showing so far west and even possible landfall this could get serious again quick, models are not done. As said b4 I think it was less than 24 hrs before the blizzard and the models still didnt have a full grasp on snowfall extent. I wonder how many people saw the press conference being at BBQ etc. But I heard all beaches are closed so we know no one is on the beaches.

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys...been running around helping neighbor and getting everything away outside...don't have time to read all the posts...does it still look to be bad for Jersey Shore...I am right near Sandy Hook.. TIA...hope the models were a little more consistent today!!

Not really, east, west, north, all little jogs, some bigger, overnight it looked much further east, now kinda looks in between. Most recent GFS ensembles came in WAY west though.

It is EERILY quiet on here lol

SoulSingMG wrote:It is EERILY quiet on here lol

People trying have a good time before they can't prolly.

I'm going to be honest looking at this storm it doesn't look organized to me at all.