Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:39 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is Frank's blog?

Just posted.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:53 pm

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:BTW I'm off mobile now and on my laptop so I can do analysis Very Happy Very Happy  although my laptop is really old so my responses may be delayed a little for lack of computational capabilities ahaha

Good kid we need you here tonight - I am waning pretty fast  - that a bottle of Beringer Pinot Nior - FTW!!

I can't make any promises, though mugs; today's runs nearly put me over the edge. If tonight's head in the same direction I'm finding the nearest liquor store and treating myself to some top-shelf stuff. I can't take it anymore lol

A bottle of Gin and deuce baby - get ready things will start to be rollin in a few

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:57 pm

Oh jeeze 00z NAM, is a hair west as it exits into the ocean!
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by snow247 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:59 pm

A bit west and slower so far.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by WeatherBob on Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:59 pm

Very ominous forecast by Frank. I was warning people at work today and they were looking at me as if I were crazy. I told one co-worker who was going down to the jersey shore that the shore will get crushed. She looked at me like I am going anyway and don't care.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:03 pm

snow247 wrote:A bit west and slower so far.

H5 is 50 miles west compared to 12z. I don't like this.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:06 pm

If its 50 miles west up here thats all we need to get those 70+ mile winds well inland, that would be bad. I would however be at the beach flying a kite, jk
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:08 pm

Hr 24, a bit slower, and weaker but more tucked.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:09 pm

Also looks like there may be slightly less interaction than 12z, through 27, which might allow a slightly further north track as well. We shall see; I don't know for sure.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:09 pm

Hr 27 its south of the 18z, not sure what this will mean for the rest of the run being how its go jump all over.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by snow247 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:10 pm

Jumps east at hour 27..

NAM has no clue.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:13 pm

This is either going to swing way east and come way the heck west, or miss. I don't even know.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:This is either going to swing way east and come way the heck west, or miss. I don't even know.
That would be crazy if its a whole new solution and a miss, at hr 33 kinda looks like its turning around. I dunno either.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:20 pm

21Z SREFs are further north but further east. OMG JUST FIGURE IT OUT ALREADY!!!!!

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:20 pm

Nam intislized at 1001mb it's already stronger than that!
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:21 pm

Ahhhh here comes the westward shift at 39......how far can it get???

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:22 pm

Forget the NAM jesus it cant even get the MB right on initialization - we are sooo pathetic with this model - let see where it goes......

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:25 pm

amugs wrote:Forget the NAM jesus it cant even get the MB right on initialization - we are sooo pathetic with this model - let see where it goes......

Unfortunately neither can most models so far lol

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:25 pm

Full NHC update coming in soon, guessing its west and the wind chances shift west to put area in a high chance.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:26 pm

NAM looks like its continuing NE at hr 42. rb you said its turning?
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:27 pm

So far no rain for the area even close...
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by rb924119 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:28 pm

H5 is. I haven't been paying attention to the surface. I have a feeling models may try to chase the convection early on, hence the east shift on this run. Idk, just a hunch.

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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:32 pm

Ok hr 51 is turned, lets see!
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:H5 is. I haven't been paying attention to the surface. I have a feeling models may try to chase the convection early on, hence the east shift on this run. Idk, just a hunch.
Heard that b4, and we are still not in gr8 range of the NAM.
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Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:34 pm

H5 shows the center of the storm gest east then makes the turn west NW towards the coast at hr 45 but does so by the Delmarva

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