Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

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Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:34 pm

Almost Time


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by chief7 on Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:46 pm

can't wait to read the winter Outlook sitting at the computer and having a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup that I confiscated from my sons trick or treat bag

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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:50 pm

chief7 wrote:can't wait to read the winter Outlook sitting at the computer and having a Reese's Peanut Butter Cup that I confiscated from my sons trick or treat bag

Unfortunately, I have to ban you. I work for Mars Chocolate (M&M company) and can not associate with Hershey lovers.

Alright fine, won't ban you. Consider a Snickers bar next time.

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:17 pm

Ha. Love it Frank. One of these days you'll put a Frankzilla on the preview as well.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Isotherm on Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:55 pm

Bullish with that release date, Frank. I like the confidence. I'm thinking more toward the second week of November for me. Should be a fun winter to forecast given ENSO is weaker. As a consequence of which, I expect that we'll see much more divergence in the totality of LR outlooks on the blogosphere/internet this autumn.

Looking forward to reading it, and if anyone else plans to release one. It's a challenging, yet, concurrently, quite enjoyable task.
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:43 pm

Frank, very dramatic - showed it to my weather club student today about 40 minutes ago and they were all like woahhh, what's Godzilla, Frankzilla??

Looking forward to it and the complexity will be clearer than last winter overall. Not getting the QBO but hopefully it will do us good.

Isotherm, looking forward to yours as well as paul's from PSU - I will be sitting next to my fireplace and a merriam-webster dictionary deciphering your vocabulary its context!!
I'll have one on my site about the same time- need teh teachers convention to complete it. Will be fun!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Vinnydula on Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:00 pm

Top of trees starting to get color up here
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:53 pm

Bill Goodman at our NJWO meeting last night (he is from the Upton post) last night there is a lot of warmth from the Davis Straits to Greenland as indicated by the latest SST maps, and a cold pool south of Iceland, which, if it held up, would support a west-based -NAO. One cans ee here:





Interesting. Gave us a preliminary winter outlook and says that we have factors to look at:

ENSO - Equatorial pacific water  
    Cold/Warm
IO - Indian Ocean but did not say much other than it affects the MJO and it much cooler actually in a cold state
AMO - tripole of the Atlantic (not in harmony cold NA, Warm Mid and cool equatorial)
SST (Sea Surface Temperatures - Pacific and Atlantic)
     -/+ PDO
SAI (Snow Advance Index)/Siberian Snow at latitude 60N and above - for AO
QBO - he and I had a talk afterwards with this and even he said I do not know too much about this
Upper Air Pattern
   -/+ AO and NAO
Said in a nut shell he says a Neutral ENSO, +PDO, possibly a negative AO and NAO overall for winter (if he weer to make a prediction right now) and that we'll see a backloaded winter mid to late Jan flip of the switch to cold and snowy through about mid March.

If all holds together thinks we could possibly see some decent storms In Feb and March - quantify decent I asked - he said Winter Storm Warning types.

CPC - only uses ENSO to make their predictions is what he said so talk it with a grain of salt

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:41 pm

whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:27 pm

The entire world is on Fire!!!! Jamstec




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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:46 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?

No idea. Found it on YouTube

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?

No idea. Found it on YouTube

great choice as always!!
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by amugs on Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:34 pm

SST - this doesnt add up to the temp profile above


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:55 pm

Can't wait to track winter storms but it's just to far off for me to get eager yet. I'm still tracking tropics lol. I'll get to winter tracking in nov dec. Long range is so unpredictable but I am very interested to see if frank thinks as per his video we may see Godzilla or roids this winter.
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:whoo hooo!! love it!! can not wait...what a busy week this week have not had time to read the forum..thank you frank!! for making my day!!

ps..what is that music from?

No idea. Found it on YouTube
quite the computer wiz websites pretty professional youtube videos. Franks a master!
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Re: Winter Outlook 2016 - 2017 Preview

Post by HectorO on Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Can't wait to track winter storms but it's just to far off for me to get eager yet. I'm still tracking tropics lol. I'll get to winter tracking in nov dec. Long range is so unpredictable but I am very interested to see if frank thinks as per his video we may see Godzilla or roids this winter.

Ha, yea no kidding. A 4 day forecast is hard to be accurate with, a whole season is damn near impossible to predict.
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