HURRICANE MATTHEW

Page 5 of 32 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 18 ... 32  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:This image does a nice job of showing that the stronger / further north Matthew is, the further west he's likely to track. GFS definitely trending west.

Wouldnt the further west it goes make it more likely to get caught and retrograde? I suppose though if it went too far west then it would get picked up but do something different on the EC.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:30 am

Uh boy, a bit west and looks to be blocked from going OTS maybe repeat of 18z or similar...

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:45 am

Heavy rain and wind up here. Storm crashes into Cape hatteras. CMC hits us hard with rain and wind. Low comes up inside the benchmark.
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1694
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 28
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:46 am

Snow88 wrote:Heavy rain and wind up here. Storm crashes into Cape hatteras. CMC hits us hard with rain and wind. Low comes up inside the benchmark.
Lots and lot sof runs hitting up here in one way or another. Starting to think this is a real threat to be taken seriously.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:18 am

Navgem has a monster. 950 sub low.
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1694
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 28
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:57 am

Hmmm I had suspect that Euro may come east a bit and it did by a bit, the ensembles are even more interesting with many more in the atlantic than the GOM and the control is on the east coast instead of the GOM like the 12z was. So like I had said before thiinking the Euro and GFS meet in the middle for a EC landfall from carolinas north. NAVGEM as snow was talking about wow...

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:08 am


What a beast by the EURO! A 930 mb Cat 5 cane! Models are starting to converge on a east coast threat. The only issue is timing. At 240 hours, the GFS has Matthew making landfall in the mid atlantic while the EURO has the storm still in the Bahamas.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1044
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 51
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:12 am

I think its cuz the Euro slows and makes that SW dip before turning, if it doesnt do that I think timing will be similar to GFS and CMC. I have a hunch Euro is too slow. Only one that would have our area likely at day 12-15 instead of about 8 days out.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:38 am

The GFS is relentless to give us a strong TS or a hurricane depending on where it tracks, just offshore or hits carolinas first.  Still really starting to become concerning, the GFS has been steadfast on this, and with the euro going a bit further east of FL I think this could be coming into a bit of a solution, still a lot of time but I am seeing a bad situation unfolding.



Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:51 am; edited 1 time in total
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:42 am

Bout 6-10 inches of rain with this run and near hurricane force winds.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:52 am


jmanley32 wrote:Bout 6-10 inches of rain with this run and near hurricane force winds sustained.
Yea JMan. This run of the GFS shows a 24 hour major flooding event not to mention the hurricane force winds. With the way this hurricane season has gone with the way the models have underperformed, I'm sure Frank is trying to temper his excitement for a couple of more days before sounding the alarms.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1044
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 51
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:03 am

Good morning!!  So what additional information have we learned overnight from the 00z model runs regarding a possible US landfall.  Not much.  Again I urge everyone to refrain from predicting what it does after it exits the Caribean for a few more days.  I really love the graphic Frank showed regarding the last 8 runs on the GFS.  With each successive run it def is trending west.  

[/quote]

Here is what we do know, and I am pretty confident in what I'm about to say.  

I have looked at both GFS and Euro solns for the past 2 days and and by 72hrs from 00z overnight the system will be somewhere within the circle I drew just N of South America.  GFS has been consistently stronger and on the N side of the circle; whereas the Euro has been slight weaker and on the S side of the circle.  Its at about the 72-84 hr mark that we begin to see the track turn to the N and begin to accelerate its intensification.

The next thing I am beginning to gain confidence in is that the system will likely exit the Caribbean somewhere Between Haiti and Cuba indicated by the black lines that I have drawn.  That said I can still see a scenario, if the system still isn't named beyond day 3, where the track needs to shift west.



This is it.  This is all I am confident in at this time.  Byond day 7 is a mere guess at this time.  Remember this system will evolve in three phases.  We haven't even finished phase 1 yet.  Heck we are still only in the middle of phase 1.  We don't even have an organized tropical system with a closed LLC.   That said that might happen at any time.  I personally still believe it will take longer than people think.  Ive said it all along and see nothing to change that thinking at this time.  Phase 2, when it begins the turn N, doesn't begin for at least 3days still.

The variables:

1) GFS vs Euro still vary on the exact location and strength at day 3.
2) You can see by my map above the Euro is about 24hrs behind the GFS in gaining latitude and moves along the western flank of the cone.  Note: The positions for both were taken off their respective overnight 00z runs
3) The strength of the trough over the GOM is still modeled differently regarding its strength and position between the two models which is the reason for the differences in number 2 above.
4) The WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) A stronger further N system by day 3-4 and a stronger trough erodes the western flank of the WAR and weakness(between the Trough and WAR) and track is further E.  GFS.  The further S and weaker the system by day 3-4 and/or the weaker the trough backing into the GOM the slower and weaker the erosion of the WAR is and the weakness(between the Trough and WAR) and track ends up further west. Euro.  

All of the above involves phase 1 and two only.  Beyond this is so dependent on what happens in the 5-7day that trying to predict it is truly a waste of time...right now.  Once we have a closed LLC for models to initiate on, which may occur today or may still be 2-3days away, phase two and three will become much clearer.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4550
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:11 am

jmanley32 wrote:I think its cuz the Euro slows and makes that SW dip before turning, if it doesnt do that I think timing will be similar to GFS and CMC.  I have a hunch Euro is too slow. Only one that would have our area likely at day 12-15 instead of about 8 days out.

Euro is slower because the trough in the GOM is much weaker compared to the GFS. The weaker that trough the weaker the tugging force it has on the system. Combine that with the slight further S track the euro has and the weaker system, if the euro is modeling this part of the equation correctly then it will end up correct on timing. I personally think the Euro is going to win out on the track and intensity over the next 2-3 days meaning I think the Euro is correct on timing. Remember Hermine the GFS was too fast and corrected back with the euro with timing of it off the EC.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4550
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:13 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Bout 6-10 inches of rain with this run and near hurricane force winds sustained.
Yea JMan. This run of the GFS shows a 24 hour major flooding event not to mention the hurricane force winds. With the way this hurricane season has gone with the way the models have underperformed, I'm sure Frank is trying to temper his excitement for a couple of more days before sounding the alarms.
I dunno that frank would b excited rather concerned but yes in fact we should all temper as sroc just wrote out and reminds us that we don't even have mathew yet. But it is def fun to watch the model runs. All have been pretty unerbing on gfs and in a few days we will see what euro has in store for us posdibly.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:20 am

Recon already on its way. Already finding trop storm force winds just east of the islands. We shall see if they find a closed LLC.


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4550
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:27 am

sroc4 wrote:Recon already on its way.  Already finding trop storm force winds just east of the islands.  We shall see if they find a closed LLC.

Not just barely ts either. I bet we have mathew now but we need that closed low. Winds alone are not enough as u know.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:32 am

Regardless the islands not go b prepared for this only hours away by looks of where those winds are. Luckily it's not too bad.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:58 am

Damn I hate not having a decent computer at home >_< anyway, I have been analyzing last night's GFS and EURO suites and discovered something interesting, but because I don't have a computer I can't do a write up lol I might be able to do one at work, but that won't be until late today aha anyway, let me see if I can explain via mobile. The main difference between the two, besides the development of the storm itself, is the trough in the Gulf. We know that. We also know how the GFS has a cold bias for eastward propagating troughs. So, I looked back at forecasts of an eerily similar system........Hermine. It turns out that the GFS was depicting something similar to what it is showing now with respect to a secondary trough beneath and behind the main trough that ended up splitting to capture Hermine, although to a lesser degree. In the end, it over-modeled the strength and intensity of the interaction that the secondary trough had with Hermine, but accurately portrayed the capture further north. How does this relate to what is happening in the models now?

We clearly see a Gulf trough in both suites, with the GFS being much more bullish. But what's intriguing to me is how the trough embedded in the midlatitude flow further north and east is being depicted by BOTH ensembles. Again, we have a stout ridge spiking over eastern North America, but look at the trough immediately downstream of it; even in the ensembles, you can pick out a "tail" that lags behind the advancement of the main wave, and I'm really wondering if the models are not recognizing that a trough split might occur yet. Since it is October in this timeframe, the trough will be a bit deeper, which would mean that the split could occur further south. If it does, which quite honestly, the splitting is something we have seen a lot of this summer, especially the second half, and something that has been severely under modeled until the short range, I'm thinking that although the trough in the Gulf will have a little impact, this theoretical trough split in the western Atlantic will be the main player. Because it would be able to get further beneath the eastern ridge, I'm thinking it pulls a Hermine, but off of the Carolinas, which is also a region that has been plagued by "back door" systems this summer. If somebody wants to try to put together images and a follow-up demonstrating this, please feel free. But that's what I'm thinking about the modeling right now. Discuss!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3237
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 25
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:25 am

Interesting Ray. Brings me back to our convo regarding the "wake" of the exiting trough on Hermine pulling it further east than what was originally modeled. I see a few differences however in this set up that makes me think it won't behave quite the same. First is the angle at which it will be approaching as well as the speed. Hermine was exiting the Carolina coast with incredible momentum. 20-25mph if I'm not mistaken, moving SW to NE. Mathew is likely to be moving much slower and more from the south. Furthermore Mathew is also likely to be a deeper system so it's ability to be pulled by the exiting trough, in my mind at least, would likely be reduced relative to the Hermine set up.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4550
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:29 am

Wow,

Just catching up on the overnight and morning model runs. One thing that I am seeing is a more westward movement on this storm  but I have to disagree with some posts above - the EURO sat 12z the Thursday before hermine showed a hit into AC and after teh GFS run many including me self said OH SHT we are giongto be in for it - and then the EURO did it magic trick and said way east and then a retrograde whilst the GFS kept plugging away at a closer retrograde. The blocking then was totally modelled incorrectly as was teh speed of teh capture - literally both models sucked imo.

What we have a is an autumnal HP block - they are stronger that a summer block - can it be overemodelled yes but can it be unremodeled possibly. We have a trough entering from teh west and is timed to sit in the plains and look to tug  this back. Now are tehre other factors involved of course but as we conjure what MIGHT happen all options are on the table - one thing for sure it is an interesting set up and I am enjoying the model and its ens runs these past 48 hours.
If this does come up this coast - DON'T DOUBT MY SON !!!! We may have the boy who cried wolf effect since we saw what happened with Hermine and THAT would be bad.

Still a long ways to go but for anyone to be a naysayer at this point needs to learn.

IMHO GFS has the speed correc, EURO may adjust track to GFS going out and strength well that is going to be a fun one if it goes to a cat 3 or 4 or a 2. One thing for sure the waters will fuel him.

JB off twitter



Let me post the Heat Potential he will love sitting/tracking over

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8147
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:35 am

Navgem is still showing a monster storm

The speed is similiar to the GFS and GGEM
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1694
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 28
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:42 am

So basically Euro is on its own hanging down to the south for over 240 hrs. The suspense is killing me lol. Hopefully we have Mathew today so we get NHC data and cone etc. Wasn't last nights models the first to have recon data in then models?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by rb924119 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:47 am

It does, Scott. Hermine WAS moving northward though while it was in the Gulf prior to landfall, after which it started northeastward once it started becoming embedded in the southwesterly steering flow.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20160830/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html#picture

But you are definitely correct that it was booking it lol As for the intensity, guidance is certainly suggesting that it will be potent. However, I am leery of just how strong it will be able to get, partially because of how things have been this summer along with its current conditions and battles, but also because of the MJO state. Statistically, and I read a paper on this not too long ago, MJO phases 4-6 are not conducive for monster storms, especially ones that land fall in the US. There have only been a couple. The vast majority of systems are either cat 2 or weaker and most don't even make it.



rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3237
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 25
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:47 am

IN THE NAVY!!


JB saying Matthew could and will turn into a Monster type storm - hype or reality?? The potential is certainly there.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8147
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:So basically Euro is on its own hanging down to the south for over 240 hrs.  The suspense is killing me lol.  Hopefully we have Mathew today so we get NHC data and cone etc.  Wasn't last nights models the first to have recon data in then models?

Not on its own.  Its ensembles agree with it on timing but the ensemble mean still leans left of the operational regarding track. A red flag in my book that GFS is wrong



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4550
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 32 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 18 ... 32  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum