HURRICANE MATTHEW
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Sanchize06
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
So far recon not showing much in the way of a closed circulation at the surface. Mid level circulation is north of low level
sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Euro is slower than the GFS which would mean that the trough has a better chance of catching the storm.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
algae888 wrote:Yes skins. Pna neutral and nao positive doesn't call for a very Amplified pattern which we will need if you're looking for a Sandy type eventskinsfan1177 wrote:Hearing blocking has fizzled out on latest runs
Euro showing just this and bombs out over Cuba and is turning north interesting run here
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f228.png
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f234.png
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f240.png
Trough coming in fast. WOW.
Trough coming in fast. WOW.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
algae888 wrote:There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.
Why not? The trough is about to come down and swoop that up.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida
Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Correct. I said a direct hit. As per 12z euro setup i do think it hits somewhere along the Florida coast and rides up the coast making landfall again in the Carolinas and by the time it reaches us it would lose much of its strength. It either gets captured well south of us or will curve out to sea if the trough is Progressive. Again as per this euro run there would be no Sandy like capture into our areaSnow88 wrote:algae888 wrote:There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.
Why not? The trough is about to come down and swoop that up.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
jmanley32 wrote:Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.
Why would you think GFS is winning out? The storm has to turn north eventually. Its still a long way to go and Euro and GFS are far apart at hour 240.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Yes and the gfs always to fast. The euro has been consistant with soon to be Matthew heading southwest (at hr 72-96 12z today) before making the turn. A compromise between the two models looks to be the worst case scenario where matthew gains lat as the trough tries a capture. Still plenty of runs to goSnow88 wrote:algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida
Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
algae888 wrote:Yes and the gfs always to fast. The euro has been consistant with soon to be Matthew heading southwest (at hr 72-96 12z today) before making the turn. A compromise between the two models looks to be the worst case scenario where matthew gains lat as the trough tries a capture. Still plenty of runs to goSnow88 wrote:algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida
Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
Do you feel the Euro is too slow? I mean if it were to hit our area at the speed its going we arent looking until the following week probably. The GFS however may be too fast? And I dunno why I said the Euro was getting tromped by GFS, cuz I saw a turn to the north but its still not same track so NVM. WCS for who Al?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Yeah spoke too soon, still Euro is a bit east of the 00z. Negligible though. Still way to much time, and they are so far apart in speed.hyde345 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.
Why would you think GFS is winning out? The storm has to turn north eventually. Its still a long way to go and Euro and GFS are far apart at hour 240.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Woah 174 kt gusts!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
This would be bad for Florida.....
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Euro is faster than 00z its markedly N and maybe a bit east too, right off coast of Fl at 240 hrs vs down by cuba at 240 on 00z. 934mb and wind gusts to 132kts, my family down there would be crushed. I think this would ride coast and we would still see at least TS conditions, looks bit like Irene.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Recon still finding no closed circulation. No Mathew Yet.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
You can clearly see that between 48 and 72hrs is when we start to see the GFS and Euro differ. GFS slight more north and stronger, and Euro still weaker and further south. Cant wait to see the euro ensembles.
Hr 24 and 48 you can see position and strength of the system, atlantic ridge, Deep Layer trough all about the same.
Hr 72:
Hr 24 and 48 you can see position and strength of the system, atlantic ridge, Deep Layer trough all about the same.
Hr 72:
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Bernie's latest thoughts:
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/experts/video/2430839568001/bernie-rayno-s-video-blog?autoStart=true
http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/experts/video/2430839568001/bernie-rayno-s-video-blog?autoStart=true
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
What I really love about Bernie is he gets u back to reality before getting to excited. Instead of thinking it will head up the east coast he lays out the best solution. Let's all calm down about the gfs as we know it BS. GFS= Gullible forecast storm
Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
^ How do we know GFS is bullshit? The storm is a long time away.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW
Oh Boy-My in-laws are leaving for their cruise to Bermuda on Saturday...oh boy...
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