HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:40 pm

Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by amugs on Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:44 pm

algae888 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Hearing blocking has fizzled out on latest runs
Yes skins. Pna neutral and nao positive doesn't call for a very Amplified pattern which we will need if you're looking for a Sandy type event

Euro showing just this and bombs out over Cuba and is turning north interesting run here


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:52 pm

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:55 pm

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:56 pm

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by algae888 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:00 pm

There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:03 pm

algae888 wrote:There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.

Why not? The trough is about to come down and swoop that up.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by algae888 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:03 pm

The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:07 pm

algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida

Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by algae888 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:08 pm

Snow88 wrote:
algae888 wrote:There's no way Matthew can make a direct hit anywhere near our area with that setup on euro.

Why not? The trough is about to come down and swoop that up.
Correct. I said a direct hit. As per 12z euro setup i do think it hits somewhere along the Florida coast and rides up the coast making landfall again in the Carolinas and by the time it reaches us it would lose much of its strength. It either gets captured well south of us or will curve out to sea if the trough is Progressive. Again as per this euro run there would be no Sandy like capture into our area
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by hyde345 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.

Why would you think GFS is winning out? The storm has to turn north eventually. Its still a long way to go and Euro and GFS are far apart at hour 240.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by algae888 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:17 pm

Snow88 wrote:
algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida

Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
Yes and the gfs always to fast. The euro has been consistant with soon to be Matthew heading southwest (at hr 72-96 12z today) before making the turn. A compromise between the two models looks to be the worst case scenario where matthew gains lat as the trough tries a capture. Still plenty of runs to go
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:32 pm

algae888 wrote:
Snow88 wrote:
algae888 wrote:The three major models at hour 240 CMC well into the North Atlantic GFS Canadian maritimes Euro South Florida

Euro is sooooooooooooooooo slow lol
Yes and the gfs always to fast. The euro has been consistant with soon to be Matthew heading southwest (at hr 72-96 12z today) before making the turn. A compromise between the two models looks to be the worst case scenario where matthew gains lat as the trough tries a capture. Still plenty of runs to go

Do you feel the Euro is too slow? I mean if it were to hit our area at the speed its going we arent looking until the following week probably.  The GFS however may be too fast?  And I dunno why I said the Euro was getting tromped by GFS, cuz I saw a turn to the north but its still not same track so NVM. WCS for who Al?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:33 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro is heading north like gfs! Man if gfs wins out on euro...yes one run and not done yet. Will have see in coming days if this continues.

Why would you think GFS is winning out? The storm has to turn north eventually. Its still a long way to go and Euro and GFS are far apart at hour 240.
Yeah spoke too soon, still Euro is a bit east of the 00z. Negligible though. Still way to much time, and they are so far apart in speed.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:36 pm

Woah 174 kt gusts!

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:39 pm



This would be bad for Florida.....

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:40 pm

Euro is faster than 00z its markedly N and maybe a bit east too, right off coast of Fl at 240 hrs vs down by cuba at 240 on 00z. 934mb and wind gusts to 132kts, my family down there would be crushed. I think this would ride coast and we would still see at least TS conditions, looks bit like Irene.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:51 pm

Recon still finding no closed circulation. No Mathew Yet.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:12 pm

You can clearly see that between 48 and 72hrs is when we start to see the GFS and Euro differ. GFS slight more north and stronger, and Euro still weaker and further south. Cant wait to see the euro ensembles.

Hr 24 and 48 you can see position and strength of the system, atlantic ridge, Deep Layer trough all about the same.







Hr 72:



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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:14 pm


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:27 pm

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jake732 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:42 pm

What I really love about Bernie is he gets u back to reality before getting to excited. Instead of thinking it will head up the east coast he lays out the best solution. Let's all calm down about the gfs as we know it BS. GFS= Gullible forecast storm
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jake732 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:48 pm

Or GFS= gullible fantasy storm
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:53 pm

^ How do we know GFS is bullshit? The storm is a long time away.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:01 pm

Oh Boy-My in-laws are leaving for their cruise to Bermuda on Saturday...oh boy...
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

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