HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:37 am

CMC slams Maine . Storm comes all the way west from the ocean. After the storm leaves, the 850 line shows up lol
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 am

Impacts from 174 to 198 hrs for our area, wow, that will cause some problems to say the least. I can easily see hurricane force winds if thi run played out like bastardi said, so the trough was not a capture but a phase instead?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 am

Good wind maps come out in 10 minutes

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:40 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Good wind maps come out in 10 minutes
I will post the ones from wxbell. Isn't it possible like I said b4 though that it could be stronger than modeled?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:41 am

These were 18z 925mb winds...00z shuld be out soon.



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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

strong cat 1 off carolinas. 81.1 kts surface winds, not gusts.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

00z CMC


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

CMC

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f186.png?1364096147
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 am

Stu Ostro replying to Joe Bastardi (and I was JUST thinking this same thing a few min ago):

"On last couple runs of GFS it's as if the hurricane knows where the coastline is and wants to follow it"

We're going to be tracking Matthew for awhile and possibly talking ABOUT him for a long time after that.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:43 am

00z UKIE (only goes out this far)


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:43 am

Frank_Wx wrote:These were 18z 925mb winds...00z shuld be out soon.



Jeeze those sustained, so 70mph sustained in NYC area! Capr cod over 100mph dayumm.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:46 am

This run is even scarier if you look at the Hi-res GFS for purpose of intensity, 945 mb off the Jersey Shore

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by WeatherBob on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:46 am

That GFS track looks like an Irene and a Floyd track. All similar.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:46 am

Where do those wind maps you have come from frank, I like them somewhat better than wxbell.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:47 am

To evacuate that many people from the Florida coast to Maine would be mind boggling should that run unfold.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by WeatherBob on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:47 am

The GFS is putting on the "big squeeze play" by forcing the system up the coast.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:48 am

Sanchize06 wrote:This run is even scarier if you look at the Hi-res GFS for purpose of intensity, 945 mb off the Jersey Shore

And to think that it initialized 60 mb to high
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:48 am

GFS now comes back west and CMC showing a sharp turn phase back into Maine. With timing issues, that turn could occur further south, or eventually may trend back to a more realistic GFS like solution, but as it comes towards the Bahamas we should expect a better idea on track. Until then, expect more restless nights.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:49 am

Joe Snow wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:This run is even scarier if you look at the Hi-res GFS for purpose of intensity, 945 mb off the Jersey Shore

And to think that it initialized 60 mb to high

This may also in turn show the winds lower than actual intensity. Yikes, cuz they are pretty darn high as it is.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:49 am

An important thing to note is the models are struggling with Matthews current intensity. This may have big implications downstream.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:50 am

jmanley32 wrote:Where do those wind maps you have come from frank, I like them somewhat better than wxbell.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:51 am


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Where do those wind maps you have come from frank, I like them somewhat better than wxbell.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
GFS only shows out to 165, is it still loading?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by WeatherBob on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:52 am

That coastal front that the GFS portrays is very eerily similar to Floyd and Irene.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:54 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Thats not at landfall, thats well before.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

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