HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:09 am

Euro WAY east of Jamaica.............at hr 72
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:17 am

Cut into Haiti and continues NNE, way different from the GFS
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by devsman on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:21 am

Something tells me track will be out to sea tomorrow morning but miraculously be up the coast sunday morning.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:25 am

The differences within 48 hours alone in track between the GFS and EURO is stunning. GFS landfalls in Jamaica, while EURO makes a VERY sharp turn north between 24 and 48 hours. Probably a blend between the two...

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:29 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The differences within 48 hours alone in track between the GFS and EURO is stunning. GFS landfalls in Jamaica, while EURO makes a VERY sharp turn north between 24 and 48 hours. Probably a blend between the two...

Very different............
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:34 am

The EURO is well east of the GFS because it does not break down or quickly eject the ULL like the GFS does. This keeps heights over the east coast dampened. That ULL (the system giving us rain and clouds this weekend) is very important to this forecast. If it remains over the Northeast, Matthew is likely to stay out to sea. If it ejects east into the north Atlantic, that allows the WAR and ridge building over the Northeast to link together (ridge bridge). But the EURO keeps the ULL south of the ridge and acts as a barrier.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:44 am

Also, the short term track of Matthew is pretty critical too. Between 24 and 48 hours, the EURO has a sharp turn north that brough Matthew pretty far east of Jamaica. EURO hand a landfall in Haiti pretty much. GFS has a landfall in Jamaica. That means the initial capture from the trough over the Gulf is stronger on the GFS giving the storm more momentum to pivot west-northwest toward Florida. The EURO is still captured, but the strong hurricane is able to resist some of the 'tug' the trough tries to give it

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:44 am

And there it goes OTS at 192 on the Euro, model mayhem, need to sleep...............back at it tomorrow.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:45 am

We may know the track of this storm by Sunday. If the storm makes landfall in Haiti, he's likely to remain out to sea. If landfall is in Jamaica, he has a 'chance' to impact the east coast like the GFS suggests. But even a landfall in Jamaica does not gurantee landfall here, but it would leave the option on the table. IMO, if he makes landfall in Haiti Matthew has no chance to landfall on east coast.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:48 am

Wow at the NAVGEM, hooking into NYC, not completely sold on an OTS solution although still a good possibility.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:04 am

Euro still slow and well to the south and east.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:26 am

Euro is out to lunch with Matthew–has been all over the place. Didn't it stall him for 3 days the previous run? Neutral

More importantly, check out this 00z NHC consensus; tightening west.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:44 am

Part of me wonders if this could be a Joaquin part II and the fact it dipped south and stregnthened so much may cause it to slow and perhaps miss the phase and skirt well out to sea like the EURO has been consistent on showing, and the CMC initally before later capturing but not early enough to affect our area. Point being, I think we need to see obviously what track it takes through the islands to get a better idea of where it will go downstream, and how its speed keeps up, whether it slows down or relatively maintains speed or gradually speeds up as it turns to the north.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:01 am

A long way to go with this.  6z already headed back to the ULL sticking around longer and stronger compared to 00z. Actually is trying to reform it and cut it off again east of NE. This will likely be an OTS soln

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:14 am

WAR still trying to fight off a turn however later in the run. Not quite as active at 6am on a Sat when everyone was up all night. I feel like I'm hearing my own echo in a empty large hall. Clearly there was mayhem in here the night before as there is garbage and peanuts littered all over the place. Hello hello hello

Ok now I'm just cracking myself up

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:18 am

I'm here. Euro ots huh love having this model disagreement. The NAVGEM holy crap. 06z gfs doesn't look like it will b a hit war looks weak.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:20 am

jmanley32 wrote:I'm here. Euro ots huh love having this model disagreement. The NAVGEM holy crap. 06z gfs doesn't look like it will b a hit war looks weak.

Out to 150 on Trop Tidbits site. War buids back with vengeance. By 150 its centered exaxtly as 00z. Trough is not as neutral though

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 5th-6th = 3"
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Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:23 am

Okay now the gfs is pick up on thst lp the cmc had east of matt. It's actually now marked on nhc site. Seems to push the ridging away. This is a new development. Think the gfs is otl with thst?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:28 am

Oh its ever so close
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:31 am

Well not completely ots but did not make a hook. Quite similar to 00z gfs I may have go to boston.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:54 am

Ensembles

www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew?map=ensmodel&MR=1

Seems like its either direct hit, scrape and New England hit, or OTS as the main solutions at this time.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:14 am

sroc4 wrote:WAR still trying to fight off a turn however later in the run.  Not quite as active at 6am on a Sat when everyone was up all night.  I feel like I'm hearing my own echo in a empty large hall.  Clearly there was mayhem in here the night before as there is garbage and peanuts littered all over the place.  Hello hello hello

Ok now I'm just cracking myself up
Lol good morning...just woke up so first thing I have to do is grab my pad and see the latest..was up for both runs last night what a wild ride...I love seeing all this,but I really hope models show it going out to sea....

Crazy models.....
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by rb924119 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:33 am

I'm taking everything lightly right now. The fact that there is so much consistency in inconsistency amongst the models just proves that this is an incredibly complex and fluid situation, as Frank mentioned earlier on. I think the intensity of the system is playing a role, as no global model is resolving it, and I think that is having an impact on the track. Secondly, we need to see how the Gulf of Mexico trough behaves, because that will have a hand in determining how much northwest momentum Matthrw will have early on, if any. Lastly, we need to see exactly how this pesky cutoff behaves and evolves, as well as how the western trough evolves. How deep it can get will play a large role. It seems that only thing we have agreement with is a very progressive eastern Pacific, which still suggests an eventual return to an out to sea scenario in my opinion. I am still standing firm with initial call, as there is just too much uncertainty still to sway me in any other particular direction. Good morning everybody, btw ahaha I was up lurking last night but didn't post anything. You guys kept me plenty updated on the models while I had a very important date with my Xbox and Gears of War lmfaooo

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:38 am

Ive been thinking about a few things here.  We know its the trough currently in the east that splits and the piece that backs SW into the GOM is what creates the initial weakness in the ridging over the GOM and W Caribbean and will turn Mathew northwest.  Once he gets to the edge of the WAR he turns N.





The northern piece of the split we have been monitoring is what we are hoping lifts out NE faster so it doesn't lead to the weakness and the OTS recurve.  A faster exiting ULL in the NE allows the WAR to build back and the "ridge bridge" can develop blocking the recurve and allowing time for the approaching trough from the west to capture it.  We have been focusing on ULL in the NE and its timing and strength as a key to this and rightfully so, but I believe the southern piece of the split trough and how intimately linked it is to our system, may hold the key.  Models still differ on this.   




Almost a year ago to the day, when examining what happened with Joaquin we remained focused on the idea that the big ULL in the SE was going to be the dominant feature that would pick him up and swing him into the coast.  However it ended up being this small seemingly innocuous ULL out in the Atlantic that ended up being the most important piece to the puzzle.  This seemingly B-9 looking feature in the Atlantic held onto Joaquin just long enough to keep it far enough away from a full capture by the ULL and the block had a chance to break down and out he went.  See the full blog here:  http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t585-a-discussion-on-the-track-of-major-hurricane-joaquin-oct-2nd-2015#67922  

" />

So where am I going with this?  To understand lets look at a few more frames from last nights GFS 00z.  I believe that the trough retrograding SW through the GOM and into central America has an almost Fujiwhara effect on our system, holding onto it, and slinging it in closer to the coast (at least modeled here).  Now typically a true Fujiwhara effect involves the interactions between two tropical systems in close proximity to each other.  (http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu01met/wxphe/ele_fujiwhara_e.htm)  But when looking at how this is modeled, esp on the GFS, there is a clear focal point along an axis at which the two interact before Mathew breaks away and gets captured by the trough.  







How long can this feature hold onto Mathew before he becomes influenced by the other players?  I believe the longer and stronger these two pieces "dance" the more time the WAR and N ridge can build their bridge trapping Mathew.  Then of course the final piece to the puzzle is how deep, and what kind of trough axis is there when it approaches from the west, and what kind of capture, if any occurs?  There are still vast differences in how strong this interaction is between GFS and Euro.  Euro breaks away very quickly because it has the ULL weaker, and the track further east than the GFS coming out of the Caribbean.  Its been said many many times, but I feel it necessary now more than ever, we still have a lot to get through before we know the final outcome, try not to hang your hat on any one soln just yet.      

WE TRACK!!!What a Face

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

Post by rb924119 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:50 am

Nice, Scott!! I can definitely agree with that. If you recall, that was one of the rings I mentioned in my piece the other day. At first I didn't think it was going to be too strong, then modeling came into a consensus that it was going to be deeper, and now it's split; GFS is significantly deeper than the EURO again lmfao 06z GFS seemed very weak to me, though, with respect to that trough, and it still managed a partial capture. It's insanity.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW

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