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HURRICANE MATTHEW

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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:38 am

Ive been thinking about a few things here.  We know its the trough currently in the east that splits and the piece that backs SW into the GOM is what creates the initial weakness in the ridging over the GOM and W Caribbean and will turn Mathew northwest.  Once he gets to the edge of the WAR he turns N.

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z526
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z527
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z528

The northern piece of the split we have been monitoring is what we are hoping lifts out NE faster so it doesn't lead to the weakness and the OTS recurve.  A faster exiting ULL in the NE allows the WAR to build back and the "ridge bridge" can develop blocking the recurve and allowing time for the approaching trough from the west to capture it.  We have been focusing on ULL in the NE and its timing and strength as a key to this and rightfully so, but I believe the southern piece of the split trough and how intimately linked it is to our system, may hold the key.  Models still differ on this.   

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z529


Almost a year ago to the day, when examining what happened with Joaquin we remained focused on the idea that the big ULL in the SE was going to be the dominant feature that would pick him up and swing him into the coast.  However it ended up being this small seemingly innocuous ULL out in the Atlantic that ended up being the most important piece to the puzzle.  This seemingly B-9 looking feature in the Atlantic held onto Joaquin just long enough to keep it far enough away from a full capture by the ULL and the block had a chance to break down and out he went.  See the full blog here:  https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t585-a-discussion-on-the-track-of-major-hurricane-joaquin-oct-2nd-2015#67922  

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 <a href=HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z511" />

So where am I going with this?  To understand lets look at a few more frames from last nights GFS 00z.  I believe that the trough retrograding SW through the GOM and into central America has an almost Fujiwhara effect on our system, holding onto it, and slinging it in closer to the coast (at least modeled here).  Now typically a true Fujiwhara effect involves the interactions between two tropical systems in close proximity to each other.  (http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu01met/wxphe/ele_fujiwhara_e.htm)  But when looking at how this is modeled, esp on the GFS, there is a clear focal point along an axis at which the two interact before Mathew breaks away and gets captured by the trough.  

HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z530
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z531
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z532
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z533
HURRICANE MATTHEW   - Page 32 Gfs_z534

How long can this feature hold onto Mathew before he becomes influenced by the other players?  I believe the longer and stronger these two pieces "dance" the more time the WAR and N ridge can build their bridge trapping Mathew.  Then of course the final piece to the puzzle is how deep, and what kind of trough axis is there when it approaches from the west, and what kind of capture, if any occurs?  There are still vast differences in how strong this interaction is between GFS and Euro.  Euro breaks away very quickly because it has the ULL weaker, and the track further east than the GFS coming out of the Caribbean.  Its been said many many times, but I feel it necessary now more than ever, we still have a lot to get through before we know the final outcome, try not to hang your hat on any one soln just yet.      

WE TRACK!!!What a Face

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Post by rb924119 Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:50 am

Nice, Scott!! I can definitely agree with that. If you recall, that was one of the rings I mentioned in my piece the other day. At first I didn't think it was going to be too strong, then modeling came into a consensus that it was going to be deeper, and now it's split; GFS is significantly deeper than the EURO again lmfao 06z GFS seemed very weak to me, though, with respect to that trough, and it still managed a partial capture. It's insanity.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:52 am

SROC:

You always do a great job of explaining...and the pictures always do the job of helping even some of us novices understand what is going on!!

Ps...how are the girls in the office handling all of this tracking?
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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:00 am

I started a new thread for the next phase to the system so lets cont discussion there.  

I absolutely remember that Ray and in part inspired the write up.  Weatherwatchermom Thank you! And they are actually starting to ask me questions about it because now other outlets are talking about it.  lol.  I keep telling them Ill give you as little or as much detail on the possibilities as you want.  lol!

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