HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:55 am

First off its only a matter of time before we get the turn.  Matthew's track is now clearly due west and will likely take the turn some time today or tonight.
 





Current steering maps show the weakness is right on the cusp of allowing the turn.



Ive been thinking about a few things here after examining the models this morning.  We know its the trough currently in the east that splits and the piece that backs SW into the GOM is what creates the initial weakness in the ridging over the GOM and W Caribbean and will turn Mathew northwest.  Once he gets to the edge of the WAR he turns N.





The northern piece of the split we have been monitoring is what we are hoping lifts out NE faster so it doesn't lead to the weakness in the Atlantic and the OTS recurve.  A faster exiting ULL in the NE allows the WAR to build back and the "ridge bridge" can develop blocking the recurve and allowing time for the approaching trough from the west to capture it.  We have been focusing on ULL in the NE and its timing and strength as a key to this and rightfully so, but I believe the southern piece of the split trough and how intimately linked it is to our system, may hold the key.  Models still differ on this.  




Almost a year ago to the day, when examining what happened with Joaquin we remained focused on the idea that the big ULL in the SE was going to be the dominant feature that would pick him up and swing him into the coast.  However it ended up being this small seemingly innocuous ULL out in the Atlantic that ended up being the most important piece to the puzzle.  This seemingly B-9 looking feature in the Atlantic held onto Joaquin just long enough to keep it far enough away from a full capture by the ULL and the block had a chance to break down and out he went.  See the full blog here:  http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t585-a-discussion-on-the-track-of-major-hurricane-joaquin-oct-2nd-2015#67922  

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So where am I going with this?  To understand lets look at a few more frames from last nights GFS 00z.  I believe that the trough retrograding SW through the GOM and into central America has an almost Fujiwhara effect on our system, holding onto it, and slinging it in closer to the coast (at least modeled here).  Now typically a true Fujiwhara effect involves the interactions between two tropical systems in close proximity to each other.  (http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu01met/wxphe/ele_fujiwhara_e.htm)  But when looking at how this is modeled, esp on the GFS, there is a clear focal point along an axis at which the two interact before Mathew breaks away and gets captured by the trough.  







How long can this feature hold onto Mathew before he becomes influenced by the other players?  I believe the longer and stronger these two pieces "dance" the more time the WAR and N ridge can build their bridge trapping Mathew.  Then of course the final piece to the puzzle is how deep, and what kind of trough axis is there when it approaches from the west, and what kind of capture, if any occurs?  There are still vast differences in how strong this interaction is between GFS and Euro.  Euro breaks away very quickly because it has the ULL weaker, and the track further east than the GFS coming out of the Caribbean.  Its been said many many times, but I feel it necessary now more than ever, we still have a lot to get through before we know the final outcome, try not to hang your hat on any one soln just yet.      

WE TRACK!!!What a Face


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:32 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:15 am

Its the NAVGEM but the 6z run seems to be ready to follow suit with the 0z before it truncates at 144 with a 950s low off the Carolinas coast. Reaching for the trough and strong looking ridge in place. Guidance is still all over the place unsurprisingly.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:21 am

FWIW the 6z GFDL has the storm at its deepest, 921mb, off the Carolina coast moving north about to run into the block with a strong east-south-easterly flow into the coast, not good. This is really going to be a long week....
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW the 6z GFDL has the storm at its deepest, 921mb, off the Carolina coast moving north about to run into the block with a strong east-south-easterly flow into the coast, not good. This is really going to be a long week....

Yes a long week what's not good?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:37 am

^ 6z GFDL hurricane model loop, looks to me like it would hook back in after run truncates, and actually gets to 918mb off Florida!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100106&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=24
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:09 am

[quote="NjWeatherGuy"]^ 6z GFDL hurricane model loop, looks to me like it would hook back in after run truncates, and actually gets to 918mb off Florida!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100106&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=24[/quote

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:20 am

Nice write up Scott and agree. I alluded to this in my posts last night too. If the track is over Jamaica, the Gulf trough will have much more tug on Matthew whereas a track into Haiti will have less influence on Matthew.

His short term track is key.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:23 am

Observations show Matthew slowing down, slightly weakening, and could be turning more north than northwest. If true, EURO could be correct with track.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:36 am

12z dynamical model show landfall in eastern Cuba which is well west of the EURO. But, less show landfall in Jamaica signaling to me he's going to move north today to gain latitude. Jamaica hasn't had a direct landfall on the south side since the 1800s. 


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:45 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Observations show Matthew slowing down, slightly weakening, and could be turning more north than northwest. If true, EURO could be correct with track.

I'm not sure I see much of a turn NW yet Frank.  Maybe slight N of W at the end of the loop.  But it also could be because likely the eye wall is getting restructured.  What is that called again?


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:47 am

Latest recon still has it at 13.4* N

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:50 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Observations show Matthew slowing down, slightly weakening, and could be turning more north than northwest. If true, EURO could be correct with track.

I'm not sure I see much of a turn NW yet Frank.  Maybe slight N of W at the end of the loop.  But it also could be because likely the eye wall is getting restructured.  What is that called again?


That's a much better animation than what I saw on Twitter.  Yeah, still looks more west. Good. 

Eyewall replacement cycle

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:51 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Observations show Matthew slowing down, slightly weakening, and could be turning more north than northwest. If true, EURO could be correct with track.

I'm not sure I see much of a turn NW yet Frank.  Maybe slight N of W at the end of the loop.  But it also could be because likely the eye wall is getting restructured.  What is that called again?


That's a much better animation than what I saw on Twitter.  Yeah, still looks more west. Good. 

Eyewall replacement cycle

That's right ERC. UKMET on day 7:


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:53 am

Wait, UKMET should not have a Day 7. BUT, if that's right, major disagreement with EURO. Red flag.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:57 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wait, UKMET should not have a Day 7. BUT, if that's right, major disagreement with EURO. Red flag.
The added a extra day just for fun? LOL Red flag in what respect, that the Euro may be wrong? The UKMET does come more in line with the GFS so does NAVGEM. Euro is really on its own.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:01 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wait, UKMET should not have a Day 7. BUT, if that's right, major disagreement with EURO. Red flag.

Yeah check out this site Frank. Rutgers. Will be usefull in winter

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:07 am

In the short term, GFS is closers to official track than EURO. 


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:28 am

Matthew is still moving west right now at 73 moving towards 74. GFS turns it at 76 and Euro at 74.

If it doesn't turn asap, the Euro will be wrong.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:35 am

Snow88 wrote:Matthew is still moving west right now  at 73 moving towards 74. GFS turns it at 76 and Euro at 74.

If it doesn't turn asap, the Euro will be wrong.

Can you show satellite pic.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:48 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Observations show Matthew slowing down, slightly weakening, and could be turning more north than northwest. If true, EURO could be correct with track.

I'm not sure I see much of a turn NW yet Frank.  Maybe slight N of W at the end of the loop.  But it also could be because likely the eye wall is getting restructured.  What is that called again?


That's a much better animation than what I saw on Twitter.  Yeah, still looks more west. Good. 

Eyewall replacement cycle

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:50 am

Snow88 wrote:Matthew is still moving west right now  at 73 moving towards 74. GFS turns it at 76 and Euro at 74.

If it doesn't turn asap, the Euro will be wrong.
Euro is wrong it's been having to many issues with this storm since b4 he formed. The gfs has been most consistent.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:56 am

11am 145 winds. Cone shifted bit left note last dot major again once heading out bahamas.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:58 am

Well I may b wrong as they have the turn b4 76w. But the lr does not agree with euro. Just curious how many miles is each latitude longitude apart. Like how many hrs will it take to go to 76w at 6mph.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:01 am

So does that mean if the turn is b4 75w the rest of euro track will b right? That's such a subtle difference I can't see thst changing whole track.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:19 am

jmanley32 wrote:Well I may b wrong as they have the turn b4 76w. But the lr does not agree with euro. Just curious how many miles is each latitude longitude apart. Like how many hrs will it take to go to 76w at 6mph.

latitde are approx 69 mi apart...longitude varies if I am not mistaken depending how close to equator(farthest apart) and how close to poles(closest).(son just had this for SS last week...)


http://www.stevemorse.org/nearest/distance.php  found this site might help you calculate
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