HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

So does that mean if the turn is b4 75w the rest of euro track will b right? That's such a subtle difference I can't see thst changing whole track.

jmanley32 wrote:Well I may b wrong as they have the turn b4 76w. But the lr does not agree with euro. Just curious how many miles is each latitude longitude apart. Like how many hrs will it take to go to 76w at 6mph.

latitde are approx 69 mi apart...longitude varies if I am not mistaken depending how close to equator(farthest apart) and how close to poles(closest).(son just had this for SS last week...)


http://www.stevemorse.org/nearest/distance.php  found this site might help you calculate

gfs still starting at 1000mb.

No, look at High Res. It's 966mb

Frank_Wx wrote:No, look at High Res. It's 966mb

Oh ya right, lol and I was the one that told you where to find it lol, I am as sick as a dog brain not working so well, still 966 is too high but much closer.

Its weird that it cannot show the pressure of the winds when its near land or over, i read that it has something to do with the way the parameters of the model image are produced, you think they could change that.

Frank_Wx wrote:Early impression is blah. ULL is dug into NE while 00z had it exiting offshore. Track is closer to EURO than it is 00z GFS.

It's closer to the 6z GFS

At 141, trough is really digging.

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/12z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f159.png?1364096147

This is looking dangerous.

Hearing latest run beset shore is demolished not good

WOW

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/12z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f189.png?1364096147

I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!

12z GFS ended up west of 6z

Wow 12z GFS!! Right up the coast dayumm, I did not expect that honestly. LI express 1938 very similar, and hazel.

Looks like the ridge powered through the ULL and the storm found a way up the coast. Incredible...

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!

The last 3 GFS runs have been fairly consistent.

wait...I thought Frank said it was a blah run??? tracking closer to the euro...can someone explain please...

forget it I see frank was posting same time as me...can't delete..

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!

You bet your arse this is dangerous for the shores of Del up through NE with tis run.

Peeps just catching up - SROC great write up - next 24-36 hours crucial imo as to where my boy goes - come on he wants to come to pappa - he has and will fight the whole way though - ELI landfall.

Pretty much everyone in the area gets it bad, pretty well inland, a smidge west and in makes a central LI hit, that be even worse. Not time yet to sound the alarm but yeah GFS has been getting more consistent on no OTS. So if we get the turn past 74W does that mean the rest of the Euro is likely wrong too?

958 mb on approach, cant see the pressure on Hi-res after that. This go be a beast, Wouldnt be surprised to see intensity greater than what GFS shows.

Ukie is even further west than the GFS . Right near Florida.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

jmanley32 wrote:Pretty much everyone in the area gets it bad, pretty well inland, a smidge west and in makes a central LI hit, that be even worse.  Not time yet to sound the alarm but yeah GFS has been getting more consistent on no OTS.  So if we get the turn past 74W does that mean the rest of the Euro is likely wrong too?

JMAN - we have ALOT of variables on the table to effect the track so we cant just go by what tis model is saying. No alarms sounding until I Frank gives the All Call. Temper the excitement.

Matthew is moving south now haha. 

Honestly, models have no clue. There's many ways for this storm to hit us unfortunately. GFS just showed us how ULL may not mean much if the trough and ridge is strong.