HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:36 am

gfs still starting at 1000mb.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:38 am

No, look at High Res. It's 966mb

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:45 am

Frank_Wx wrote:No, look at High Res. It's 966mb
Oh ya right, lol and I was the one that told you where to find it lol, I am as sick as a dog brain not working so well, still 966 is too high but much closer.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:46 am

Its weird that it cannot show the pressure of the winds when its near land or over, i read that it has something to do with the way the parameters of the model image are produced, you think they could change that.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:52 am

Early impression is blah. ULL is dug into NE while 00z had it exiting offshore. Track is closer to EURO than it is 00z GFS.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:58 am

ULL stuck under the ridge. H5 is much different than 00z GFS. Probably will be east of 06z GFS this run. Off to the gym, ciao. 

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Early impression is blah. ULL is dug into NE while 00z had it exiting offshore. Track is closer to EURO than it is 00z GFS.

It's closer to the 6z GFS
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:14 pm

At 141, trough is really digging.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:19 pm

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by hyde345 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:26 pm

This is looking dangerous.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:27 pm

Hearing latest run beset shore is demolished not good
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:28 pm

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:29 pm

I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:31 pm

12z GFS ended up west of 6z
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:32 pm

Wow 12z GFS!! Right up the coast dayumm, I did not expect that honestly. LI express 1938 very similar, and hazel.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:35 pm

Looks like the ridge powered through the ULL and the storm found a way up the coast. Incredible...


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by hyde345 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:36 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!

The last 3 GFS runs have been fairly consistent.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:36 pm

wait...I thought Frank said it was a blah run??? tracking closer to the euro...can someone explain please... Question

forget it I see frank was posting same time as me...can't delete..



Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:36 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm really starting to worth here along coastal new jersey but with such differences run to run can't let everyone now yet ugh!!!



You bet your arse this is dangerous for the shores of Del up through NE with tis run.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:38 pm

Peeps just catching up - SROC great write up - next 24-36 hours crucial imo as to where my boy goes - come on he wants to come to pappa - he has and will fight the whole way though - ELI landfall.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:39 pm

Pretty much everyone in the area gets it bad, pretty well inland, a smidge west and in makes a central LI hit, that be even worse. Not time yet to sound the alarm but yeah GFS has been getting more consistent on no OTS. So if we get the turn past 74W does that mean the rest of the Euro is likely wrong too?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:42 pm

958 mb on approach, cant see the pressure on Hi-res after that. This go be a beast, Wouldnt be surprised to see intensity greater than what GFS shows.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:49 pm

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Pretty much everyone in the area gets it bad, pretty well inland, a smidge west and in makes a central LI hit, that be even worse.  Not time yet to sound the alarm but yeah GFS has been getting more consistent on no OTS.  So if we get the turn past 74W does that mean the rest of the Euro is likely wrong too?

JMAN - we have ALOT of variables on the table to effect the track so we cant just go by what tis model is saying. No alarms sounding until I Frank gives the All Call. Temper the excitement.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:54 pm

Matthew is moving south now haha. 

Honestly, models have no clue. There's many ways for this storm to hit us unfortunately. GFS just showed us how ULL may not mean much if the trough and ridge is strong.

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