HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:19 am

Canadian, wow.





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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:19 am

Dayumm, NYC bulls eye for rain, this would cause terrible flooding. 8 inches IMBY.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100400/gfs_apcpn_neus_24.png
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:21 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Looks like it manages to partially capture it at hr 126, go figure

The Atlantic saved us here. Weaker or further east WAR promoted a northerly motion for Matthew. The trough and PAC flow was worse than 18z but we still managed to get him up here.

Yeah, it allowed it to come north and make a landfall. Also that run was a little quicker, had it been a little slower may have missed and went out. Definitely a little more confident in the EURO then I was earlier though because the PAC doesn't look good and the trough is getting a little progressive

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:21 am

Yeah looks like about 7" of rain if my tired eyes are seeing it right

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:25 am

Michael Palmer (MET)

"If 00z GFS verifies, it's a worst case scenario from #Matthew w/hurricane force winds/gusts from #Florida to #Maine."
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:27 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Michael Palmer (MET)

"If 00z GFS verifies, it's a worst case scenario from #Matthew w/hurricane force winds/gusts from #Florida to #Maine."

I looked at all the wind maps and didn't see hurricane gusts here but maybe its not showing right. Mets have better tools maybe.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:28 am

Btw, that city in Haiti I mentioned a couple hours ago? Les Cayes? Their weather station has now stopped reporting after sustained winds of over 82 mph & gusts to 110. Scary situation down there.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:29 am

CMC crushes the whole northeast with a boatload of rain
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:35 am

Winds at 925mb on 00z GFS hit 60-70kts (70-90kts not far offshore, clip LI and cape cod gets hit dead on) in some areas sustained (maybe close to hurricane gusts?), kind of a weird split at one point.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:43 am

Is this true saw it posted on a baord, wanted to know how close the 925mb winds are to actual speeds at the surface during a hurricane. This seems to say they would be the same?

"That would mean that the 925mb height would actually be at sea level in a very strong hurricane with a central pressure equal to that or below."
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:46 am

Ukie is similiar to the GFS and GGEM
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:21 am

aiannone wrote:

GFS is much more robust with sustained winds vs. CMC which is about 10mb deeper and similar track. About 10-15mph vs about 30-40mph on the GFS. Climo tells me the CMC is more accurate as winds typically have a hard time filtering down to the lower levels inland thru all that precip esp. With a weaker low. Irene for example was not so windy but the rain was the main issue for many areas. Unless the low the sub 970mb I dont see winds being a major issue except possibly at the immediate coast and of course depending on how close the low tracks. If its far offshore it will be less of an issue or if it runs inland and weaker same thing. However worst case would be a strong storm hugging the coast like the earlier JMA run today.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:24 am

00z EURO at hr 78 and latest GFS agree for once, taking Matthew oh-so-close to the FL coastline and then dancing him LITERALLY along the coast toward NC...
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:32 am

...and beyond NC (where no landfall happens) it heads out to sea on an ENE trajectory. Still no long range agreement.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:57 am

SoulSingMG wrote:...and beyond NC (where no landfall happens) it heads out to sea on an ENE trajectory. Still no long range agreement.

EURO seems heavily influenced by future Nicole, seems to try to steer Matthew to the south, but I dont think that tiny over 1000mb low would be able to affect Matthew's movement and still think the EURO is too slow but it could be correct because I said earlier storms usually gain speed as they gain latitude. While this is usually the case its not always as with oddballs like Hermine and others that can sit off the coast and just zip off to the east without affecting land. This scenario, however, I believe is becoming less likely.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:40 am

The euro is west of 12z if u look at smaller incremental hr stepsand it gets precipitation into the area and actually retrograde to cape cod giving them hurricane force gusts. If u watch the map with the big jumps u miss all thst. It made a big jump toward gfs. Unless others that saw ts do not agree. And euro is closest to the area at about 144 hrs which is much closer in line with gfs timing. 12z I bet it's further west than 00z as it passes this way.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:34 am

Matthew this morning looks as impressive as ever. Haiti will be rocked. Those people will need help.


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:42 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Matthew this morning looks as impressive as ever. Haiti will be rocked. Those people will need help.


The horrible fact is they have been forgotten they never fully recovered from the earth quake....I am sick to my stomach thinking about it
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:42 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Matthew this morning looks as impressive as ever. Haiti will be rocked. Those people will need help.

That is down right frightening. I fear we will be looking at an epic catastrophic disaster down there with death and destruction when all is said and done. Sad
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:49 am

Beginning to gain confidence on issuing a forecast for our area. Want to see another day of models before doing so.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:58 am

Pathetic trough on the EURO. But, it's consistent and believable.


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:09 am

Wasn't the euro pretty close to getting pulled in last night? A forcast could mean ur gonna say sunny skies lol. U.like to leave us on the edge of our seats lol
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:12 am

Oh yes, EURO definitely improved. I should say it actually gets precipitation into our area. A trough is a trough, and EURO seems to be acknowledging there will at least be one.

06z hurricane models


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Quietace on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Matthew this morning looks as impressive as ever. Haiti will be rocked. Those people will need help.

You can see some weakness in convection in the NW quadrant due to land interaction, but given its only going over the peninsula, the weakening should be minimal and temporary. Probably will be under modeled in terms of intensity in the Bahamas. Once the eye and core is back over water it will explode once again.


Last edited by Quietace on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:15 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:14 am

Landfall


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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