October 2016 Observations & Discussions

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:38 pm

76.6, 66% 29.66F. I will never get used to temps in mid October in the high 70's and low 80's.Just doesn't seem right to have those temps and a lot of trees blazing color like up here.Should be in the high 50's-low 60's now.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:39 pm

80 right now
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:41 pm

It feels like Aug again 80 with partly sunny I am done with this heat bring on the cold already

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:39 pm

frank 638 wrote:It feels like Aug again 80 with partly sunny I am done with this heat bring on the cold already
Patience frank its coming
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:54 pm

Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:02 pm

81° here
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:02 pm

Euro shows a big system headed in at 240 hrs. The possible upcoming noreaster does not look like it's coming together. Though the nhc has the area in Atlantic up to 50%.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:25 pm

Models show it getting on the cooler side after this brief warm up. Lets hope this comes to fruition regardless of what becomes of the potential subtropical storm to noreaster threat next week which unfortunately is looking fairly dry despite the drought and potential close pass of LP centers.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101712&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 18, 2016 5:40 am

00z runs all made a step in the right direction for the phase this weekend. Decent rains now even without full.phase and euro showing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts even as the system depsrts. Man it would b a block buster storm if a full phase happens.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by HectorO on Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:38 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.

I agree, the month has been pretty nice. The warm up is really brief followed by high temps next week even this weekend barely getting into the mid 50's. Although we need the rain, I hope Saturday it holds off. I'm trying to go hiking.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Vinnydula on Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:28 pm

Don't mind a little warm up but 80 in Oct is alittle much
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:19 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Don't mind a little warm up but 80 in Oct is alittle much

As long as its not December 2015 I dont care (shudders)

www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2015/12/18/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Newark&req_state=NJ&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=07101&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

Should be in the 30s within a couple days again, like I said, very brief warm anomalies are not abnormal. Nearly the entire month however, is.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:31 pm

I am loving this October warmth. I went for a nice 8.4-mile bike and a nice 1.4 mile walk this afternoon. Spectacular! Cool

For those of you who are not a fan of the 80s in October I say this: Let's get the unseasonal warmth out of the way now so that we can experience unseasonable cold and snowy December. I would not want a repeat of last December.

Remember, one year ago today, there were flurries across the area with chilly/windy conditions coinciding with Games 1 and 2 of the 2015 NLCS at Citi Field vs the Cubs. The warmth commenced soon after.

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by ak926 on Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:22 am

Teterboro Airport reached 90 degrees yesterday !

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Wed Oct 19, 2016 5:42 am

68 * at 540 in the morning it feels like late July enough already its fall not summer I am ready for the weekend

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:34 am

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 19, 2016 7:03 am

It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Wed Oct 19, 2016 7:24 am

frank 638 wrote:68 * at 540 in the morning it feels like late July enough already its fall not summer I am ready for the weekend

A low of 71* here. Warm night.

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:55 am

jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?

Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:37 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?

Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.

Frank there def looks to be a linkage between the frontal boundary and the subtrop system. Some models have us in the dry slot, but some have it pretty darn close. I could see a scenario, almost an IVT scenario that could end up soaking us if the axis is right.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by HectorO on Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:42 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.

I agree, the month has been pretty nice. The warm up is really brief followed by high temps next week even this weekend barely getting into the mid 50's. Although we need the rain, I hope Saturday it holds off. I'm trying to go hiking.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:58 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?

Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.

Frank there def looks to be a linkage between the frontal boundary and the subtrop system.  Some models have us in the dry slot, but some have it pretty darn close.  I could see a scenario, almost an IVT scenario that could end up soaking us if the axis is right.  

There looks to be a trough entering the PAC NW forcing the ridge to roll east. Remains a pretty progressive pattern with the lack of blocking. I'll still bet against it for now.

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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:58 am

Models are back and forth with the axis.












_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:59 am

You are prob right Frank

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:24 pm

Everything vs the GFS
Models are trending wetter with this system like they did with Matthew.
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