October 2016 Observations & Discussions
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dkodgis
Radz
sroc4
ak926
Vinnydula
algae888
Quietace
HectorO
CPcantmeasuresnow
RJB8525
docstox12
Dtone
jmanley32
NjWeatherGuy
skinsfan1177
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
Snow88
frank 638
amugs
Frank_Wx
Math23x7
26 posters
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Temps overperforming a little. 81* now.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
80° here, mostly cloudy
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
76.6, 66% 29.66F. I will never get used to temps in mid October in the high 70's and low 80's.Just doesn't seem right to have those temps and a lot of trees blazing color like up here.Should be in the high 50's-low 60's now.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
80 right now
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
It feels like Aug again 80 with partly sunny I am done with this heat bring on the cold already
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Patience frank its comingfrank 638 wrote:It feels like Aug again 80 with partly sunny I am done with this heat bring on the cold already
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Euro shows a big system headed in at 240 hrs. The possible upcoming noreaster does not look like it's coming together. Though the nhc has the area in Atlantic up to 50%.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Models show it getting on the cooler side after this brief warm up. Lets hope this comes to fruition regardless of what becomes of the potential subtropical storm to noreaster threat next week which unfortunately is looking fairly dry despite the drought and potential close pass of LP centers.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101712&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101712&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
00z runs all made a step in the right direction for the phase this weekend. Decent rains now even without full.phase and euro showing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts even as the system depsrts. Man it would b a block buster storm if a full phase happens.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.
I agree, the month has been pretty nice. The warm up is really brief followed by high temps next week even this weekend barely getting into the mid 50's. Although we need the rain, I hope Saturday it holds off. I'm trying to go hiking.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Don't mind a little warm up but 80 in Oct is alittle much
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Vinnydula wrote:Don't mind a little warm up but 80 in Oct is alittle much
As long as its not December 2015 I dont care (shudders)
www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2015/12/18/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Newark&req_state=NJ&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=07101&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999
Should be in the 30s within a couple days again, like I said, very brief warm anomalies are not abnormal. Nearly the entire month however, is.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
I am loving this October warmth. I went for a nice 8.4-mile bike and a nice 1.4 mile walk this afternoon. Spectacular!
For those of you who are not a fan of the 80s in October I say this: Let's get the unseasonal warmth out of the way now so that we can experience unseasonable cold and snowy December. I would not want a repeat of last December.
Remember, one year ago today, there were flurries across the area with chilly/windy conditions coinciding with Games 1 and 2 of the 2015 NLCS at Citi Field vs the Cubs. The warmth commenced soon after.
For those of you who are not a fan of the 80s in October I say this: Let's get the unseasonal warmth out of the way now so that we can experience unseasonable cold and snowy December. I would not want a repeat of last December.
Remember, one year ago today, there were flurries across the area with chilly/windy conditions coinciding with Games 1 and 2 of the 2015 NLCS at Citi Field vs the Cubs. The warmth commenced soon after.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Teterboro Airport reached 90 degrees yesterday !
ak926- Posts : 117
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
68 * at 540 in the morning it feels like late July enough already its fall not summer I am ready for the weekend
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Something to look to!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101906&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=0
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101906&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=0
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
frank 638 wrote:68 * at 540 in the morning it feels like late July enough already its fall not summer I am ready for the weekend
A low of 71* here. Warm night.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?
Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?
Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.
Frank there def looks to be a linkage between the frontal boundary and the subtrop system. Some models have us in the dry slot, but some have it pretty darn close. I could see a scenario, almost an IVT scenario that could end up soaking us if the axis is right.
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ehh I cant complain about a relatively short warm spell. So far this month has been on the seasonable and cool side and we all know when the troughs relax they are followed by ridges but in this case it seems more transient then the stubborn pumped SE ridge we had last year. Cool weather will return with and following the potential storm next week with our possible coldest temps of the season.
I agree, the month has been pretty nice. The warm up is really brief followed by high temps next week even this weekend barely getting into the mid 50's. Although we need the rain, I hope Saturday it holds off. I'm trying to go hiking.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:It appears euro wants to give us a good 1 to 4 inches rain this weekend with times of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Frank you do not seem to feel this will transpire per your scroll?
Did the EURO show that last night? The GFS/CMC have no more than an inch of rain. A pretty non-event.
Frank there def looks to be a linkage between the frontal boundary and the subtrop system. Some models have us in the dry slot, but some have it pretty darn close. I could see a scenario, almost an IVT scenario that could end up soaking us if the axis is right.
There looks to be a trough entering the PAC NW forcing the ridge to roll east. Remains a pretty progressive pattern with the lack of blocking. I'll still bet against it for now.
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Models are back and forth with the axis.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
You are prob right Frank
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: October 2016 Observations & Discussions
Everything vs the GFS
Models are trending wetter with this system like they did with Matthew.
Models are trending wetter with this system like they did with Matthew.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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