HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Page 1 of 13 1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:12 am

Last to the Party


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:18 am

amugs wrote:^^ Great Post - Euro coming around to GFS idea - I can't believe on twitter and in forums that folks are saying the euro nailed this - I very much disagree





ANd I have to say I watched Channels 4 and 5 this morning and they both showed tracks up the coast nothing into NC and then gong due east - THAT in itself is....................

GEFS saying come to Pappa



NOW 12Z - OH BOY


Giggity....Mugs what u think in terms of impacks cat 1 maybe 2 impacts? At very least strong TS force?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:22 am; edited 1 time in total
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:21 am

sroc4 wrote:It is going to be interesting to see the Google earth images of western Haitian peninsula before and after. The geography is likely changing as we speak.
Google earth is not updated very often, like for instance my house has an addition, it doesn't even show it and it shows all the leaves off trees. I think they update every few yrs.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:22 am

amugs wrote:HOLY POOPPSSSSS!!!

Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
961mb (Surface) 275° (from the W) 94 knots (108 mph)
958mb 270° (from the W) 96 knots (110 mph)
954mb 280° (from the W) 88 knots (101 mph)
947mb 280° (from the W) 122 knots (140 mph)
944mb 280° (from the W) 130 knots (150 mph)
936mb 295° (from the WNW) 115 knots (132 mph)
933mb 295° (from the WNW) 120 knots (138 mph)
930mb 290° (from the WNW) 131 knots (151 mph)
913mb 300° (from the WNW) 137 knots (158 mph)
907mb 300° (from the WNW) 134 knots (154 mph)
900mb 310° (from the NW) 140 knots (161 mph)
887mb 315° (from the NW) 132 knots (152 mph)
876mb 315° (from the NW) 141 knots (162 mph)
865mb 315° (from the NW) 120 knots (138 mph)
855mb 320° (from the NW) 120 knots (138 mph)
850mb 325° (from the NW) 115 knots (132 mph)
813mb 325° (from the NW) 91 knots (105 mph)
747mb 320° (from the NW) 96 knots (110 mph)
696mb 310° (from the NW) 82 knots (94 mph)

Wait is that storm pressures? 696mb? Or are those the wind levels?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by dkodgis on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:30 am

Just asking...when might rain start hitting us IF we assume it is going to affect us? This Sat or Sun?
avatar
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 368
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by RJB8525 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:It is going to be interesting to see the Google earth images of western Haitian peninsula before and after. The geography is likely changing as we speak.
 Google earth is not updated very often, like for instance my house has an addition, it doesn't even show it and it shows all the leaves off trees.  I think they update every few yrs.

lol my house still shows a car i had 3 years ago.
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1655
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 31
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:34 am

RJB8525 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:It is going to be interesting to see the Google earth images of western Haitian peninsula before and after. The geography is likely changing as we speak.
 Google earth is not updated very often, like for instance my house has an addition, it doesn't even show it and it shows all the leaves off trees.  I think they update every few yrs.

lol my house still shows a car i had 3 years ago.

actually at the bottom of the page it says when it was last updated.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:35 am

^^^^ JMAN 876MB - Jesus 696 woudl decimate the whole caribbean through the carolinas

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:36 am

Larry Cosgrove


It now appears that most of the Eastern Seaboard of the USA will be affected by Major Hurricane Matthew. now battering Haiti. Matthew will exit the Windward Passage tomorrow and bend to the northwest. Over very warm waters in and about the Bahamas, the powerful storm may again attain Category 5 status. The track scenario shows a close scrape 100 miles east of the FL Atlantic Coast, then a turn inland over the Carolinas (Category 4 strength) before rolling along and to the left of the coastline with abundant wind and rain. It is entirely possible that many communities from eastern Virginia into New York and New England could see a period of damaging winds as the system starts to transition to cold-core type of character.
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1831
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 29
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:38 am

No wind shear as per Levi - once he get over the mountains on Haiti there he will re strengthen and same for the Bahamas


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:39 am

sroc4 wrote:Larry Cosgrove is pretty convinced of the CMC/GFS/UKMET track up the coast with significant impacts likely.  I have def seen him wrong before, but he has been consistent with this idea for several days now.  JB on the other hand buying the east soln of the euro. with minimal impacts.  

LC:
It now appears that most of the Eastern Seaboard of the USA will be affected by Major Hurricane Matthew. now battering Haiti. Matthew will exit the Windward Passage tomorrow and bend to the northwest. Over very warm waters in and about the Bahamas, the powerful storm may again attain Category 5 status. The track scenario shows a close scrape 100 miles east of the FL Atlantic Coast, then a turn inland over the Carolinas (Category 4 strength) before rolling along and to the left of the coastline with abundant wind and rain. It is entirely possible that many communities from eastern Virginia into New York and New England could see a period of damaging winds as the system starts to transition to cold-core type of character.
Much colder air will follow early next week across the Midwest and Northeast.
 

Anthont Touche !!!!!!!!!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:43 am

From Ed Vallee on twitter - I know its late timewise but look ta the EC run here


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8455
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by obsessedwithweather on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:46 am

This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

obsessedwithweather

Posts : 13
Join date : 2016-09-16

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:59 am

amugs wrote:^^^^ JMAN 876MB - Jesus 696 woudl decimate the whole caribbean through the carolinas

look at bottom one, must be a typo.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:02 am

obsessedwithweather wrote:This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

Yes this often happens.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:06 am

Hazel is still the top analog for this storm

avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1831
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 29
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:08 am

obsessedwithweather wrote:This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

Once he gains latitude past cape H and or makes a landfall it will begin to undergo a transformation from warm core to cold core. As a purely tropical system the strongest winds are wound right towards the core;however, once it makes landfall and or undergoes the transformation the winds begin to spread out away from the center. It's def possible by the time it makes it up to us the heaviest winds are 100miles from the center. Exact track will play a large role in definitively answering the question

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4785
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by obsessedwithweather on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:10 am

sroc4 wrote:
obsessedwithweather wrote:This may seem like a silly question, but here goes.

As Matthew comes up the coast, will he grow in size? He seems fairly small (to my untrained eye) and I was wondering if he will grow and his winds will be felt further from the center?

Once he gains latitude past cape H and or makes a landfall it will begin to undergo a transformation from warm core to cold core. As a purely tropical system the strongest winds are wound right towards the core;however, once it makes landfall and or undergoes the transformation the winds begin to spread out away from the center. It's def possible by the time it makes it up to us the heaviest winds are 100miles from the center. Exact track will play a large role in definitively answering the question

Thank you for explaining! Smile

obsessedwithweather

Posts : 13
Join date : 2016-09-16

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:10 am

Snow88 wrote:Hazel is still the top analog for this storm

Hazel was BAD up this way. Looks like we may be sounding the horn in the next day or two if these trends continue, I am better 12z Euro comes a bit more west.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:11 am

My wife keeps asking me what day are we thinking, will this likely not go past Monday? It would be great to be able to be home since I am off on Monday and Tuesday.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by rb924119 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:27 am

Looking at the 12z hurricane model suite, I don't know how bad the impacts would actually be with the western tracks, other than rain and gusty winds. Here's why: if those tracks were to verify, especially something like the UKMET where it is really over land, that would really work to spin down the storm. In other words, weaken it. Something else to consider, is with a track like that, that is implying that it becomes embedded in the southwesterly flow of the trough as it moves east. Ok, fine. However, the trough is not nearly deep enough to fully capture the system and phase the two, so in my mind (take that for what little it's worth, as I swear I can hear the last few remaining screws rattling around in there from time to time lol) the system would really start shearing out and becoming disorganized. Therefore, it would look good in Virginia, for example, but by the time it would get up here would basically be a shield of rain with winds on the front side ahead of the front. Then, once the front swings through that would be it. I don't know, but there is still another day or so of runs before I accept any one solution. There's still way too much inconsistency for me to take anything to be a definitive trend or track.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3601
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 25
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by rb924119 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:43 am

FWIW 12z NAM has shifted further east with this thing compared to 00z lmfao it was landfalling in Florida like the UK, now it's a good 100 miles offshore ahaha God that model.......although I guess it's about as good as any have been this last week lmfao

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3601
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 25
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:14 am

New NHC cone 11am, oh boy...still a hurricane and progged be in the area sunday morning. And we have TS Nicole to watch too, don't think anything will come of her.

11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 4
Location: 18.9°N 74.3°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph





avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:17 am

Hurricane and Trop Storm watches hoisted in FL
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1998
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 am

90 MPH hurricane at the point off our coast, that's nothing to mess with.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13089
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 13 1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum