HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:35 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Are you kidding me?  


lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!:lol!


We are back to 7-10 days away for possible impacts to our area.  This is not a joke.

Yep, saw some GEFS members split and come northward NEXT week if timing is right..... Going nuts here......
I'm still asleep right? Good god this is nuts another week this storm is go break time and ace records if true. But talk about trucks up his sleeves! Silver lining. We may still have a shot at get a hurricane in 10 days or so but the same one lol good grief!
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:43 am

This thread is going to b 5000 pages long.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:45 am

I really don't buy us being affected
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:58 am

Who knows if it sticks around another 10 days could b another trough.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:04 am

jmanley32 wrote:This thread is going to b 5000 pages long.

They automatically get split after 40 pages haha.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This thread is going to b 5000 pages long.

They automatically get split after 40 pages haha.
well still I bet you have some things to say about the model runs last night dear lord for fl if true.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:09 am

So here is the science behind the modeling.  Ill try to make it brief.  I'm going to show Euro 500mb with labels, but I will also show the GFS without labels because currently they are actually in agreement.

By this time Thursday morning You can you that there is energy digging into the west coast.  But notice by hr 48 the WAR builds in strong, and pay particular attention to the ULL coming ashore in the BAHA Cali.  It is actually enhancing a ridge development over the Tx region which combined with the exceptionally strong WAR, and a progressive Pacific pattern act to deflect the trough north over top the WAR effectively flattening it out as it  propagates east.      







GFS showing similar evolution.  






 
Keep in mind the reason this is allowed to happen is that the pattern behind the west coast, out in the PAC, is not very amplified as currently modeled.  If it were more amplified, it may have led to a stronger trough development.  Strong enough to prevent the WAR from flaring up so strongly which would lead to a sharper trough further east like the GFS showed on prev. runs.  A WAR that doesn't push so far west means a turn to the N faster for Matthew.  Once we turn N it would be much easier for the approaching trough to either send it OTS or draw it up the coast depending on how positive, neutral or negative the trough is.  However, as currently modeled the trough is so flat, and deflected so far N and Matthew is so slow to turn N (again because of the steering flow of the WAR) it actually misses the connection with the trough and gets trapped and makes another loop if you will.  

Now I need to be very clear here.  Both GFS and Euro agree on this scenario now, but I would use caution to think that it is etched in stone just yet, esp beyond 3-5days.  As we have now seen yet once again Modeling of the pattern and what it wants to do with Mugsy's son conts to throw us nothing but curveballs and change ups.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:09 am

I think the loop is possible but remain pretty confident he'll stay out to sea. Even by Day 10.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote: I think the loop is possible but remain pretty confident he'll stay out to sea. Even by Day 10.

Yeah it looks too flat even later on in time, slim chance it finds a break like some ens members show but like we all know who really knows whats gonna happen if the timeline keeps changing like this with guidance swinging run to run. Wish it would just swing out to sea and let the boot hit it on its way out and get it over with already...
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:23 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote: I think the loop is possible but remain pretty confident he'll stay out to sea. Even by Day 10.

Yeah it looks too flat even later on in time, slim chance it finds a break like some ens members show but like we all know who really knows whats gonna happen if the timeline keeps changing like this with guidance swinging run to run. Wish it would just swing out to sea and let the boot hit it on its way out and get it over with already...


Couldn't have said it better

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by rb924119 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:49 am

Can't do a full analysis now, but based on what I am seeing with the longer term guidance, I am actually somewhat concerned with a credible threat of capture for somewhere closer to home. Just looked on mobile so I can't get a full opinion, but on first glance.....

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:01 am

rb924119 wrote:Can't do a full analysis now, but based on what I am seeing with the longer term guidance, I am actually somewhat concerned with a credible threat of capture for somewhere closer to home. Just looked on mobile so I can't get a full opinion, but on first glance.....

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. I kind of agree with Frank though until "someone" convinces me otherwise.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:20 am

Very busy at work and Ice Hockey for my sons. Speaking of here is the animation - I am truly in disbelief as to what the models are showing - amazing. talk about a complex set up - My son is not to blame for his actions but the WAR and PAC Laughing  cheers  - I had a pretty firm feeling up until yesterday evening that he would come north due to the EPO block and trough that was being modelled - EURO loves to hold back the energy so why I was siding with the GFS and its absolutely horrid swings (Euro - GOM West Fla panhandle area to 2 runs later hitting Jamaica). Tropical systems play with us ALL the time and it is what it is. Hopefully the models wont be as bad come Dec-March - if so I may have to revert back to my old weather station - my weather rock - when it is wet it is raining etc!

Florida will be turned to a pile of straw in this run, looks like we are dodging another bullet up here.


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:38 am

Just nuts they are going through enough down in FL right now to have to this about a 7 day forcast of the same hurricane. Rb please give us your insight as soon as you can, you seem to be the only one who thinks it could pose a threat later next week, but I am taking it with a grain of salt and not losing sleep till within 3 days or so. This has been a immense waste of time, though keeping my FL family will keep me on this at least once or twice a day to update them.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:41 am

rb924119 wrote:Can't do a full analysis now, but based on what I am seeing with the longer term guidance, I am actually somewhat concerned with a credible threat of capture for somewhere closer to home. Just looked on mobile so I can't get a full opinion, but on first glance.....

I am assuming you mean the second time around, gee how often do we say that with the same hurricane. I bet you not very often.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:04 am

jmanley32 wrote:This thread is going to b 5000 pages long.

.....and you will be up to 50,000 posts Razz Razz

maybe if it loops around for long enough it will be pulled up as a major blizzard for Christmas. Laughing Laughing
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:06 am

Also didn't the EURO show this stall/loop scenario last week and we all laughed it off. I guess the king is back and we know what model to follow for our winter threats. Pathetic American models waste of taxpayer money. Embarrassing
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:21 am

We might be tracking this storm for another week lol
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by billg315 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:25 am

Are these models a practical joke? It looks like either the storm is drunk or the person who input the data is drunk.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by billg315 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:27 am

It looks like when you're streaming something online and it accidentally re-loops.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:53 am

syosnow94 wrote:Also didn't the EURO show this stall/loop scenario last week and we all laughed it off.  I guess the king is back and we know what model to follow for our winter threats. Pathetic American models waste of taxpayer money.  Embarrassing

affraid affraid affraid affraid wow i forgot about that
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:46 am

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This thread is going to b 5000 pages long.

.....and you will be up to 50,000 posts Razz Razz

maybe if it loops around for long enough it will be pulled up as a major blizzard for Christmas. Laughing Laughing

LOL, trying to consolidate my posts instead of posting thought after thought, but yes I am the king of posting, one below Frank. I for one and not going to be tracking this intensly for another week, I will check in to see changes but I just cannot divert so much attention to this, especially now, maybe come Monday if models (EURO!) are showing a system coming this way then I will start again.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:10 pm

12z GFS landfalls Hurricane Matthew into mid-FL Atlantic coast near Cape Canaveral.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Snow88 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:23 pm

Navgem comes up the coast but just offshore after looping the storm
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:46 pm

Snow88 wrote:Navgem comes up the coast but just offshore after looping the storm
rb made mention that he had a concern with a possible impact second try around, though I like all the insight here he seems to be the only one who thinks it might or could be a threat.  It would be quite something to have a hurricane around for nearly a month. Go be quite quiet here I think until that loop happens and if he is still a hurricane and moving NW again dejavu for tracking next week lol
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