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Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:40 pm

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 6 57f6fcde69871_SAT_ERG4_WVENH_ANI(3).gif.52eb601cca28d3e151647f3c2f334dba

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Post by devsman Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:55 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I just spoke with my relatives in Orlando.  They said that this afternoon they tried to get something to eat.  The mall: closed.  The supermarket: closed.  The only place open was a Chinese restaurant where they had to wait 30 minutes just to get a seat, but it was the only option they knew of. There were no flights they could get to that would have gotten them out in time so they have to ride it out in the hotel.   They have told me that they have rearranged flight plans to fly out of Orlando on Saturday morning to go to Charolette, NC before flying from there to NYC.  I told them two major issues with that.  1) Charolette may be in the rain bands of Matthew before it loops around.  2) Potential destruction in Orlando could wreak further havoc on the flight schedule.  But they told me that its the best they could do.  This is a couple in their 40s and three kids ages 15, 13, and 8.

When they first told me last August that they were going to Florida in early October, I immediately thought, "What if a hurricane strikes?"  But I couldn't say anything because they would have yelled at me calling me a pessimist.  (Actually, whenever I hear about vacation plans for anybody, I often bring up potential weather threats that could crash it and they are fed up with it so they have told me to keep my mouth shut)
?

Told my mother-in-law about this storm 2 weeks ago. She went to orlando on monday. She called my wife on tuesday and said...why didn;t he tell us about this storm...He always talks about the weather. Her memory is not so good.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:39 pm

Unbelievable freakish image

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 6 234r325345345
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Post by Snow88 Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:43 am

CMC and GFS shifted a little north and brings heavy rain to Hatteras

Hurricane models also shifted north and have less of a loop
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Post by Snow88 Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:49 am

0z Ukie is slightly more north for the mid atlantic people. Matthew gets to Hatteras. Never did on the 12z run

0z

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060

12z

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072
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Post by Snow88 Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:29 am

0z JMA has a lot of rain further north on this run compared to last run

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif
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Post by Snow88 Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:08 am

Euro is further north with Matthew into Hatteras. A lot of rain for Hatteras compared to 12z.
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Post by WeatherBob Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:39 am

Looks like the devastating winds will stay offshore in Florida. They are looking like they will dodge a bullet.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:29 am

While the eye is offshore, Hurricane force winds extend to the coast. Eye is very close.

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 6 RAD_KMLB_N0R_ANI.gif.dd87e00a8f0513c612982661807216ec

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Post by Guest Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:36 am

Looks like Florida is going to dodge a MAJOR BULLET. The northern and eastern eyewall looks super strong but should remain offshore it's entire way up the coast. The west side not nearly as bad. Tons of rain and gusts to maybe 100 at times is bad enough, but it could have been SO MUCH WORSE.

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Post by RJB8525 Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:38 am

syosnow94 wrote:Looks like Florida is going to dodge a MAJOR BULLET.  The northern and eastern eyewall looks super strong but should remain offshore it's entire way up the coast.  The west side not nearly as bad.  Tons of rain and gusts to maybe 100 at times is bad enough, but it could have been SO MUCH WORSE.  

Yes, hopefully Jacksonville can dodge and get spared from storm surge watching TWC they haven't had any sort of hurricane damage since the 70's
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Post by Snow88 Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:44 am

Cape hatteras might get it much worse than Florida ( Rain wise )
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:02 am

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:18 am

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:39 am

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:43 am

Have not been in touch can someone tell me how it will be around beaufort NC...thanks
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:47 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Have not been in touch can someone tell me how it will be around beaufort NC...thanks

They could get 10+" of rain. Destructive flooding with winds possibly between 60-80mph. All day Saturday into early Sunday.

Not good.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:49 am

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:08 am

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:28 am

Jacksonville getting smoked and Ga adn Sc will later too - the coastal flooding will be worse in the areas as he moves parallel to the coast just piling up water with 100mph plus winds.

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Post by amugs Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:38 am

Speedway or Speed boat way?!!

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 6 CuLN_1_WYAATAsp

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Post by Snow88 Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:38 pm

We need the rain up here
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Post by Snow88 Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:51 pm

Ukie has the storm right near Hatteras

[url="http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=042&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048"]http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....test&hh=048[/url]

Then goes ENE from there and slams into Nova Scotia, north of Maine
[url="http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144"]http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....test&hh=144[/url]
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:52 pm

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:55 pm

amugs wrote:Speedway or Speed boat way?!!

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 6 CuLN_1_WYAATAsp


That is not a flat surface either, that is a steep incline up from the infield grass, and is all from rainfall, they are not close enough to the beach for surge.

Hurricane Matthew Southeast Coast Discussion Thread - Page 6 Dayton10


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:04 pm

Hearing from FL family one didn't lose power, Daytona did, vero beach did but winds were not nearly as bad as was thought.
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:27 pm

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947mb

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