Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

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Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by rb924119 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:52 pm

Upon request, I started this separate thread.

I posted this morning about how I might be concerned with Matthew if it's still dancing around off the Southeast coast early next week. Instead of doing a write-up, I tried a video. Let me know what you all think about it, and feel free to ask questions!!! Hopefully you enjoy it, it answers all of the questions, isn't too boring, and isn't too long!! haha

P.S.: Thanks for all of your feedback so far!!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYWjhpQmhTSTFkNDA

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Re: Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:01 pm

Very cool, yes I am a very visual person in text I cannot understand a darn thing. so videos yes. Annd your saying theres a chance lol. I do have one question. Do you see Matthew having any steam left meandering around in a not so great spot for maintaining intensity or strengthening next week? Euro today showed him pretty much dying out completely (that may have been the GFS or both, I forgoet). Or if he did get picked up would he become hybrid and try to strengthen, of course these are big IFS and as you said pattern is 8 days away. This has been one whirlwind of a hurricane to track, any idea of how much Matthew increased the Atlantic ACE so far?
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Re: Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by HectorO on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:02 pm

Nice video. I've been worried for my family them taking a direct hit, the storm looping around and hitting again.
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Re: Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by rb924119 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:07 pm

Thanks, Jman!! There is a chance, but darnit I forgot to mention the intensity aspect Brick The East Coast threat only becomes significant if Matthew is able to maintain hurricane status. Strong tropical storm at minimum. If it can't, once drawn northward, especially at a slower speed, it would pretty much fall apart. Now, if it ended up in the Carolinas again, then they would still have to worry. But us up here, if a tropical storm or weaker; I think minimal impacts at best. As for whether it would be a hybrid or tropical entity, that depends on the exact situation and setup, so I can't answer that haha Lastly, I believe it's over 80 now. I think it was somewhere near 77 yesterday. Don't quote me on that, though lmao

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Re: Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by rb924119 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:11 pm

HectorO wrote:Nice video. I've been worried for my family them taking a direct hit, the storm looping around and hitting again.

Thanks, Hector!! Yeah, it's always scary when storms like this start dancing and circling, slowing down, stalling, etc. Again, I'm not discounting a direct landfall in central Florida, but even if it does I think it's just barely and then it follows the coast. So, even with that, the worst impacts would be confined to maybe 30-40 miles inland at most. Like Frank said, it's a tiny storm regarding the worst of it, which is a good thing.

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Re: Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by HectorO on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:19 pm

rb924119 wrote:
HectorO wrote:Nice video. I've been worried for my family them taking a direct hit, the storm looping around and hitting again.

Thanks, Hector!! Yeah, it's always scary when storms like this start dancing and circling, slowing down, stalling, etc. Again, I'm not discounting a direct landfall in central Florida, but even if it does I think it's just barely and then it follows the coast. So, even with that, the worst impacts would be confined to maybe 30-40 miles inland at most. Like Frank said, it's a tiny storm regarding the worst of it, which is a good thing.

My family is in Jacksonville too. Just hope to wake up to a different story tomorrow. Wishful thinking.
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Re: Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:55 pm

The pattern looks flat to me with oppressive high pressure over the northern tier which should keep Matt to the south. On mobile now and busy at work so no time to view video atm but imo if he does the loop and ends up near the same spot next week theres about a 80% chance he gets pushed OTS into the Atl., maybe 10% he retrogrades and dissipates somewhere into the gulf, and maybe another 10% he finds a gap in the ridge to ride up the coast like a few ensemble members show. Not a big enough risk for me to lose any more sleep over at this point, this storm has got me sick and tired of it and wish it would make up its mind on what its doing already.
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Re: Matthew's Second Run - East Coast Threat?

Post by rb924119 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:12 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:The pattern looks flat to me with oppressive high pressure over the northern tier which should keep Matt to the south. On mobile now and busy at work so no time to view video atm but imo if he does the loop and ends up near the same spot next week theres about a 80% chance he gets pushed OTS into the Atl., maybe 10% he retrogrades and dissipates somewhere into the gulf, and maybe another 10% he finds a gap in the ridge to ride up the coast like a few ensemble members show. Not a big enough risk for me to lose any more sleep over at this point, this storm has got me sick and tired of it and wish it would make up its mind on what its doing already.

Haha oh I wouldn't worry about it either. It's something that might be fun to keep an eye on and see what actually happens. But I agree, a 3-week long storm will probably have all of us begging for a quiet stretch lmao

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