Long Range Thread 12.0

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2016-2017 Winter Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Aug 16, 2016 8:12 pm

Both the new and old Farmers Almanacs released their winter forecasts this week. The top image is the new Farmers Alamanac, the bottom is the old. Both are predicting a snowy winter but one says cold and the other says mild. 



We'll use this thread to discuss anything winter related. 

Yes, it's that time already. I have not decided on a release date for my winter outlook yet.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Aug 16, 2016 8:33 pm

I've just about had enough of all this heat and humidity. already looking forward to winter and all the model watching. Here's hoping all the weather anomalies line up and we get a 1996 redux. With the increasing likelihood of a weak La Nina, that's a good start.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:28 pm

If he Jamstec can deliver these SST goods then I think we can be in good shape for this upcoming winter.




Come on us weeneis are always looking towards this season only 127 days to go!
https://days.to/until/winter



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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:46 pm

JAMSTEC u bring these goods I'll kiss a bear!!


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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:48 pm

Weak to Neutral with a Pos PDO or Blob in the NW come on now



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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:48 pm

amugs wrote:If he Jamstec can deliver these SST goods then I think we can be in good shape for this upcoming winter.




Come on us weeneis are always looking towards this season only 127 days to go!
https://days.to/until/winter



Wow, really love the +PDO signal which should help maintain a ridge over the EPO region and drive the cold air into the eastern CONUS. The polar jet will be more active this year than the southern jet, so expect decent Miller Bs and clippers especially if we have a -NAO.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:50 pm

Love this look here -epo, +pna

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:51 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:I've just about had enough of all this heat and humidity. already looking forward to winter and all the model watching. Here's hoping all the weather anomalies line up and we get a 1996 redux. With the increasing likelihood of a weak La Nina, that's a good start.

Yes, the humidity has been relentless. I too am ready to close the book on summer. It's been a fun one for me. By the time September comes I'll definitely be ready to track winter storms again. I need to blow the dust off my blog. Time to bring back the Mo Mos

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:53 pm

Franky,

You MUST have read my post in the long range that I moved over here to about the Jamstec. Love the possibility  here.

Woop woop

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:56 pm

Can you tell I have been waiting for thus season??
Laden with precip here for Dec

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by snow247 on Tue Aug 16, 2016 10:56 pm

Finally the time has come. I've had enough of this heat and humidity. I'm ready to begin looking forward to what this winter may have in store for us. Only a few months away Smile
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Fri Aug 19, 2016 2:11 pm



2013-14 blob, and look at the cold over both pole regions

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:20 pm

Weak nina incoming, anyway it may be reading this but we still have a lag from the e xceptionally strong Nino. The atmosphere takes time, months for it to come out of this state as I have researched.

The next couple of.months will be telling for us, wull it be protracted weak nino or a buidling nina state? Oceans may say one thing and the atmosphere another.

Read this write up interesting.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by algae888 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 3:07 pm

with record breaking sst in the western atlantic it looks like the s/e ridge could be dominate this fall as many have stated. if sst do not cool we will probably be looking at another delay to winter (warm dec.) as ridge stays near our area. imo we need a strong system either a noreaster or tropical system (maybe more than one) to churn up some cooler waters and bring sst closer to normal. I was hoping for a quick start to winter this year with the forecast of a nina but this is looking gloomy atm. we haven't had a good December (snow and cold) for many years.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:18 pm

I am optimistic that we have a Nino-hangover during a weak Nina or negative neutral.

From a met - Not the hugest sample, but it seems those types of years produced well, and did so early on. ('05, '95, '83, '66).



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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:16 am

This is what the Old Farmer's Almanac says for the 12-month period from November 2016 to October 2017.  



Look at December 2016, at least 6-degree above normal temperatures.  As ugly as that seems, I actually agree with it.   The meteorological winter does not look to get to a cold start.  As I stated in the banter thread, the NAO has been negative for the last few months.  It would seem that it would be due to go positive by December.  The last cold December we had was in 2010, which featured the epic Boxing Day Blizzard and that had a -NAO.  Think about this: In the last five Decembers, only once has the temperature in Central Park gone below 20 degrees and that was in 2013 on Christmas morning (three days after it had a high/low of 71/61).

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by rb924119 on Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:46 pm

I love how you guys are the only crew that I know that are already excited for winter ahahaha AND I LOVE IT!!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:00 pm

rb924119 wrote:I love how you guys are the only crew that I know that are already excited for winter ahahaha AND I LOVE IT!!!!
WHO ME??? Wink
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by SNOW MAN on Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:I love how you guys are the only crew that I know that are already excited for winter ahahaha AND I LOVE IT!!!!

You mean there are other seasons besides Winter. Interesting.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by rb924119 on Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:10 pm

LMAO!! Hope everybody's been well in this terribly dismal season lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:25 pm

Not-so typical La Nina this winter 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/24/a-way-too-early-look-at-next-winters-weather/

+PDO and low solar activity will play pivotal roles

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:37 pm

Decided to check out SSTs in the Atlantic, but couldn't help but notice the abnormal warmth in the north Pacific. It looks like the "blob" is back. If this feature is here after Christmas, we'll be on our way to see a below average temperature season. 


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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by HectorO on Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:LMAO!! Hope everybody's been well in this terribly dismal season lol

LOL, you guys up here are nuts. We had like a 2 week heat wave and everyone is throwing in the Summer like it was one of the worst summers of the ages. June felt beautiful, with maybe a few hotter than normal days which is fine because after all, it is summer. July felt also great. Towards the middle of the month there were a few really hot days then it went back to seasonalish... Then towards the end of the month into August we got blasted. This week has been beautiful so far. A few hot days will come again then next week back to nice weather. Down in the south from like April- October feels like it did in the beginning of the month. At least up here we get breaks of nice days during the summer.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Decided to check out SSTs in the Atlantic, but couldn't help but notice the abnormal warmth in the north Pacific. It looks like the "blob" is back. If this feature is here after Christmas, we'll be on our way to see a below average temperature season. 


Frank - I love that Blob Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy !!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Thu Aug 25, 2016 12:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Decided to check out SSTs in the Atlantic, but couldn't help but notice the abnormal warmth in the north Pacific. It looks like the "blob" is back. If this feature is here after Christmas, we'll be on our way to see a below average temperature season. 


Amazing how quick it flips, remember seeing that eastern pacific water dark red/beige colored on that map seemingly not too long ago.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

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