Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[Frank_Wx]

[Frank_Wx]

I guess we could see PV displacement end of this month then a split in early December. 

[Frank_Wx]

The EPS and CFS are in agreement a west-based block will develop in December. It's too damn bad the Pacific does not look better. It'll be an interesting pattern to follow. SE ridge is likely to stay muted but lack of amplification could mean weak storm systems. 

[billg315]

Interesting article:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/weakening_shifting_polar_vortex_study_longer_harsher_winters_north_america/61622468

[amugs]

This is a set up for a snowy pattern.

[Frank_Wx]

The new ECM Weeklies are impressive for December. They show positive heights over Canada. The most amplified heights is over the NAO region. Looks like a west-based block. There are also positive heights in the EPO domain by week 2 of December. Meanwhile, the CONUS is under below normal temps with an active Pacific Jet. I mean, it's a very progressive flow. This would not be a pattern that brings about Godzilla's, but could be some quick hitters.

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO shows a SSWE taking place after Thanksgiving. The main PV lobe is displaced to Russia with low heights beginning to extend into parts of North America. The GFS, in fact, shows 2 PV lobes in the Northern Hemisphere. One over Scandinavia and another near Alaska / Canada. This would yield a much better pattern than what we've seen. Most of December should be a good month. It's what I felt in my winter outlook and I stand by it for now. The rest of the winter will be a challenge.

[amugs]

This would be sweet and perfect timing for Xmas
Euro weekly at week 4, if it comes to fruition

[Frank_Wx]

Yup, they looks very nice. Loving those low heights near the Aleutians.

[amugs]

The Euro Para takes over on Tues 22nd so let's use it and........ Looks see for Mon Nov 28th

[Frank_Wx]

Thanksgiving still looks to be on the unsettled side. Clouds with intermittent rain showers. Cool too, only in the 40s under the cloudy skies. Next week for the most part looks to be below normal once the front passes through on Saturday night.

Weather between now and December looks to be pretty uneventful. Another possible storm system I'm watching around the 28th. That one could bring wintry weather to our area, but I'm not confident in that yet.

Ensembles still show a better pattern evolving in December. It doesn't exactly excite me, but it should keep us average to below average with threats for winter storms. We'll see!

[amugs]

Thanksgiving still looks to be on the unsettled side. Clouds with intermittent rain showers. Cool too, only in the 40s under the cloudy skies. Next week for the most part looks to be below normal once the front passes through on Saturday night.

Weather between now and December looks to be pretty uneventful. Another possible storm system I'm watching around the 28th. That one could bring wintry weather to our area, but I'm not confident in that yet.

Ensembles still show a better pattern evolving in December. It doesn't exactly excite me, but it should keep us average to below average with threats for winter storms. We'll see!

Frank - the evolution is what is important at this point, the EURO PARA is sure exciting in week 3 and 4 but we all know that is a long way off. The heights progged to rise in the EPO region and horseshoe across the top from AL and GN is exciting - same type of set up we had in 93-94 and we had storm after storm undercut this horseshoe for a great winter. Also PAC is progged to calm down with the block and Siberian cold to slowly subside and the NPAC jet will become more weak Nino with a STJ



to this - I like this look a hell of alot better than the above



The process is taking shape and we have good things in the works at the 500mb level. No hecs but it is December and I have a feeling around Dec 5-10th timeframe we see our first accumulating snowfall for the NYC Metro area.

[Frank_Wx]

The sea surface temp anomalies are still showing a classic +PDO signal. We have to make sure that large cold pool does not try to sneak anymore east.



The GEFS are still showing a better pattern to open December. The active PAC jet roaring below blocking heights to the north could make things interesting.

[Frank_Wx]

The Canadian is very close to giving our area its first snowstorm of the season next weekend. All major models show some "form" of coastal storm between the 26th and 28th time period. It looks like we finally have something to track! Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows today.

[jrollins628]

Any update with next weeks storm? I'm afraid to ask because its either rain or a miss or a cutter? If this one doesn't work is there anything else soon?

[Frank_Wx]

Any update with next weeks storm? I'm afraid to ask because its either rain or a miss or a cutter? If this one doesn't work is there anything else soon?

The 27th is still pretty far out. Models will continue waffling. Thanksgiving will be rain. Unfortunately...

[jrollins628]

Okay thanks

[Isotherm]

I'm now beginning to wonder whether we'll even officially achieve a zonal wind reversal at 10hpa/65N. The ECMWF gets us close at D 4-6, then strengthens the vortex, and now for two consecutive days, the GFS depicts the reversal but w/ rapid intensification thereafter. As expressed yesterday and throughout this season, there are factors destructively interfering with weak vortex maintenance, and other concerns regarding strat progression which favor Europe/Asia. We will be -NAM/-NAO over the next couple weeks but it probably won't translate into anything for the coast, in light of the Pacific and relatively ineffective orientation. The question becomes - what happens as December continues with respect to the blocking? If the zonal wind reversal fails, and vortex intensification is rapid, the blocking episode may not be as protracted as we think. A lot to consider, and certainly far from ready to be too optimistic at least from my perspective.

[amugs]

^^^^^ oh boy not a good sign !!

[Frank_Wx]

I'm now beginning to wonder whether we'll even officially achieve a zonal wind reversal at 10hpa/65N. The ECMWF gets us close at D 4-6, then strengthens the vortex, and now for two consecutive days, the GFS depicts the reversal but w/ rapid intensification thereafter. As expressed yesterday and throughout this season, there are factors destructively interfering with weak vortex maintenance, and other concerns regarding strat progression which favor Europe/Asia. We will be -NAM/-NAO over the next couple weeks but it probably won't translate into anything for the coast, in light of the Pacific and relatively ineffective orientation. The question becomes - what happens as December continues with respect to the blocking? If the zonal wind reversal fails, and vortex intensification is rapid, the blocking episode may not be as protracted as we think. A lot to consider, and certainly far from ready to be too optimistic at least from my perspective.

Tom, not sure if you agree, but to me this looks like a wave 1 warming event where Canadian Warming is going to push the lower and middle Strat Vortex into Siberia. Models did not really show a PV split at any time, leading me to believe the rapid res-strengthening of the Strat PV is inevitable. It's unfortunate because I originally though the wave 1 warming would lead to wave 2 (a full SSWE) but that no longer seems to be the case which means December may not be as thrilling as originally thought...



I guess the good news is the Strat PV will remain weaker than normal and we will have other opportunities for SSWE later in the season.

[Frank_Wx]

Man this really does suck.
 
Instead of seeing mean zonal wind reversal in the Stratosphere which would weaken the PV and lead to a possible SSWE, we'll see a short-lived weak Strat PV displaced into Siberia but looks like it will rapid re-strengthen by early December. We'll have to wait longer - likely end of DEC or early JAN - until a full SSWE occurs.
 

[Frank_Wx]

EURO Saturday morning

[amugs]

EPO progged to go N - good sign - need for it to come fruition

[amugs]

JB new euro run - impressive!


I'll take this for $500 please Alex - give to me in Jan and Feb for a daily double!!

[amugs]

I asked a met who works for NOAA up on Alaska about the bath tub slosh theory - anyone else here who is a met ever here of this? He was taught it by an old school prof up at Lyndon State and says that it is "old school" and that they dont use it anymore but he feels it has some merit from what he remembers 20 plus years ago.
What happens in Asia has a synoptic effect down teh road by a month to month and a half on the other side of the globe - are we seeing the effects of such and if so then wow for what might be to come.
MJO doing a loop from 1 through 2 back to 1 arguing for a colder Dec. on Euro. GFS takes it into and 2 then the COD

[Isotherm]

I would agree, Frank. The tropospheric precursor pattern was very much oriented to constructive interfere with climatological wave-1, and we see the resultant spike in wave-1 forecasted next week. Wave-2 amplitudes are down near record lows, much like last year. Wave-1 is generally less effective as you know.


I'm not sure that the strat PV will remain weaker than normal - I think it will probably be stronger than normal as winter continues with a decreasing probability of a SSW, until late February. So to miss the opportunity now is very bad in my opinion.

[amugs]

White turkey day for N&W - said we'd have a white turkey day - somewhere ahahaha!!

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