December 2016 Observations & Discussions
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December 2016 Observations & Discussions
And so begins the month we can't stop talking about: December!
This is how the December 2015 thread began: With an ironic post from Janet.
Last December ended 13.3 degrees above average: 50.8, beating the old record of 44.1 in December 2001. 29 out of 31 days were at least 5 degrees above average. And the other two were a couple of degrees above average. The entire month came and went without a freezing temperature in NYC.
A month ago, Frank pledged this:
I don't think we'll see a big cold shot outside of something transient mid-month.
I posted this a few weeks ago and it is slightly modified based on error corrections. You can visit the thread for details but these are some NYC December statistics since 1950.
May the odds be ever on our favor for some old-fashioned cold in time for Christmas!
This is how the December 2015 thread began: With an ironic post from Janet.
Last December ended 13.3 degrees above average: 50.8, beating the old record of 44.1 in December 2001. 29 out of 31 days were at least 5 degrees above average. And the other two were a couple of degrees above average. The entire month came and went without a freezing temperature in NYC.
A month ago, Frank pledged this:
I don't think we'll see a big cold shot outside of something transient mid-month.
I posted this a few weeks ago and it is slightly modified based on error corrections. You can visit the thread for details but these are some NYC December statistics since 1950.
May the odds be ever on our favor for some old-fashioned cold in time for Christmas!
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
If we are all outside on Dec 25 in polo shirts and barbequing on the deck with 70 degree weather, I think anyone will say global warming is real (even skeptics).
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Warm start. lol
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
46* at 7AM this morning - feels more like early April
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
I'm keeping my mouth shut!
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
I'm betting this December will make it 18 months in a row of above normal temperatures but it can't possibly be worse than last December when the average temperature was a few degrees from a normal April. At least I hope it can't.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
November maps
U.S. Precip from normal
Northeast Precip from normal
U.S. Temp from normal:
Northeast Temp from normal:
U.S. Precip from normal
Northeast Precip from normal
U.S. Temp from normal:
Northeast Temp from normal:
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe
Yes sir...see my response to your video in the LR thread Ray
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe
Yes sir...see my response to your video in the LR thread Ray
Seent it aha My response to your most recent is there now as well :p
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Ray 12K NAM is listening to you - HAHAAHA as scott pointed out here we go!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
12z NAM suggests <1" of snow will fall across our NW areas Monday morning
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
The RGEM is a bit more aggressive
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
NAMER
Rb calling it again here peeps
Rb calling it again here peeps
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Started a thread for Monday. Another thread may be started for Wednesday, but right now, models are too warm. The High to the north is too weak and the southerly flow of mild air overpowers potential CAD.
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Well, the first four days of December are without question "cooler" than the first four days of last December.
Now, this has been brought up by CP that the last 17 months at CPK have averaged above normal. Well what I just did was take a look at what was the warmest year on record in NYC, 2012, and examined it in further detail. The NWS simply takes the average of the months and rounds it to the nearest tenth of a degree. While it will say it averaged 57.3, I took the sum of the highs and lows of every day that year, and when you average them out, it actually comes out to ~57.27596. Summing up the temperatures from every day this year through November, if the December average temperature is at least ~39.0484 degrees, than statistically, 2016 will overtake 2012 as the warmest year on record in NYC, even if Upton says it's a tie.
Now, this has been brought up by CP that the last 17 months at CPK have averaged above normal. Well what I just did was take a look at what was the warmest year on record in NYC, 2012, and examined it in further detail. The NWS simply takes the average of the months and rounds it to the nearest tenth of a degree. While it will say it averaged 57.3, I took the sum of the highs and lows of every day that year, and when you average them out, it actually comes out to ~57.27596. Summing up the temperatures from every day this year through November, if the December average temperature is at least ~39.0484 degrees, than statistically, 2016 will overtake 2012 as the warmest year on record in NYC, even if Upton says it's a tie.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
i just put up my outside christmas lights what a perfect day for that now i am ready for snow
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
frank 638 wrote:i just put up my outside christmas lights what a perfect day for that now i am ready for snow
Same here, almost done. I like to start it as the sun goes down so I can see how they look.
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Ice rink up yesterday - last three years I put them up before the Arctic thump - my neighbor swears this is real early and said are you sure? I said next weekend 12-9ish i'll be skating on this 18'x40' sucker - they looked at me bewildered!
Okay N & W again Tomorrow - this one could be the same for N&W as we have a LP sliding off the NJ Coast. May start a thread.
Okay N & W again Tomorrow - this one could be the same for N&W as we have a LP sliding off the NJ Coast. May start a thread.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
22.4, 89%, 29.86 R.
Got a WWA up here for maybe an inch tonite.Cold coming and maybe more snow Sunday nite.Hey, at least its a wintry December so far up here.
Got a WWA up here for maybe an inch tonite.Cold coming and maybe more snow Sunday nite.Hey, at least its a wintry December so far up here.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Definetly a wintry feel down here 31° this morning frost on cars
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Lots of frost around this morning. Going to warm up as a storm moves through this afternoon bringing mainly rain.
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Nice to know you are getting in the Christmas spirit up there Doc. It's going to be awhile for me on the coastal plain for me. Gee you got more snow coming tonight. Nice.....
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
oldtimer wrote:Nice to know you are getting in the Christmas spirit up there Doc. It's going to be awhile for me on the coastal plain for me. Gee you got more snow coming tonight. Nice.....
Hi,Oldtimer, yeah, the last few weeks have been a classic "more snow N and W of the City" type scenarios like back in the 50's and 60's.Brings to mind December 1966 when we visited my Uncles farm up in Westtown NY. right near High Point.We in Fort Lee maybe had a slushy inch or two on the ground while my Uncle had over 24 inches with constant snow showers, blowing and drifting.Yep, that's the way it used to be.Anyway, don't lose hope, the trends these days have been favoring you.look at last January's blizzard, I only got 10 inches,lol.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions
Check out these high temps for this week...brrr
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
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