December 2016 Observations & Discussions

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December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:44 pm

And so begins the month we can't stop talking about: December!

This is how the December 2015 thread began: With an ironic post from Janet.



Last December ended 13.3 degrees above average: 50.8, beating the old record of 44.1 in December 2001.  29 out of 31 days were at least 5 degrees above average.  And the other two were a couple of degrees above average.  The entire month came and went without a freezing temperature in NYC.

A month ago, Frank pledged this:



I don't think we'll see a big cold shot outside of something transient mid-month.

I posted this a few weeks ago and it is slightly modified based on error corrections.  You can visit the thread for details but these are some NYC December statistics since 1950.



May the odds be ever on our favor for some old-fashioned cold in time for Christmas!

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by dkodgis on Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:38 am

If we are all outside on Dec 25 in polo shirts and barbequing on the deck with 70 degree weather, I think anyone will say global warming is real (even skeptics).
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:11 am

Warm start. lol
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:38 am

46* at 7AM this morning - feels more like early April

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:50 am

I'm keeping my mouth shut! silent

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:43 pm

I'm betting this December will make it 18 months in a row of above normal temperatures but it can't possibly be worse than last December when the average temperature was a few degrees from a normal April. At least I hope it can't.
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:48 pm

November maps

U.S. Precip from normal



Northeast Precip from normal



U.S. Temp from normal:



Northeast Temp from normal:


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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:29 am

Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Wink Wink Wink Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 03, 2016 7:32 am

rb924119 wrote:Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Wink Wink Wink Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe

Yes sir...see my response to your video in the LR thread Ray

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:13 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Sneaky snow threat for Sunday night into Monday is gaining traction Wink Wink Wink Had a feeling it would. Wintry mix event for Tuesday-Wednesday also is looking likely based on the large-scale pattern. If trends with the first system hold today, I'm going to issue a first call map for it hehe

Yes sir...see my response to your video in the LR thread Ray

Seent it aha My response to your most recent is there now as well :p

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:04 am

Ray 12K NAM is listening to you - HAHAAHA as scott pointed out here we go!!


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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:09 pm

12z NAM suggests <1" of snow will fall across our NW areas Monday morning


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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:17 pm

The RGEM is a bit more aggressive


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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:24 pm

NAMER



Rb calling it again here peeps

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:27 pm

Started a thread for Monday. Another thread may be started for Wednesday, but right now, models are too warm. The High to the north is too weak and the southerly flow of mild air overpowers potential CAD.


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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:08 pm

Well, the first four days of December are without question "cooler" than the first four days of last December.

Now, this has been brought up by CP that the last 17 months at CPK have averaged above normal.  Well what I just did was take a look at what was the warmest year on record in NYC, 2012, and examined it in further detail.  The NWS simply takes the average of the months and rounds it to the nearest tenth of a degree.  While it will say it averaged 57.3, I took the sum of the highs and lows of every day that year, and when you average them out, it actually comes out to ~57.27596.  Summing up the temperatures from every day this year through November, if the December average temperature is at least ~39.0484 degrees, than statistically, 2016 will overtake 2012 as the warmest year on record in NYC, even if Upton says it's a tie.

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:24 pm

i just put up my outside christmas lights what a perfect day for that now i am ready for snow

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:07 pm

frank 638 wrote:i just put up my outside christmas lights what a perfect day for that now i am ready for snow

Same here, almost done. I like to start it as the sun goes down so I can see how they look.

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:07 am

Ice rink up yesterday - last three years I put them up before the Arctic thump - my neighbor swears this is real early and said are you sure? I said next weekend 12-9ish i'll be skating on this 18'x40' sucker - they looked at me bewildered!

Okay N & W again Tomorrow - this one could be the same for N&W as we have a LP sliding off the NJ Coast. May start a thread.

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:57 am

22.4, 89%, 29.86 R.

Got a WWA up here for maybe an inch tonite.Cold coming and maybe more snow Sunday nite.Hey, at least its a wintry December so far up here.
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:11 am

Definetly a wintry feel down here 31° this morning frost on cars
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:14 am

Lots of frost around this morning. Going to warm up as a storm moves through this afternoon bringing mainly rain.

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by oldtimer on Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:19 am

Nice to know you are getting in the Christmas spirit up there Doc. It's going to be awhile for me on the coastal plain for me. Gee you got more snow coming tonight. Nice.....

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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:50 am

oldtimer wrote:Nice to know you are getting in the Christmas spirit up there Doc.  It's going to be awhile for me on the coastal plain for me. Gee you got more snow coming tonight.  Nice.....

Hi,Oldtimer, yeah, the last few weeks have been a classic "more snow N and W of the City" type scenarios like back in the 50's and 60's.Brings to mind December 1966 when we visited my Uncles farm up in Westtown NY. right near High Point.We in Fort Lee maybe had a slushy inch or two on the ground while my Uncle had over 24 inches with constant snow showers, blowing and drifting.Yep, that's the way it used to be.Anyway, don't lose hope, the trends these days have been favoring you.look at last January's blizzard, I only got 10 inches,lol.
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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:41 pm

Check out these high temps for this week...brrr

Thursday



Friday



Saturday


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Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

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