Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
+18
docstox12
brownie
skinsfan1177
weatherwatchermom
NjWeatherGuy
1190ftalt
CPcantmeasuresnow
hyde345
Math23x7
marin1804
Radz
aiannone
snow247
sroc4
amugs
jmanley32
rb924119
Frank_Wx
22 posters
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Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Snow showers and a light accumulation is possible Monday morning for those N&W of NYC. NEPA, NW NJ, and all counties from Westchester-Rockland on north specifically stand the best chance to see snow.
RGEM 4am Monday
7am Monday
GFS 850mb temps
925mb temps
Dew Points
All valid for 7am.
No snow map for this event. Most places will be lucky to see 1 inch. Higher elevations in NEPA maybe 2 inches. Maybe this trends stronger tomorrow, but not a lot of juice behind this.
RGEM 4am Monday
7am Monday
GFS 850mb temps
925mb temps
Dew Points
All valid for 7am.
No snow map for this event. Most places will be lucky to see 1 inch. Higher elevations in NEPA maybe 2 inches. Maybe this trends stronger tomorrow, but not a lot of juice behind this.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
RPM Model snow amounts
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Thanks for starting another thread for this, Frank! I was going to ask you before I posted my map haha
I think this system, much like the last one, is going to surprise a lot of people. I think this comes in juicer than we are currently seeing modeled, but I also think we are seeing the short-range guidance beginning to pick up on the linkage between the forcing mechanisms like I discussed earlier. Anyway, here's my first call for the event:
Start: Between 11pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning
End: Between 10am and 1pm Monday
I will continue to follow this closely, and adjust as necessary. If I need to make any adjustments, I will issue a final call tomorrow.
I think this system, much like the last one, is going to surprise a lot of people. I think this comes in juicer than we are currently seeing modeled, but I also think we are seeing the short-range guidance beginning to pick up on the linkage between the forcing mechanisms like I discussed earlier. Anyway, here's my first call for the event:
Start: Between 11pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning
End: Between 10am and 1pm Monday
I will continue to follow this closely, and adjust as necessary. If I need to make any adjustments, I will issue a final call tomorrow.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Btw, Mugs, thanks for the compliments!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
GFS has 0 inches of snow while RGEM has 2-3" of snow early Monday morning.
Glad to see our models have a clue.
Glad to see our models have a clue.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS has 0 inches of snow while RGEM has 2-3" of snow early Monday morning.
Glad to see our models have a clue.
should we expect any differently going from the rest of this past year? LOL
I would just like to see some snow flakes, a dusting to an inch is alot more than last year in Dec. let alone not mention the aweful temps.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Mood flakes. Anything more is the cherry or the icing. N&W have the best chance for the cherry or the icing.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9" Â Â Â
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"Â
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
GFS took a step toward other guidance with showing a wetter system tomorrow. Now has a coating to an inch N&W of the NYC. Some snow or rain showers for NYC and everyone else. Moves in between 4 and 7am.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png
This falls in line with the NAM. So, I would go with a C-2" N&W of NYC, including NW NJ, and little to no accumulation everywhere else
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120406/namconus_asnow_neus_13.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png
This falls in line with the NAM. So, I would go with a C-2" N&W of NYC, including NW NJ, and little to no accumulation everywhere else
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120406/namconus_asnow_neus_13.png
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
12z NAM holds serve.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Not totally it was showing some snow for so there wc and nyc and now nothing darn. Oh well.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Still liking where this is heading, generally, in the modeling ;p ;p remember; SNEAKY lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
I'll take this over last December
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
True enough frank. Just finished visit Santa with my daughter and eating at cross county mall in yonkers and it actually feels a bit like winter.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Have to look at some more guidance, but I might be too low with numbers again with this one. Dendrite growth layer will be tapped and with lower level temps between 0 and -5C I'm thinking aggregates of dendrites could fall, especially across the northern tier of Pa, northwestern NJ, and the Mid-Hudson Valley, similar to the last event, which would really stack up quick.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
NAM continues to cut back for this. Now no accumulation for anyone except maybe Doc and CP.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
rb924119 wrote:Thanks for starting another thread for this, Frank! I was going to ask you before I posted my map haha
I think this system, much like the last one, is going to surprise a lot of people. I think this comes in juicer than we are currently seeing modeled, but I also think we are seeing the short-range guidance beginning to pick up on the linkage between the forcing mechanisms like I discussed earlier. Anyway, here's my first call for the event:
Start: Between 11pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning
End: Between 10am and 1pm Monday
I will continue to follow this closely, and adjust as necessary. If I need to make any adjustments, I will issue a final call tomorrow.
Thanks for using this map. I live so far west of everybody else that I'm always guessing what'll happen around here.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
I like the hrrr for tonight has snow up to coast starting around or just after midnight.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
35 here currently.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
31 here in Binghamton, NY. Expecting 1-2" tonight into tomorrow morning.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
33.1 here now after a high of 42.4
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
29 here and overcast.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
Remember I added the radar links at the top of the forum. Feel free to check them out.
This is dropping high snow amounts in the Great Lakes region.That is probably passing to our north. But there is plenty of moisture gathering in the southwest.
This is dropping high snow amounts in the Great Lakes region.That is probably passing to our north. But there is plenty of moisture gathering in the southwest.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations
HRRR @ 4:00am tomorrow. You can see where the rain/snow line is.
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