Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

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Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:24 pm

Snow showers and a light accumulation is possible Monday morning for those N&W of NYC. NEPA, NW NJ, and all counties from Westchester-Rockland on north specifically stand the best chance to see snow.

RGEM 4am Monday



7am Monday



GFS 850mb temps



925mb temps



Dew Points



All valid for 7am.

No snow map for this event. Most places will be lucky to see 1 inch. Higher elevations in NEPA maybe 2 inches. Maybe this trends stronger tomorrow, but not a lot of juice behind this.

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:25 pm

RPM Model snow amounts


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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 03, 2016 5:55 pm

Thanks for starting another thread for this, Frank! I was going to ask you before I posted my map haha

I think this system, much like the last one, is going to surprise a lot of people. I think this comes in juicer than we are currently seeing modeled, but I also think we are seeing the short-range guidance beginning to pick up on the linkage between the forcing mechanisms like I discussed earlier. Anyway, here's my first call for the event:

Start: Between 11pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning
End: Between 10am and 1pm Monday



I will continue to follow this closely, and adjust as necessary. If I need to make any adjustments, I will issue a final call tomorrow.

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:00 pm

Btw, Mugs, thanks for the compliments!! Thumbs up Thumbs up

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:41 pm

GFS has 0 inches of snow while RGEM has 2-3" of snow early Monday morning.

Glad to see our models have a clue.

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS has 0 inches of snow while RGEM has 2-3" of snow early Monday morning.

Glad to see our models have a clue.

should we expect any differently going from the rest of this past year? LOL

I would just like to see some snow flakes, a dusting to an inch is alot more than last year in Dec. let alone not mention the aweful temps.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by amugs on Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:54 pm


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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:42 am

Mood flakes. Anything more is the cherry or the icing. N&W have the best chance for the cherry or the icing.

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:27 am

GFS took a step toward other guidance with showing a wetter system tomorrow. Now has a coating to an inch N&W of the NYC. Some snow or rain showers for NYC and everyone else. Moves in between 4 and 7am.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

This falls in line with the NAM. So, I would go with a C-2" N&W of NYC, including NW NJ, and little to no accumulation everywhere else

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120406/namconus_asnow_neus_13.png

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:18 am

12z NAM holds serve.


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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:07 pm

Not totally it was showing some snow for so there wc and nyc and now nothing darn. Oh well.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:08 pm



Still liking where this is heading, generally, in the modeling ;p ;p remember; SNEAKY lmao

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:01 pm

I'll take this over last December Very Happy

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:16 pm

True enough frank. Just finished visit Santa with my daughter and eating at cross county mall in yonkers and it actually feels a bit like winter.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:21 pm

Have to look at some more guidance, but I might be too low with numbers again with this one. Dendrite growth layer will be tapped and with lower level temps between 0 and -5C I'm thinking aggregates of dendrites could fall, especially across the northern tier of Pa, northwestern NJ, and the Mid-Hudson Valley, similar to the last event, which would really stack up quick.

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by snow247 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:16 pm

NAM continues to cut back for this. Now no accumulation for anyone except maybe Doc and CP.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by TheAresian on Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:16 pm

rb924119 wrote:Thanks for starting another thread for this, Frank! I was going to ask you before I posted my map haha

I think this system, much like the last one, is going to surprise a lot of people. I think this comes in juicer than we are currently seeing modeled, but I also think we are seeing the short-range guidance beginning to pick up on the linkage between the forcing mechanisms like I discussed earlier. Anyway, here's my first call for the event:

Start: Between 11pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning
End: Between 10am and 1pm Monday



I will continue to follow this closely, and adjust as necessary. If I need to make any adjustments, I will issue a final call tomorrow.

Thanks for using this map. I live so far west of everybody else that I'm always guessing what'll happen around here.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:19 pm

I like the hrrr for tonight has snow up to coast starting around or just after midnight.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by snow247 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:20 pm

35 here currently.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:26 pm

31 here in Binghamton, NY. Expecting 1-2" tonight into tomorrow morning.
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Radz on Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:46 pm

33.1 here now after a high of 42.4
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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by marin1804 on Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:05 pm

29 here and overcast.

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:35 pm

Remember I added the radar links at the top of the forum. Feel free to check them out.

This is dropping high snow amounts in the Great Lakes region.That is probably passing to our north. But there is plenty of moisture gathering in the southwest.


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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:36 pm


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: Monday 12/5 Snow Showers Discussion / Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:38 pm

HRRR @ 4:00am tomorrow. You can see where the rain/snow line is.


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2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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