Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Looking at the soundings on the 18z GFS it is expecting freezing rain at Teterboro, then going to rain, so I think it is going to be close....

Is anyone doing a write up on this one.

We tap some gulf moisture here and then
Gfs has an amped system, not seeing how it gets so amped imo. 

It will be tapping some gulf moisture though

amugs wrote:We tap some gulf moisture here and then
Gfs has an amped system, not seeing how it gets so amped imo. 

It will be tapping some gulf moisture though

I don't know if you read my writeup from earlier, but I think it's due to vortex tube stretching, as this type of setup looks prime for that to occur in my opinion. I'm actually siding with the GFS on this one, at least for now.

A write up for Monday's storm was posted in a separate thread. Update #2 will come tomorrow.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t759-monday-12-12-storm-update-1#95942

First play by play of the season? Why not.

Open up the war room Frank!!

00z GFS compared to 18z valid 10am Saturday, confluence over the Great Lakes is stronger keeping heights a bit flatter.

Tell you what, valid 1am Sunday, 00z GFS looks much different aloft compared to 18z. Weaker lead energy, stronger confluence, flatter contours across the U.S. I like it. Of course it could crap out in just a couple of frames but we'll see.

Where the GFS differs with EURO is by early Sunday. GFS has an extra vort from the PV that tries to phase with the lead PAC energy. EURO does not have the PV vort. That vort could be the reason why the GFS is developing a surface low. We'll let the run play out. 

Yea, by late Sunday heights begin to rise over the G/L on the GFS because it's phasing too much energy over the center of the country. EURO still has deamplified heights over the EC at this time. Need less PV influence from the GFS. 

00z Canadian - snow to rain but decent amount of front end

Hearing last night model runs not so good

In the play by play last night and in my writeup, I expressed concern a piece of vorticity could break off the PV and phase with the leading PAC energy which would amplify the trough and surface low. The EURO last night took a step toward the GFS by showing that small but important 500mb vort breaking off the PV.

If that feature is real - and it looks like it but let's see what today brings - then NYC will see very minor snow from this and mainly rain.

Look at North Dakota. You'll see which vort I'm talking about.

12z EURO valid 7am Sunday



00z EURO valid 7am Sunday

A significant trend that I have noticed over the last two days is models bring the main energy further N as it makes it into the plains.  On Dec 7th all models had the main energy as far south as the Missouri/Arkansas boarder. Now it is no further south then Iowa/Missouri boarder. Here are the images I posted from the Dec7th 12z suites followed by the current model run valid 6z Monday for each model:









Now of course as been stated the stronger the system when it reaches the Ohio valley the higher the heights get out ahead of it and the quicker the warming of the low levels.  Ironically the Euro had the strongest energy on the 7th runs with GFS the weakest, and now the GFS is strongest.  That said even with a weaker system with the energy further north as depicted by the latest set of runs this in effect leads to a boundary layer that will be further north to begin with.  So even the weaker soln its going to take less of a height rise to bring the warmer 925mb and 850mb into the southern portions of the region making it even tougher now for the coastal plain to see any significant accumulations (ie: > or = to an inch or more).  I'm not saying it  still cant and/or wont happen but for the coastal plain trends are not in our favor.   The energy that will bring this event is coming onshore today into the overnight tonight so thre is still time for trends for better or worse.

Frank_Wx wrote:In the play by play last night and in my writeup, I expressed concern a piece of vorticity could break off the PV and phase with the leading PAC energy which would amplify the trough and surface low. The EURO last night took a step toward the GFS by showing that small but important 500mb vort breaking off the PV.

If that feature is real - and it looks like it but let's see what today brings - then NYC will see very minor snow from this and mainly rain.

Frank not that it makes a huge difference in the long run, but if you follow frame by frame I'm not sure its actually a piece from the PV that interacts but rather two separate pieces from the same original energy that get created as the main energy moves onshore and gets torn up a bit as it passes over the rockies. As both pieces re-emerge on the other side and head east they then interact once again.  








I guess this small semantic may be important in that models may not have a handle on how weak or strong the two pieces actually are because the interactions with the Rockies could be highly variable. Just a thought.

Also can anyone answer couldn't we benefit of the storm is stronger and acts as 50-50 for the next event?

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also can anyone answer couldn't we benefit of the storm is stronger and acts as 50-50 for the next event?

Unfortunately us "losers" down here on the coastal plain have been and will continue to think just this way Skins as freakin storm after storm Just Keeps on Cuttin"!  I may have to right a country song about this early winter pattern.

syosnow94 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also can anyone answer couldn't we benefit of the storm is stronger and acts as 50-50 for the next event?

Unfortunately us "losers" down here on the coastal plain have been and will continue to think just this way Skins as freakin storm after storm Just Keeps on Cuttin"!  I may have to right a country song about this early winter pattern.

In time we will

"Just Keeps on Cuttin" has a nice ring to it. Go for it, James.

syosnow94 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also can anyone answer couldn't we benefit of the storm is stronger and acts as 50-50 for the next event?

Unfortunately us "losers" down here on the coastal plain have been and will continue to think just this way Skins as freakin storm after storm Just Keeps on Cuttin"!  I may have to right a country song about this early winter pattern.

"My wife done left me,
pickup truck just died,
cutters keep a comin',
gonna sit and cry!"

Oh that's great Doc. I'm a drummer. I will put a funky beat to it!! Need one more verse then the bridge and we are home. Lol

In all serious does a stronger storm on Monday help us better with a 50/50 low for next storm.

oldtimer wrote:Oh that's great Doc. I'm a drummer. I will put a funky beat to it!!  Need one more verse  then the bridge and we are home. Lol

Ok Oldtimer,lol.I put it out there for others to pick it up and add to it for fun.Nice easy 3 chord country song,lol.

28.9, 81%, 29.81 R.

Sunny. Had a light flurry earlier.

skinsfan1177 wrote:In all serious does a stronger storm on Monday help us better with a 50/50 low for next storm.

Possibly skins. Models aren't showing this just yet, but energy for the first storm is only today and tonight coming ashore in the west.

sroc4 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:In all serious does a stronger storm on Monday help us better with a 50/50 low for next storm.

Possibly skins. Models aren't showing this just yet, but energy for the first storm is only today and tonight coming ashore in the west.

Thank you Sroc