Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:31 am

31* feel temp of 23 with winds about 10-14 mph give or take.

TWC seems to like the current set up from last night, snow to all rain for majority of the area.
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:35 am

docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Also can anyone answer couldn't we benefit of the storm is stronger and acts as 50-50 for the next event?


Unfortunately us "losers" down here on the coastal plain have been and will continue to think just this way Skins as freakin storm after storm Just Keeps on Cuttin"!  I may have to right a country song about this early winter pattern. Mad Evil or Very Mad

"My wife done left me,
pickup truck just died,
cutters keep a comin',
gonna sit  and cry!"

"Bringing back memories of last December,
A time in my life, I don't want to remember,
There was no cold air, and I had no money,
Just memories of my ex wife, the playboy bunny"
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:41 am

Although hilarious, I moved the above convo to Banter:

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by jake732 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:51 am

http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/12/sunday-night-storm.html
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:31 am

12z gfs and Nam show start after midnight with a short window of cold before changing to rain Monday.

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:51 am

Not looking good for NYC south
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:05 pm

12Z GFS



CMC



YUGE EURO RUN this afternoon 12Z

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:08 pm

this storm is going to help create a 50-50 low which should help to create at least some blocking and it will also create a trough that keeps us in a colder pattern for a longer period of time. Its actually the best thing that could happen, the stronger the storm, the better.
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:08 pm

NWS Upton...2-3 for NNJ less going south and east. Also .5"-1" rain.... sorry don't have time for maps etc!

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:39 pm

The GFS still has that vort over North Dakota phasing into the lead PAC energy. This leads me to believe that is a real vort and not "phantom" Most likaly, it's going to come down to interaction. Too much phasing will develop a surface low and shoot it into the Lakes. Less interaction will keep the energy moving along the zonal flow east into our area with the baroclinic line to our S&E, keeping cold air intact.

That is what the Canadian model is doing. Too bad the EURO made a step toward the GFS last night. I have a feeling that will end up being the outcome. A coating to maybe 1" of snow before a changeover to rain. Those N&W of NYC will see more snow. We'll see what happens with the EURO later on.

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:11 pm

Out to 72 euro coming in a little better than 00z. Flatter overall with less interaction

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:18 pm

HOLY POOP EURO SAVES THE DAY - much flatter and holds serves up a paste job sorry coast yuor toast N& W FTW!!

Hours 57 - 75 are very intersting N & W as per SV maps - if we could that 32* line to press further south then Franks maps from last night are BAZINGAA BABy.

CP and DOc ore a jackpot as well as RAy and Snow in EPA


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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:20 pm

Euro brings the 2-3" line down to the immediate coast leaving LI out. N NYC in; S NYC out

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:23 pm






_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by algae888 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:13 pm

So here's the breakdown All 4 major models have low pressure  over the Eastern Great Lakes by 7 a.m. Monday.
Gfs 1000mb, ukie 1005, euro 1009 and cmc 1010. It's plain to see the weaker systems have more snow for the New York City area. Hoping we can get on the board with this system with more to follow. I'm already having more fun than last year
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:15 pm

Euro looks nothing like the GFS. Good test for the new Euro

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by snow247 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:29 pm



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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by docstox12 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:24 pm

Local 12 Hudson Valley weather has maybe 2 inches with a changeover to rain up here by 4:30 AM.Don't know aht they are looking at,LOL.
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:52 pm


_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:04 pm

amugs wrote:

Long Island stays white like snow the entire time Mugs...is that good scratch geek

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:09 pm

amugs wrote:HOLY POOP EURO SAVES THE DAY - much flatter and holds serves up a paste job sorry coast yuor toast N& W FTW!!

Hours 57 - 75 are very intersting N & W as per SV maps  - if we could that 32* line to press further south then Franks maps from last night are BAZINGAA BABy.

CP and DOc ore a jackpot as well as RAy and Snow in EPA


As much as it pains me to say this, I am still very hesitant to think that very much snow is going to fall south of the NY/PA state borders. I'll reassess tomorrow after the 12z runs, but I think this ends up as a "warm" system for most as of this point. I'm liking the American suite of models right now, honestly, and yes the NAM is included in that (oh Lord, give me strength and forgive my trespasses for buying into the NAM lmfao)


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:10 pm

no one gets more than 1-3" on this based on the above run screw this storm. This years' motto........... (hopefully i'm wrong) ON TO THE NEXT ONE!!!
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by algae888 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:18 pm

Nws discounting the nam all together although the 4k nam has some snow Sunday afternoon for most of the area. It's a very tricky setup and it's still pretty early in the season but setups like this any delay in the changeover then many areas could see their first accumulating snow. Even though the high is not in the ideal position I like these over running events with Front end thumps of snow. This winter is progressing fine with snow first for Inland areas working its way towards the coast. Throw in a mixed event snow to rain like we have this Sunday and Monday and this is very typical winter and December very different from the last four or five years
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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:26 pm

algae888 wrote:Nws discounting the nam all together although the 4k nam has some snow Sunday afternoon for most of the area. It's a very tricky setup and it's still pretty early in the season but setups like this any delay in the changeover then many areas could see their first accumulating snow. Even though the high is not in the ideal position I like these over running events with Front end  thumps of snow. This winter is progressing fine with snow first for Inland areas working its way towards the coast. Throw in a mixed event snow to rain like we have this Sunday and Monday and this is very typical winter and December very different from the last four or five years

Could you post that discussion? I wonder why they're completely throwing it away? I can understand the QPF forecast, but the synoptic development I actually agree with; the GFS too, to be honest.

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

Post by Quietace on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:no one gets more than 1-3" on this based on the above run  screw this storm.  This years' motto........... (hopefully i'm wrong) ON TO THE NEXT ONE!!!
Hi.

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Re: Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

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