December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:20 am

Good Morning -

Last night I mentioned my concern is growing for excess ice accretion to impact the area Saturday mid morning into early afternoon.

850mb temps valid 7am Saturday:



The red solid line in south-central NJ is essentially your "rain/snow" line. As the morning progresses, this line will gradually works its way north and change snow over to freezing rain/sleet then eventually plain rain. The reason why I am concerned about ice accretion is because low level cold, or surface temperatures, are shown to be below freezing until around 12pm. This means there could be a 2 to 3 hour period of freezing rain and sleet falling for parts of eastern PA and northern NJ.

12z GFS freezing rain map:



4km NAM freezing rain map:



It makes sense, right? Our low temperatures last night were near the single digits and tonight they'll drop into the teens. The surface is very cold and will not rebound right away. Mild air will penetrate the lower levels of our atmosphere (850mb/925mb) but that does not mean the surface will warm to above freezing right away.

TIMING:

Start: 12am-2am
End: 4pm-7pm

Light snow will commence after Midnight. Snow will turn moderate around Dawn and stay all snow through 9-10am. Between 10am-12pm is when I think there will be a period of sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain for much of the area. Especially west of NYC into eastern PA and northern NJ. Coastal NJ, NYC, and LI should NOT see much in the way of ice accretion. Those areas will see snow until 9 or 10am then switch to rain. There may be a brief period of icing. Those easterly and southerly winds will make your surface temps rise to above freezing much faster than inland areas.

Here is my final call snow map. Those N&W of NYC will also not see much in the way of ice. You will still mainly snow then switch to rain sometime in the early afternoon. My guess is 12:00pm. But keep in mind by 1-2pm the heaviest precip is exiting the area so not a whole lot of rain may fall. Winds will be sustained in the 15-25mph range with gusts near 40mph.




Sunday morning I think gusts could achieve 50-55mph. Look for rain much of the day Sunday with a changeover back to snow with minor accumulations between 5-7pm. Not a great weekend.

If you're in northern NJ and eastern PA, please be on alert for ice mid to late Saturday morning. If these models are correct about a quarter of an inch of ice accumulating, that would be VERY TREACHEROUS for commuting and WILL cause accidents and a host of other issues. Even one tenth of ice accretion is enough to cost problems. There may be power outages in these areas too. Please prepare. Ice is a difficult forecast but better to be safe than sorry. Hopefully the models bust with the ice forecast.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 6:34 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:26 am

Thanks for all the info. You got me just barely in the 3 to 6 and though u say just nj and pa that. .29 snd .25 ice just north of nyc on those maps sits right over me so will b watch for that. Not going anywhere I'm pretty sure but concerned about accidents on my hill. People can't drive on it in snow let alone ice.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:48 am

Very nice, thank you as always
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:09 pm

Euro came out 10 minutes ago and has a very similar snow map to mine.


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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:11 pm

I may make a slight change to my snow map later tonight to bring the 2 to 4" zone further south into Central NJ / Staten Island.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:14 pm

[quote="Frank_Wx"]Euro came out 10 minutes ago and has a very similar snow map to mine.

[/quotI'm in the 3" and my parents in the 6-8" jackpot. EURO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cool
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro came out 10 minutes ago and has a very similar snow map to mine.


Looks like ours Wink

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:23 pm

Euro has these east and northeast winds too! Popping teh Meso and teh RGEM led teh way this peeps - wow.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Euro came out 10 minutes ago and has a very similar snow map to mine.


Looks like ours Wink

Yes, though we may have to move higher amounts a little more S&E.

amugs wrote:Euro has these east and northeast winds too! Popping teh Meso and teh RGEM led teh way this peeps - wow.

RGEM did a good job with that. The cold wedge may hold on an hour longer.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:34 pm

Holy POOP this is for real and Doug fresh and Gun bot agree with Earthlight on this - Jesus for these to concur on such is a YUGGGE NOD to this development



Last edited by amugs on Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:37 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Euro came out 10 minutes ago and has a very similar snow map to mine.


Looks like ours Wink

Yes, though we may have to move higher amounts a little more S&E.

amugs wrote:Euro has these east and northeast winds too! Popping teh Meso and teh RGEM led teh way this peeps - wow.

RGEM did a good job with that. The cold wedge may hold on an hour longer.

Ill likely leave things be. I covered for higher totals in stating that if the cold hangs on an hr or two longer all totals in the coastal plain zones could pick up an additional two inches or so, so that leaves me with a reasonable ceiling for zones 1, 2, and 2A on my map. If I bust low on that well...Ill take that one on the chin gladly. lol. I already set my cell phone alram to 4:30am because I dont want to miss it if it changes over early...such a weenie. cheers

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:52 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Euro came out 10 minutes ago and has a very similar snow map to mine.


Looks like ours Wink

Yes, though we may have to move higher amounts a little more S&E.

amugs wrote:Euro has these east and northeast winds too! Popping teh Meso and teh RGEM led teh way this peeps - wow.

RGEM did a good job with that. The cold wedge may hold on an hour longer.

Ill likely leave things be.  I covered for higher totals in stating that if the cold hangs on an hr or two longer all totals in the coastal plain zones could pick up an additional two inches or so,  so that leaves me with a reasonable ceiling for zones 1, 2, and 2A on my map.   If I bust low on that well...Ill take that one on the chin gladly.  lol.  I already set my cell phone alram to 4:30am because I dont want to miss it if it changes over early...such a weenie. cheers


You are going to sleep??? Haha not me!

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:54 pm

You're both nuts. I'm going to bed at 3am (probably when I'll get home tonight) and sleeping until 10am.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:48 pm

Meso coming to fruition- Earthlight barking at this:
Not difficult to visualize how the development of this mesoscale low pressure will impact the forecast, especially over Northern NJ/Southeast NY/CT. A coastal front will eventually develop northward from Ambrose Light towards the Long Island S Shore -- and with the SLP developing to the south, the surface wind flow will support enhancement of northeast winds in those areas. Even the northern 1/3 of the metro could benefit from this -- as well as nassau county. You can visualize here on the HRRR the coastal front pushing into NY Harbor.




PS - Don't use global operational in this setup. Any higher res ensembles (eps, sref) plus mesoscale models of choice (rgem, hdrps, nam 3km preferred

Said yesterday that Hi Res SR models would see this LLC and this feature best

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:52 pm

If the cold air hangs around longer, I honestly don't think that this developing low pressure, if it does indeed develop as modeled, will be the cause. If it was, it would have to at least become a closed circulation through 850 hPa so that its own circulation could combat the strong background warm air advection. As we see it, it barely closes its circulation off by the time it gets to eastern LI at the surface, with no evidence there even is a circulation above that. The low-level jet is much too strong in this case, and is going to shear anything that tries to ball up immediately. If the column does remain colder longer, and this is only my opinion, it will be thanks to the dynamics associated with the strong vertical motions created by the frontogenesis, both synoptic and mess-scale, along with any additional help from the mid and upper levels. I'm still thinking the warm air comes in faster than modeled (yes, I know I'm outnumbered haha). One thing to also consider, is with these events I've tended to notice when the precipitation starts becoming heavier, riming starts taking place on the snowflakes so that they end up falling as snow grains, likely due to mixed-phase clouds, which will help limit accumulations. Again, just stating my opinion here, and am waiting for 18z's before I make a final call.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:11 pm

amugs wrote:Meso coming to fruition- Earthlight barking at this:
Not difficult to visualize how the development of this mesoscale low pressure will impact the forecast, especially over Northern NJ/Southeast NY/CT. A coastal front will eventually develop northward from Ambrose Light towards the Long Island S Shore -- and with the SLP developing to the south, the surface wind flow will support enhancement of northeast winds in those areas. Even the northern 1/3 of the metro could benefit from this -- as well as nassau county. You can visualize here on the HRRR the coastal front pushing into NY Harbor.




PS - Don't use global operational in this setup. Any higher res ensembles (eps, sref) plus mesoscale models of choice (rgem, hdrps, nam 3km preferred

Said yesterday that Hi Res SR models would see this LLC and this feature best

I can see his point. With the cold air draining to this isallobaric low and then running into the surface and extreme low-level warm air advection, you will definitely create a coastal front. Now, assuming the cold air is a uniform 20° and the ocean-influenced warm advection air is uniformly 40°, at the front these two airmasses collide and mix (ideally) to assume a mixed temperature of 30°. Sub-freezing, and when you lift this air, it remains sub-freezing. No arguments from me there. But, the air being moved by the winds associated with the warm advection on the south side of the front is being moved by wind that is already between 20-30 knots while the air draining down from the north is moving at maybe 5-10 knots (at most). My point is, there is going to be a much larger influx of warmer air than cold air in the same amount of time, so while the ratio may initially be 50/50, it will quickly tilt in favor of the warmth getting north of the surface boundary, as the warmer air mixes out the lower influxes of colder air. Maybe I'm far out with this, but I just can't see how this low will trap the cold air. I would think the warm advection will win out quickly aloft.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:17 pm

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Meso coming to fruition- Earthlight barking at this:
Not difficult to visualize how the development of this mesoscale low pressure will impact the forecast, especially over Northern NJ/Southeast NY/CT. A coastal front will eventually develop northward from Ambrose Light towards the Long Island S Shore -- and with the SLP developing to the south, the surface wind flow will support enhancement of northeast winds in those areas. Even the northern 1/3 of the metro could benefit from this -- as well as nassau county. You can visualize here on the HRRR the coastal front pushing into NY Harbor.




PS - Don't use global operational in this setup. Any higher res ensembles (eps, sref) plus mesoscale models of choice (rgem, hdrps, nam 3km preferred

Said yesterday that Hi Res SR models would see this LLC and this feature best

I can see his point. With the cold air draining to this isallobaric low and then running into the surface and extreme low-level warm air advection, you will definitely create a coastal front. Now, assuming the cold air is a uniform 20° and the ocean-influenced warm advection air is uniformly 40°, at the front these two airmasses collide and mix (ideally) to assume a mixed temperature of 30°. Sub-freezing, and when you lift this air, it remains sub-freezing. No arguments from me there. But, the air being moved by the winds associated with the warm advection on the south side of the front is being moved by wind that is already between 20-30 knots while the air draining down from the north is moving at maybe 5-10 knots (at most). My point is, there is going to be a much larger influx of warmer air than cold air in the same amount of time, so while the ratio may initially be 50/50, it will quickly tilt in favor of the warmth getting north of the surface boundary, as the warmer air mixes out the lower influxes of colder air. Maybe I'm far out with this, but I just can't see how this low will trap the cold air. I would think the warm advection will win out quickly aloft.

If nothing else it's an interesting argument for the 50% or so of it I understand.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:25 pm

rb924119 wrote:If the cold air hangs around longer, I honestly don't think that this developing low pressure, if it does indeed develop as modeled, will be the cause. If it was, it would have to at least become a closed circulation through 850 hPa so that its own circulation could combat the strong background warm air advection. As we see it, it barely closes its circulation off by the time it gets to eastern LI at the surface, with no evidence there even is a circulation above that. The low-level jet is much too strong in this case, and is going to shear anything that tries to ball up immediately. If the column does remain colder longer, and this is only my opinion, it will be thanks to the dynamics associated with the strong vertical motions created by the frontogenesis, both synoptic and mess-scale, along with any additional help from the mid and upper levels. I'm still thinking the warm air comes in faster than modeled (yes, I know I'm outnumbered haha). One thing to also consider, is with these events I've tended to notice when the precipitation starts becoming heavier, riming starts taking place on the snowflakes so that they end up falling as snow grains, likely due to mixed-phase clouds, which will help limit accumulations. Again, just stating my opinion here, and am waiting for 18z's before I make a final call.

So far the 18z NAM holds serve with bringing the higher totals south

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:27 pm





NE winds will shut off WAA and LI and Jim are saved - IF he cries I will ban him till next year after Scott batman's him a few times!! Laughing Laughing

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:29 pm

Look at the highs now for Saturday


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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:37 pm

amugs wrote:



NE winds will shut off WAA and LI and Jim are saved - IF he cries I will ban him till next year after Scott batman's him a few times!! Laughing Laughing

AT THE SURFACE IT STOPS THE ADVECTION, but not aloft, which is where it matters lmao I'm going to sit quietly for a little and think ahaha

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:52 pm

Ice ice baby !! 


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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:54 pm

What is the circled area that I am in mugs?
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:56 pm

amugs wrote:Ice ice baby !! 

all I can say good thing not a work day this b disaster and probably drill will b as people go b caught off guard. Most ppl I know have no clue it's gping to snow. Coupled with 40mph winds those,areas tgat see .25 or more may see power issues too. .25 right imb according to tgat image. Wow .44 in nj yikes.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:59 pm

Good thing the highest win ds for sun morning aren't on sat. All the ice b gone but Def stI'll possible to have power issues with gusts to 50 55 plus. Ice or not.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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