December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:22 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:23 am


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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:24 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

Haha,.no not talk about anyone's map really. Just an observation from the complains via Facebook.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:27 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

Haha,.no not talk about anyone's map really. Just an observation from the complains via Facebook.

By and large all three maps are on track thus far. Well done fellas

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by docstox12 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:27 am

22.4, 86%, 29.77 F

Moderate snow, looks like 1 1/2 eyeballed here.Looks like its mixing near Jersey Shore and LI so maybe a few hours more of snow up here.Probably gonna be on the low side of that 3 to 6 forecast for here unless rates bump up.Plows coming through as I type this.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:29 am

Upton says mix line will hit NYC at 8:45

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:29 am

Madonne, snowing good now.

R/S line is close. You can tell it's fighting off boundary level cold. It's probably 30 to 40 minutes early though. Let's see if it keeps fighting.


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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by billg315 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:30 am

26* and I can now hear the telltale patter of sleet or freezing rain mixed in with the snow.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:30 am

@Scott - in the app I had the option to save as GIF

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:31 am

Likely the beginning of the end but huge blow up of intense snaowfall rates over eastern Suffolk. Very heavy rates right now.



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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:31 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

Haha,.no not talk about anyone's map really. Just an observation from the complains via Facebook.

By and large all three maps are on track thus far.  Well done fellas

Agreed, though I didn't expect the cold to hold this long for the eastern half of LI, so I failed there. I'm also cutting it close up here because it's been heavy snow here for a little while now and we may eclipse my 3" limit. But you're right, the bigger picture is pretty close Smile

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:32 am

There is the surface low...


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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:33 am

2" here so far, heavy snow still, 25°. Not going to shovel until all is done, since I don't want the freezing rain on blacktop...

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:33 am

sroc4 wrote:Likely the beginning of the end but huge blow up of intense snaowfall rates over eastern Suffolk. Very heavy rates right now.



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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:34 am

Frank_Wx wrote:There is the surface low...


If that could just move NE a little that would be great...head to the BM please

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by algae888 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:37 am

2+" of snow and snowing mod. right now. models did well as 3-5" should fall across metro area.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:38 am

You've got excellent surface frontogenesis and 850mb frontogenesis. Likely why there are these two very heavy dbz bands developing.




_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:42 am


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:43 am

850mb temps


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2017-2018:

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:45 am

Anybody have dual-pol? Frank?

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:46 am

Someone wake up mugsy. Dude runs around on here all but sleeps through best part of the storm

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:47 am



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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:49 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Someone wake up mugsy. Dude runs around on here all  but sleeps through best part of the storm

lol! Mugs your missing the party !!

party party party party party

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:50 am


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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:50 am

3" on the ground and really ripping right now easy 1.5" per hour. If that surface low can slow down the advancement of the R/S line another 2 hours then party party party party

another thing to consider is the back edge of the precip is approaching Eastern Pa. If there's not a lot of precip. left after the changeover, the snow might actually stick around all day.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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