Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:18 am

Frank your map spot in for my area

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:18 am

Getting hammered right now. Gotta smell the rain to get the best rates.

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:22 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:23 am

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:24 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

Haha,.no not talk about anyone's map really. Just an observation from the complains via Facebook.

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:27 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

Haha,.no not talk about anyone's map really. Just an observation from the complains via Facebook.

By and large all three maps are on track thus far. Well done fellas

by **docstox12** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:27 am

22.4, 86%, 29.77 F

Moderate snow, looks like 1 1/2 eyeballed here.Looks like its mixing near Jersey Shore and LI so maybe a few hours more of snow up here.Probably gonna be on the low side of that 3 to 6 forecast for here unless rates bump up.Plows coming through as I type this.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:29 am

Upton says mix line will hit NYC at 8:45

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:29 am

Madonne, snowing good now.

R/S line is close. You can tell it's fighting off boundary level cold. It's probably 30 to 40 minutes early though. Let's see if it keeps fighting.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 82eb2fbd-55ef-413e-a9ff-8399e1948e5c.gif.6ff2b1898201ec251b2050124444daca

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 82eb2fbd-55ef-413e-a9ff-8399e1948e5c.gif.6ff2b1898201ec251b2050124444daca

by **billg315** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:30 am

26* and I can now hear the telltale patter of sleet or freezing rain mixed in with the snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:30 am

@Scott - in the app I had the option to save as GIF

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:31 am

Likely the beginning of the end but huge blow up of intense snaowfall rates over eastern Suffolk. Very heavy rates right now.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 Img_4017

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 Img_4017

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:31 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Busts for who? Obs look right on track lmao

On Facebook people in Allentown area said they have coatings to 1 inch. I definitely thought more for them. NJ/NYC seem to be on track.

Ooooooo ahahaha ok. I didn't know to whose map(s) or observations you were referring to ahaha

Haha,.no not talk about anyone's map really. Just an observation from the complains via Facebook.

By and large all three maps are on track thus far. Well done fellas

Agreed, though I didn't expect the cold to hold this long for the eastern half of LI, so I failed there. I'm also cutting it close up here because it's been heavy snow here for a little while now and we may eclipse my 3" limit. But you're right, the bigger picture is pretty close Smile

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:32 am

There is the surface low...

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 Pmsl

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:33 am

2" here so far, heavy snow still, 25°. Not going to shovel until all is done, since I don't want the freezing rain on blacktop...

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:33 am

sroc4 wrote:Likely the beginning of the end but huge blow up of intense snaowfall rates over eastern Suffolk. Very heavy rates right now.

"We've never seen such incredible snowfall rates!! We're eclipsing the 'Smiley Face' rate seldom seen but often dreamed of!!"

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:34 am

Frank_Wx wrote:There is the surface low...

If that could just move NE a little that would be great...head to the BM please

by **algae888** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:37 am

2+" of snow and snowing mod. right now. models did well as 3-5" should fall across metro area.

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:38 am

You've got excellent surface frontogenesis and 850mb frontogenesis. Likely why there are these two very heavy dbz bands developing.

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 Sfnt

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 Sfnt

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 8fnt_sf

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:42 am

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:43 am

850mb temps

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 58553237eee72_12-17-20167-37-43AM.jpg.a951620a0bbc6197ff91ba247ba3d7b6

December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations - Page 6 58553237eee72_12-17-20167-37-43AM.jpg.a951620a0bbc6197ff91ba247ba3d7b6

by **rb924119** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:45 am

Anybody have dual-pol? Frank?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:46 am

Someone wake up mugsy. Dude runs around on here all but sleeps through best part of the storm

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:47 am

by **sroc4** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:49 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Someone wake up mugsy. Dude runs around on here all but sleeps through best part of the storm

Mugs your missing the party !!

party

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:50 am

by Guest Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:50 am

3" on the ground and really ripping right now easy 1.5" per hour. If that surface low can slow down the advancement of the R/S line another 2 hours then party

another thing to consider is the back edge of the precip is approaching Eastern Pa. If there's not a lot of precip. left after the changeover, the snow might actually stick around all day.

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