December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
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frank 638
tigernumba1
devsman
nutleyblizzard
aiannone
oldtimer
Vinnydula
docstox12
roccuweather
billg315
NjWeatherGuy
Dtone
2004blackwrx
Snow88
skinsfan1177
Math23x7
algae888
snow247
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sroc4
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31 posters
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
rarely see icing that is as bad as forecasted
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Wow, thats some dayumm heavy freezing rain for a big area, only lasts a few hrs but thats enough to cause major trouble.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
I agree models show it, I just feel it never verifies to be as bad
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Also noting on 00z NAM the temps never get higher than 32-35 IMB, thats still cold enough for snow, but I undetrstand in this cae the 850 temps are important too if not more, but the fact they are that low leads me to believe the rain will freeze on contact.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
2004blackwrx wrote:I agree models show it, I just feel it never verifies to be as bad
can be true but id still be careful venturing out. easiest way to tell look at branches, if covered in ice not good.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
safety first always, with ice I always worry about power outages first. I will figure out the roads. Radar shows precip on the way soon
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
2004blackwrx wrote:safety first always, with ice I always worry about power outages first. I will figure out the roads. Radar shows precip on the way soon
yeah luckily the high winds (which we may get a warrented warning for sat night into sunday with 50-55mph gusts maybe higher, last nights was a big opps for NWS, I barely heard anything) will not be at the same time as any ice lessening the issues for power. Of course if ice gets above .25 then you gotta worry. I have only once seen the aftermath 1st hand of a ice storm of 1 inches in mountainous area of CT, wow what a mess.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
22°F here every flake will accumulate
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Okay, where does news 12 get their info from? No wonder no on is prepping or talking of anything. meaning in the coating to 2 inch area which has been showing much more on models and pretty much agreed here it will b 2 plus. even my wwa says 3 to 5 with .10 ice. and i think the ice may b low.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
3-6 for me looks good but I only read that as 6 haha.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
If I had to guess snow is at Ny Penn border
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Snow now reported in Binghamton. Shouldn't be too long now for our western members.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
I recommend everyone downloads and uses the mPING report app for their phone. Could be very helpful especially during a storm like this.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
W00T let's do some now casting
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Looks like we're seeing the dry slot over WV and OH is beginning to fill in. Most sims do not have real precip in the area until 3-4am.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Although that stuff in NW NJ is probably not virga,,,
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
I agree ice predictions rarely materialize as bad as models depict. But this scenario seems like one where it has a chance to verify or come close. I remember couple yrs back the area was caught by surprise by freezing rain and it was accidents everywhere. and then the Frz rain held on way longer than that most ppl thought. Even when most obs were 33 -35 icing was still occurring.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Light snow has begun, expecting about 2" here before it gets washed away... These setups are infuriating, we just had the coldest blast of air of the season and it ultimately is going to waste with the HP sliding off the coast.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Light snow has begun here. Only expecting 1-2 here at the most. I'm simply way too far west. Enjoy the several inches coming LI & CT!
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
23* with Light Snow. Coating on everything but not enough yet to fully cover the grass.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
25* with about a half inch on the ground. Grass almost covered. Currently light-mod snow. Snow filling in nicely over LI
Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:44 am; edited 1 time in total
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
Everything completely covered grass and roads I say a solid inch
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
You can see surface frontogenesis occurring right where the heaviest axis of snow on the radar above just S of LI
Winds at 925 and 850mb already driving in from the south:
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
This is going to be a big test. Recall the write up I had with the 6hrly 850mb freezing line positions. notice the first image is the current 850mb 0*C line along the S boarder of NJ. In 6 hrs models had it up in Massachusetts.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
snow247 wrote:Hey sroc, where did you find the blank map that you use for your snowfall maps? Unfortunately I lost the one I used to use and can't seem to find any others.
Anyway, temp is sitting at 22 here currently. Radar showing lots of virga popping up to the west.
Hey Snow247 check Banter thread
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations
First flakes began falling here at 2:45. Really started coming down last 1/2 hour. approaching 2" already. If it keeps up we will be over 4" by 9.
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