December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by 2004blackwrx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:16 pm

I agree models show it, I just feel it never verifies to be as bad

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:20 pm

Also noting on 00z NAM the temps never get higher than 32-35 IMB, thats still cold enough for snow, but I undetrstand in this cae the 850 temps are important too if not more, but the fact they are that low leads me to believe the rain will freeze on contact.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:21 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:I agree models show it, I just feel it never verifies to be as bad

can be true but id still be careful venturing out. easiest way to tell look at branches, if covered in ice not good.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by 2004blackwrx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:30 pm

safety first always, with ice I always worry about power outages first. I will figure out the roads. Radar shows precip on the way soon

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:35 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:safety first always, with ice I always worry about power outages first. I will figure out the roads. Radar shows precip on the way soon

yeah luckily the high winds (which we may get a warrented warning for sat night into sunday with 50-55mph gusts maybe higher, last nights was a big opps for NWS, I barely heard anything) will not be at the same time as any ice lessening the issues for power. Of course if ice gets above .25 then you gotta worry. I have only once seen the aftermath 1st hand of a ice storm of 1 inches in mountainous area of CT, wow what a mess.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by 2004blackwrx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:37 pm

22°F here every flake will accumulate

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:39 pm

Okay, where does news 12 get their info from? No wonder no on is prepping or talking of anything. meaning in the coating to 2 inch area which has been showing much more on models and pretty much agreed here it will b 2 plus. even my wwa says 3 to 5 with .10 ice. and i think the ice may b low.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by 2004blackwrx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:43 pm

3-6 for me looks good but I only read that as 6 haha.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by 2004blackwrx on Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:52 pm

If I had to guess snow is at Ny Penn border

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by snow247 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:26 am

Snow now reported in Binghamton. Shouldn't be too long now for our western members.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by snow247 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:40 am

I recommend everyone downloads and uses the mPING report app for their phone. Could be very helpful especially during a storm like this.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:54 am

W00T let's do some now casting

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:03 am

Looks like we're seeing the dry slot over WV and OH is beginning to fill in. Most sims do not have real precip in the area until 3-4am.



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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:04 am

Although that stuff in NW NJ is probably not virga,,,


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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by Dtone on Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:08 am

I agree ice predictions rarely materialize as bad as models depict. But this scenario seems like one where it has a chance to verify or come close. I remember couple yrs back the area was caught by surprise by freezing rain and it was accidents everywhere. and then the Frz rain held on way longer than that most ppl thought. Even when most obs were 33 -35 icing was still occurring.

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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:52 am

Nothing here yet
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Dec 17, 2016 2:13 am

Light snow has begun, expecting about 2" here before it gets washed away... These setups are infuriating, we just had the coldest blast of air of the season and it ultimately is going to waste with the HP sliding off the coast.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by snow247 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:35 am

Light snow has begun here. Only expecting 1-2 here at the most. I'm simply way too far west. Enjoy the several inches coming LI & CT!
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by billg315 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:55 am

23* with Light Snow. Coating on everything but not enough yet to fully cover the grass.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:39 am

25* with about a half inch on the ground.  Grass almost covered.  Currently light-mod snow.  Snow filling in nicely over LI



Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:44 am; edited 1 time in total

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:42 am

Everything completely covered grass and roads I say a solid inch
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:44 am



You can see surface frontogenesis occurring right where the heaviest axis of snow on the radar above just S of LI




Winds at 925 and 850mb already driving in from the south:



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:47 am

This is going to be a big test.  Recall the write up I had with the 6hrly 850mb freezing line positions.  notice the first image is the current 850mb 0*C line along the S boarder of NJ.  In 6 hrs models had it up in Massachusetts.  





_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:53 am

snow247 wrote:Hey sroc, where did you find the blank map that you use for your snowfall maps? Unfortunately I lost the one I used to use and can't seem to find any others.

Anyway, temp is sitting at 22 here currently. Radar showing lots of virga popping up to the west.

Hey Snow247 check Banter thread

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:57 am

First flakes began falling here at 2:45. Really started coming down last 1/2 hour. approaching 2" already. If it keeps up we will be over 4" by 9.
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Re: December 17th "Front-End Thump" Storm Discussion & Observations

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