Long Range Thread 13.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:20 pm

Good points Frank, and from what I've noticed, most that are aggressive with -NAO are more east-based. Not the most ideal, but I guess we take what we can get???

I think with time we'll see models back off the aggressiveness, in part for the reasons that you mentioned. Maybe slightly negative for a time I will buy, but probably east-based -NAO.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:25 pm

Sounds good. Thanks.

It is a pattern we would welcome with open arms compared to the +EPO crap we've been in.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Armando Salvadore on Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:34 pm

It's interesting too because i've taken the EPS suite, and took 0z runs beginning on the 18th. I've saved 5 runs over the time span since then, and it has trended stronger with the Greenland ridge, Alaskan ridge/-EPO domain, and weaker with the SE ridge. If you look at the 500mb, it's a bit deceiving because the MSLP clearly shows a cross polar flow right into the mid-section of the country extending towards the East. Verbatim, the TPV drops into the hudson and shows pretty formidable agreement with a low trying to possibly cut up, but redevelopment right off the Carolina's and then makes its way northeastward. Would take anything at this juncture as well! Good to see guidance trend stronger with the -EPO. As for HLB, it depends on its location and intensity, but hey, any blocking is better than none!
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:52 pm

The upper level ridge anomalies are definitely trending stronger. The WPO and EPO are projected by the EPS to approach -5 SD. That type of deviation is going to have dramatic affects on our weather pattern. After January 5th, guidance is keen on coast to coast cold but the west will definitely be coldest. I think we're headed into a pattern that promotes multiple opportunities of light to moderate. It won't take much to get a Godzilla but I'm not Gung ho just yet on saying it's a Godzilla pattern.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:44 am

The MJO activity and wave breaking pattern that kicked off in eastern Asia has truly turned our pattern around as we head into the New Year. While the first five days or so of January will be above normal, the subsequent days and possibly weeks to come should average below. The trick is figuring out if there will be a "block" to prevent storm systems from Cutting to our west. My concern is the core of the cold, or trough, will remain west which keeps the SE Ridge in play for our area. Hope for the emergence of a -NAO. Long range GFS shows how we could stay cold without a -NAO because the phasing of northern and southern stream energies happens east of the Mississippi. 

We'll have a better idea by the weekend. 

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Isotherm on Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:42 am


Not certain what exactly the expectations are for the subsequent pattern, but here are the facts as I see them. December will finish with temperature departures of at least +1 for most of the area, congruous with my outlook. It was an abysmal month for the majority on the coast, as the singular highlight was a light snow event changing to rain. 60 degrees is being achieved today.

The regime heretofore has exemplified a classic La Nina/-AAM background state, even considering unimpressive SSTA signature, which was anticipated due to the propensity for other oscillations to force the mean z500 to date. The brewer dobson circulation continues to rapidly weaken w/ decreasing ozone and contemporaneous intensification of the polar night jet. The MJO signal will propagate eastward at z200 but it is not sufficiently coherent / amplified to overwhelm the interseasonal low frequency forcing which will quickly resume its mean position by January 10th. The mechanism for the poleward ridge weakens within about a week, and we should see retrogression of that feature due to forcing alterations as well as changes in hemispheric torques.

The resultant should be vortex consolidation following a transient technical, ineffective -NAO, with contemporaneous retrogression of the trough, projecting strongly onto the climatological -AAM regime.

Thus, my interpretation is that there will be a transient window of opportunity for about 5-7 days, prior to the resumption/redevelopment of the SE ridge / NW trough tropospheric pattern. January still looks warmer than normal to me. Not a furnace (that wasn't expected), but it will be very difficult to finish below normal. For most on the coast, we will be heading into the second week of January with less than 3 inches of snow on the season. So I truly hope the window produces something, otherwise 50% of meteorological winter will be over with a very ugly picture.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:10 am

Done looking at the LR. It changes every 5 seconds. Not going to be a good winter for 95% of this board plain and simple. Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:25 am

If Central Park can add a couple of more inches of snow between Thursday and Saturday night, which is a distinct possibility at this time, we will end up with near normal snowfall and very close to normal temperature wise. Areas north of 287 in Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley will do even better. The only areas really having a crappy December is Coastal and Southern New Jersey and most of Long Island. Plus we still have our best two months climate wise for snow and they'll be plenty of cold air not that far away unlike last year. I for one cannot complain about December
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:38 am

algae888 wrote:If Central Park can add a couple of more inches of snow between Thursday and Saturday night, which is a distinct possibility at this time, we will end up with near normal snowfall and very close to normal temperature wise. Areas north of 287 in Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley will do even better. The only areas really having a crappy December is Coastal and Southern New Jersey and most of Long Island. Plus we still have our best two months climate wise for snow and they'll be plenty of cold air not that far away unlike last year. I for one cannot complain about December

To all living in these areas this is climatology. nature reverting back to what is.
N EPO/WPO and Neutral to N NAO will drive the pattern.

EPO

WPO

NAO


Syo please post such in banter please as your last post, thanks

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:43 am

Isotherm wrote:
Not certain what exactly the expectations are for the subsequent pattern, but here are the facts as I see them. December will finish with temperature departures of at least +1 for most of the area, congruous with my outlook. It was an abysmal month for the majority on the coast, as the singular highlight was a light snow event changing to rain. 60 degrees is being achieved today.

The regime heretofore has exemplified a classic La Nina/-AAM background state, even considering unimpressive SSTA signature, which was anticipated due to the propensity for other oscillations to force the mean z500 to date. The brewer dobson circulation continues to rapidly weaken w/ decreasing ozone and contemporaneous intensification of the polar night jet. The MJO signal will propagate eastward at z200 but it is not sufficiently coherent / amplified to overwhelm the interseasonal low frequency forcing which will quickly resume its mean position by January 10th. The mechanism for the poleward ridge weakens within about a week, and we should see retrogression of that feature due to forcing alterations as well as changes in hemispheric torques.

The resultant should be vortex consolidation following a transient technical, ineffective -NAO, with contemporaneous retrogression of the trough, projecting strongly onto the climatological -AAM regime.

Thus, my interpretation is that there will be a transient window of opportunity for about 5-7 days, prior to the resumption/redevelopment of the SE ridge / NW trough tropospheric pattern. January still looks warmer than normal to me. Not a furnace (that wasn't expected), but it will be very difficult to finish below normal. For most on the coast, we will be heading into the second week of January with less than 3 inches of snow on the season. So I truly hope the window produces something, otherwise 50% of meteorological winter will be over with a very ugly picture.

Good summary. Thanks Tom.

Let's hope January 5th to 12thish? produced. Just like that small December window we have another one we need to capitalize on.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:11 pm

Cfsv2 Hope it comes to fruition



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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:24 pm

amugs wrote:Cfsv2 Hope it comes to fruition



Oh Fannapoli. I doubt this comes to fruition.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Isotherm on Tue Dec 27, 2016 3:43 pm

Thanks Frank. I agree, hopefully that 5-7 day window can produce something. It is superior to the dec window and climatology is more auspicious as well.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Armando Salvadore on Tue Dec 27, 2016 4:42 pm

Good stuff Isotherm, i know i've seen you elsewhere on other forums! Love reading your input! Today's 12z EPS did drop the arctic hammer for most of the CONUS, similar to what has happened this past mid December. However, there is more ridging in the Alaskan domain in conjunction with sort of an east based -NAO ridge verbatim. TPV lobe drops down, near the Hudson Bay. That is definitely the window that we'll look to see if anything can produce. Still, not necessarily a pattern ripe for amplified coastal's, as clearly there is no +PNA being depicted and fits the background state, but at this juncture, anything we'd take. Interesting first 1/3 of the month appears active with a few chances, we'll see what happens!
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:07 pm

Further inspection of the talked about pattern change around the 5th suggests this could be pretty short lived.



EURO 50hPa geopotential heights shows strong ridging over Greenland. This is a decent Wave 1 attack of the middle to lower levels of the PV over the Atlantic likely triggered by a Mountain Torque event in East Asia.



But notice up in 10hPa the ridging is not as impressive. Wave 1 warming maps does not show enough geopotential heat flux entering the upper levels of the Stratosphere, suggesting the Strat PV is either too strong and is able to fight off the warming or the warming event itself is not powerful enough.



By Day 10, the EURO breaks down the Wave 1 warming and the PV re-consolidates over the North Pole.



Notice how strong 1hPa mean zonal winds are and how 30hPa heat flux is forecasted to weaken. 10hPa mean zonal winds are also expected to stay strong in the weeks to come.

In my opinion, this means the upcoming negative NAO models are advertising will either be underwhelming or a transient ridge that sets up S&E of Greenland. Given the low AAM state (which signals La Nina background state pattern) and the mediocre look in the Stratosphere, I feel the pattern change around the 5th will only last 5-6 days. Then the pattern is at risk of reverting back to what we're used too. +NAO/+AO/-PNA. Even if the EPO stays negative, which is possible, I don't think it will be enough to keep the SE Ridge from flexing. If anything, it will favor continued storm tracks to our west.

Like I said during the small stretch of cold weather in December, we have to capitalize with this small window in January before it gets warm again. Hopefully there is a storm to track between January 5th-12th. Models are definitely hinting at one in that time frame. We'll see!

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:26 pm





The GEFS and GFS already show the north Atlantic ridging breaking down beginning week 2 of January.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:13 am

This was mentioned on another forum but about a week or so ago, someone mentioned that the pattern seems to have a resemblance to the 2007-08 winter.  That winter had 11.9" of snow, 2.9" which fell in December.  January did not any measurable snowfall for only the third time in CPK's recorded history (the others being 1890 and 1933)  February had two decent of measurable snow events, one of them being on the 22nd which featured good front end thump snow (CPK got 6" from it, I got around 8-10").  However, when you look at all four one inch plus snowfall events (12/2/07, 12/16/07, 2/12/08, 2/22/08) all of them had a changeover to rain and/or had a rapid warmup following the snow.  Looking at the teleconnections from that time, conditions were unfavorable for blocking to contain the cold.  Now in the central and western US, it was an active winter, not in the coastal NY/Mid-Atlantic region though.

2007-08 was a La Nina winter coming off an El Nino.  While this may not necessarily be a La Nina, the drop off from last year is something to be considered.  And if the conditions in the equatorial Pacific were to qualify as a La Nina, if anything, it is west based, not necessarily favorable for snowstorms for us on the coast:



Even if the -NAO, -AO, and/or -EPO develop, the -PNA is why I am skeptical of any full pattern change anytime soon.  While the 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters were driven by the -EPO, we had a neutral to positive PNA and when the PNA was negative, we were locked into the cold air which was not going to budge.

Personally, if I don't see any changes to the pattern, I may end up taking a break from the forum as I have things going on in my personal life.  Of course, that could change if snowstorm threats do loom.  I say that because last August, I mentioned I wouldn't be posting much, and then Hurricane Hermine happened.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jrollins628 on Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:51 am

Math23x7 wrote:This was mentioned on another forum but about a week or so ago, someone mentioned that the pattern seems to have a resemblance to the 2007-08 winter.  That winter had 11.9" of snow, 2.9" which fell in December.  January did not any measurable snowfall for only the third time in CPK's recorded history (the others being 1890 and 1933)  February had two decent of measurable snow events, one of them being on the 22nd which featured good front end thump snow (CPK got 6" from it, I got around 8-10").  However, when you look at all four one inch plus snowfall events (12/2/07, 12/16/07, 2/12/08, 2/22/08) all of them had a changeover to rain and/or had a rapid warmup following the snow.  Looking at the teleconnections from that time, conditions were unfavorable for blocking to contain the cold.  Now in the central and western US, it was an active winter, not in the coastal NY/Mid-Atlantic region though.

2007-08 was a La Nina winter coming off an El Nino.  While this may not necessarily be a La Nina, the drop off from last year is something to be considered.  And if the conditions in the equatorial Pacific were to qualify as a La Nina, if anything, it is west based, not necessarily favorable for snowstorms for us on the coast:



Even if the -NAO, -AO, and/or -EPO develop, the -PNA is why I am skeptical of any full pattern change anytime soon.  While the 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters were driven by the -EPO, we had a neutral to positive PNA and when the PNA was negative, we were locked into the cold air which was not going to budge.

Personally, if I don't see any changes to the pattern, I may end up taking a break from the forum as I have things going on in my personal life.  Of course, that could change if snowstorm threats do loom.  I say that because last August, I mentioned I wouldn't be posting much, and then Hurricane Hermine happened.

Ive been saying 2007-2008 winter as well a chilly but dry December in Philly, a mild January, and the hits did not come until February and those were only two storms in two weeks, Chicago did great that winter i remember that. Its sad but hope we get at least one big storm if not it could be 2007-2008 again and  if that's the case hopefully February will produce.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:09 am

this setup is where a -pna can help. very - epo and less hostile nao . if the nao tanks probably cold and dry. models all over the place jan 5th onward with cutters and suppressed systems but with s/e ridge still close by suppression unlikely...

will be a real kick in the b...s if north Carolina gets snow and we end up cold and dry. do not think that will happen but who knows. like our chances in this time frame.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Isotherm on Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:30 am

Armando - thanks for the kind words. I am relatively new at Frank's board but I look forward to more discussions with you as well. There are many talented individuals here. Good post to both you and Frank. We're in virtual agreement here, unfortunately. As expected the 00z EPS removed the genuine neg NAO in the longer term. As Frank correctly noted, other forcing mechanisms will destructively interfere with blocking maintenance. Frank, I think the upcoming NATL wave break may have a more direct role in forcing the transient tropospheric/lower stratospheric geopotential height rises.

Hopefully we get an arctic wave to develop post the 5th. Doesn't look like a MECS pattern to me but I think we would all gladly take a moderate event at this point.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:57 am

Even if the -NAO, -AO, and/or -EPO develop, the -PNA is why I am skeptical of any full pattern change anytime soon. While the 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters were driven by the -EPO, we had a neutral to positive PNA and when the PNA was negative, we were locked into the cold air which was not going to budge.

Personally, if I don't see any changes to the pattern, I may end up taking a break from the forum as I have things going on in my personal life. Of course, that could change if snowstorm threats do loom. I say that because last August, I mentioned I wouldn't be posting much, and then Hurricane Hermine happened.


Mike - what do you mean by a full pattern change - wall to wall snow and cold? That has occurred very few times here in my lifetime that I can recall - last one being 2014-15, 84-85, 76-77 and 77-78, 93-94 and king 95-96 but even those had a some mild stretches
A N PNA is not going to over ride or diminish the pattern that is setting up for the 5th through 12th time frame - we will be BN temps wise and have a couple of chances of snow - one pro forecaster thinks we go from the 5th to 25th and this gent has been excellent in his calls for a long time now.
Here is the Euro EPS on three indicies:

NAO


WPO

EPO


The 6 Z GEFS at the 12th have a N AO and NAO by 1.5 SD, Neutral EPO and N WPO 3SD
So my point being that we have a pattern change incoming and it will lock in for a good week 5th to the 12th and after that we see. Late Jan through late February in talking with Jim Witt again he said planetary alignment is going to send us into the freezer with an active STJ - way below normal temp and way above normal snowfall,

Also the poleward ridge and active pac extension of wave breaking vorts of of eastern asia will help pump the WPO and EPO. I would like to see teh EPO a bit more east but beggars can't be choosers.

Lastly teh Japan East Coast Storm theory will be in effect - 10-15 days after Japan sees a storm swing in of the Pac the east coast MAY see a storm 10-15 days later - brings us to the 7th -10th time frame - ring a bell?? 96 Redux 7-8th but my feeling is again Sunday to Mon 8-9th (at least I am praying for so we miss school HAHAHA!) My buddy from LSC was taught this from one his profs.


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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Armando Salvadore on Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:58 pm

Great post Frank, good information! Isotherm - you're very welcome, looking forward to future discussions! Regarding the 12z runs, it appears guidance breaks down the ridging near Greenland, and that really isn't a news breaker. For one, as Isotherm alluded too, it's an Anticyclonic wave breaking event that'll yield a transient -NAO (more east based). 12Z GEFS is not that bad of a look for ~ 5th-10th, and its been mentioned a few times thus far for wintry opportunities. With a -EPO developing, we'll still being seeing a lag effect as toughness resumes over the Aleutians and continued pacific influence, however, the trough retrogrades and is replaced by a -WPO. It's common in WQBO/-ENSO's for there to be Aleutian ridging. Despite what z500mb may show, we'll still see MSLP anomalies push the baroclinic zone and bleed east. It's also common for there to be a stronger push of arctic intrusions in WQBO's (la nina bgd) against the SE ridge relative to EQBO's. Not all will be lost since we'll continue to see an extended -EPO/-WPO manifesting arctic air into the CONUS against the ridge, thus giving wintry chances along the way.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 28, 2016 2:13 pm

Heading that we could see a great stretch of winter weather jan 6 through Jan 15 the Euro is showing the negative nao in every run
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 28, 2016 2:40 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Heading that we could see a great stretch of winter weather jan 6 through Jan 15 the Euro is showing the negative nao in every run

Yes, I've been saying the time frame after the 5th offers real potential for a snowstorm.

Now let's hope it produced. -EPO/-AO pseudo -NAO should give us something.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:38 pm

Momma mia this is cold for January let's hopen it produces

EPS holds the N NAO through its run

Nice pattern look here

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

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