Long Range Thread 13.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:12 pm

The EPS has the NAO at +5 SD.

What bull.

This means we need to rely on perfectly times phasing or 50/50 Low placement to get a big storm for our area. Makes things a bit more difficult, but it's happened many times before.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by devsman on Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:46 am

KNow its a long ways away but I love the look of the GFS on Feb 2nd with that possible phase. Is that what "we" mean my a miller b? Northern stream energy phasing with stj?
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:51 am

devsman wrote:KNow its a long ways away but I love the look of the GFS on Feb 2nd with that possible phase. Is that what "we" mean my a miller b? Northern stream energy phasing with stj?

That would be a classic Miller A.

The 06z GFS brought tears to my eyes. SO EXCITED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by devsman on Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:46 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
devsman wrote:KNow its a long ways away but I love the look of the GFS on Feb 2nd with that possible phase. Is that what "we" mean my a miller b? Northern stream energy phasing with stj?

That would be a classic Miller A.

The 06z GFS brought tears to my eyes. SO EXCITED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks. Always confuse those. Those phases always get my blood rushing. Now we wait and pray.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:09 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
devsman wrote:KNow its a long ways away but I love the look of the GFS on Feb 2nd with that possible phase. Is that what "we" mean my a miller b? Northern stream energy phasing with stj?

That would be a classic Miller A.

The 06z GFS brought tears to my eyes. SO EXCITED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Please post a map in banter. We need eye candy. Shocked
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:24 pm

I counted between 4 and 6 snowstorms opportunities on the GFS Ensembles beginning January 27th.

MOG

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:37 pm

Unbelievable.


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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by amugs on Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:40 pm

Frank holy crap ×2 this is falling off the cliff 10hPa going nuetral? Thinking they go easterly ?


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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:43 pm

amugs wrote:Frank holy crap ×2 this is falling off the cliff 10hPa going nuetral? Thinking they go easterly ?


Check my updated post in the other thread regarding the Strat

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:24 pm

1/27-1/28 looks locked and loaded
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Armando Salvadore on Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:07 pm

12z GFS is bullish on that u-wind reversal above 50mb. This is current...




This is in the 11-15....



12Z GEFS backs it up with more wave 1 warming as that trough over Europe and Scandinavian ridge implodes even more. However, this still has to work its way down into 50mb before transitioning into the lower levels and then a reflection of a surface. Still, this is enough to make it interesting for the troposphere coupling POSSIBLY come mid Feb. Regardless, what has been discussed for some time now favors a wintry and cold regime beginning next weekend.








Here is your -EPO support right here as -AAM anomalies manifest over the tropics.


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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:26 am

I'm heAring some say at end of month not looking good with a extremely positive nao and ao can anyone give their input
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by algae888 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:08 pm

Long-range looks rather boring for the foreseeable future as we will be dealing with mostly Northern stream systems maybe we can get a Miller B but you know how those go
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by algae888 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:25 pm

Ensambles a breaking down the pattern change by February 4th with the ridge popping back up in the east. Not good sign
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Snow88 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:44 pm

algae888 wrote:Ensambles a breaking down the pattern  change by February 4th with the ridge popping back up in the east. Not good sign

What ensembles? I don't see any ridge on the ensembles.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by algae888 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:08 pm

Snow88 wrote:
algae888 wrote:Ensambles a breaking down the pattern  change by February 4th with the ridge popping back up in the east. Not good sign

What ensembles? I don't see any ridge on the ensembles.
Snow Heights are rising in the East the trough is now on the Canadian border and the PNA Ridge is now retrograding back towards the aleutians not a good sign
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:17 pm

That is not a ridge over the east on the 4th. With positive anomalies still dominating the EPO/WPO domains, and the AO transitioning into a negative phase, we'll remain cold.





Also, don't forget the changes we're seeing at the Stratosphere will not transcend down to the Trop until 2 weeks later. So I think there could be a brief 3-5 day period of warmer than normal days in after February 5th, but then a second pattern change should happen close to the middle of the month.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:19 pm

The 27th to 4th time frame is expected to be below to much below normal. I remain confident there will be a storm event to track within that time frame.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:28 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The 27th to 4th time frame is expected to be below to much below normal. I remain confident there will be a storm event to track within that time frame.

Normal being NYC highs in the upper 30's this time of year and lows in the 26-27 range. I'm only seeing normal to above normal on my trusty weather channel app. For that time period, not a single below normal forget about much below. I will however defer to you and hope as usually happens you know something they don't.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:45 pm

I remain confident in a snowstorm threatening our area between the 27th and 5th. I also feel there may be a brief relaxation in the colder pattern until the affects of the Wave 1 displacement of the Strat PV transcend down to the Trop. This relaxation is likely to come after the 5th to about the 9th-10th.

They key will be the AO. I expect it to go negative at some point after the 4th or 5th. This will lock the Trop PV over central/eastern Canada. As long as the Wave 1 event comes to fruition, which it looks like it will, we should see a period of -WPO/-EPO/-AO conditions. The magnitude of the Wave 1 event is a big deal too. Today, models don't seem as robust with it which means warmer temperatures halt at 10hPa instead of penetrating to 30-50hPa. That's a negative trend I hope is a blip. One reason why models could be backing off is the MJO wave may die off sooner than anticipated. We'll see, can't go off of data for one day.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:48 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The 27th to 4th time frame is expected to be below to much below normal. I remain confident there will be a storm event to track within that time frame.

Normal being NYC highs in the upper 30's this time of year and lows in the 26-27 range. I'm only seeing normal to above normal on my trusty weather channel app. For that time period, not a single below normal forget about much below. I will however defer to you and hope as usually happens you know something they don't.

Yea, actually next weekend doesn't look bad at all. It'll get near nornal again but not very much below. 29th is probably a better date to set for below normal temps to return.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:51 pm

Is there still a chance that during that time frame it will be a godzilla or higher?
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Is there still a chance that during that time frame it will be a godzilla or higher?

Yes, but the absence of blocking makes it tougher.

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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:00 pm

I know it's only 1 day of posts, but I'm not liking what I'm reading today at all.Sad Sad Date of pattern change might be pushed back......maybe a warming trend for4-5 days in early Feb.....Talk of storm for 27th-28th time frame is gone, when it was once a supposed "lock"

Hopefully this is only a blip. because with all the hype about the 27th going forward, coming on the heels of missing out on an epic blizzard with this Monday's monster would be crushing to say the least!
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Isotherm on Sat Jan 21, 2017 1:16 pm

Pattern update:


The anticipated wave-1 increase via the tropospheric precursor pattern and concomitant MJO propagation support has led to an enhanced convergence of energy at the vortex, resulting in sufficient forcing to temporarily displace the stratospheric vortex from the center of the pole. The vortex will be pushed toward Greenland at 50-10hpa by D 10. However, after which, wave-1 convergence begins to decline, and with no follow-up wave-2 assault, and so the resultant outcome may be a near miss; namely, the reduction of zonal winds at 60N/10hpa to weakly positive levels (no reversal). Right now, it appears the wave driving will be sufficient to induce a mean zonal wind reversal at the top of the atmosphere (1hpa), but not further down. Even in the case that zonal winds are temporarily reversed at 10hpa, there are a couple of significant issues: 1) This potential displacement event will likely not be one which results in the subsequent destruction of the vortex, but rather, a rapid reconsolidation and intensification of the PNJ; and, 2) Even if a SSW event were to occur, based upon my research, this would likely be an ineffectively propagating SSW event. In other words, the significant warming at the upper levels of the atmosphere will not induce meaningful alterations of the z500 northern annular mode.

What the near miss/borderline displacement will effectuate is a weaker stratospheric vortex, making it more susceptible to future assaults. The evolution of the tropospheric pattern is such that wave-2 should begin to increase by day 10, with potentially a robust spike by 2/10. Given an expected weaker vortex, a potent wave-2 attack could possibly induce a more meaningful stratospheric reversal toward mid February. However, of course, at that point, we are approaching late winter, and the effect of stratospheric warming events tends to be less dramatic. But there are examples in the data w/ analogous background conditions to this year which featured mid/late Feb SSW events. And I currently favor late winter (later in Feb into March) for the best opportunity for a genuine negative AO pattern in the troposphere. However, this is only one possibility. If the wave driving doesn’t progress, we could run the early February regime through March.
Now, what is the early February regime? The MJO aided ephemeral alterations with PNA spike and concomitant downstream trough in the East will rapidly transition into a retracted jet / Aleutian ridge / NW US trough pattern by early February – classic La Nina regime.

There will be a transient window 1/28-2/3 for a deep coastal storm on the east coast which could produce snow, when the PNA is conducive. If we do not capitalize on that period, all hope is not lost. I think poleward ridging will develop in the Aleutians given tropical forcing progression and AAM/GWO tendencies. This will force the return of a NW US trough, but if there’s sufficient geopotential height rises extending into the Arctic and/or northeast Greenland from the Scandinavian side, the baroclinic gradient would be sufficiently suppressed to permit a wintry event down to our latitude. If there’s insufficient extension of the poleward ridge, the pattern will be similar to December with February climatology: a snowier pattern for much of New England but not necessarily that good from coastal SNE southward. Overall, Feb 1-15 looks normal to warmer than normal, but not blowtorch. There will be possibilities of snow, but it isn’t a great looking winter pattern. I do believe we will achieve at least one moderate or greater snow event in the 1/28-2/12 period.

Beyond that time, the determinants of a blocky pattern will be contingent upon MJO aid, stratosphere, and other factors. At this point, I would lean toward a continuation of the largely +AO/NAO regime with an initial +PNA transient, leading toward a –EPO/-PNA for most of the first half of February. The weakened state of the stratospheric vortex should permit the neutralization of geopotential heights in the Arctic such that the upcoming few weeks is more favorable than the winter thus far for the possibility of snow. It will favor the Lakes, New England and interior however.

A resurgence of wave-2 in early-mid February could eventually lead to genuine AO/NAO pattern for later Feb-March but that is still highly speculative, and I am not willing to attach significant confidence to the idea just yet.

In sum: it appears to be the type of pattern which will gradually inch us close to my seasonal numbers of 20-26" for NYC. It's not a great pattern for NYC but it could be occasionally "serviceable" with opportunities, given February climatology and sufficient poleward ridging. That's the type of regime which will continue to favor the northern tier / New England. Temperature wise, it looks near normal to above at times at our latitude following the cold shot.
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