Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:You also used the ECMWF operational vs. GEFS in that MJO comparison. EPS looks a little better with more spread.

Do you know where I can find EPS MJO?

On this page, I circled the EPS mean:



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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's my video for those interested:

Always interested in very detailed content.. very well done Ray - with the easterlies in the 850hPa wind anomaly vectors in the location that they are would also suggest a weakening Niña also (correct me if I'm wrong) ~ and I know that wasn't the point of your video, but I think that should lead to more weakening of La Niña toward neutral. What impact, if any, do you see that having on the intra-seasonal pattern with respect to MJO if any at all?
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's my video for those interested:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYWkowN1ZnUVJRT0E/view?usp=sharing

Also, the image below is the missing anomaly chart that I referenced. Note how there was a tendency for troughing develop over northwestern North America (evidenced by the blue colors/lower than normal 500 hPa height anomalies) and then sink into the western U.S., with deep troughing centered just offshore of New England. Granted, we had blocking then, so the tendency for the troughs entering the northeastern U.S. to deepen could be attributable to that, since troughs and ridges like to juxtapose each other in the longitudinal sense, but I still think that sort of setup is on the table for the period after Christmas ESPECIALLY if the MJO is substantially active in Phase 5/6 before propagating eastward from there.



Very good video beyond my Intel
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:49 pm

Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Here's my video for those interested:

Always interested in very detailed content.. very well done Ray - with the easterlies in the 850hPa wind anomaly vectors in the location that they are would also suggest a weakening Niña also (correct me if I'm wrong) ~ and I know that wasn't the point of your video, but I think that should lead to more weakening of La Niña toward neutral. What impact, if any, do you see that having on the intra-seasonal pattern with respect to MJO if any at all?

Thanks! I honestly don't think they will have much influence on the La Niña state, if any at all. The anomalies associated with the Rossby wave are both too "localized" and too transient to really have a statiscally significant impact. The SOI flux, from which the state of ENSO is essentially derived, has a much larger background influence that overwhelms tropical wave modes like Rossby waves, as that tropical state encompasses the entire tropical Pacific. So, with the SOI spike, especially if it persists for several days before relaxing (which bears watching) a surge in the short term strength of La Niña, I think, would be more likely, since the spike represents anomalous low pressure near Australia, high pressure in the central tropical Pacific (Tahiti), and an anomalous easterly background wind which favors the further upwelling of waters and westward motion of the cooler water further west in the tropical Pacifc.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:52 pm

Thanks Skins! The take away is basically that there's a chance that instead of a full blown torch for the next couple of weeks, or few weeks, once we get beyond Christmas and IF the MJO can emerge into Phases 5/6 with decent strength and remain in an active state, we may see a pattern evolve where we see troughing/near-slightly below normal temperatures in the time-average here in the Northeast. That's highly reliant upon the activity of the MJO, though.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:The SOI flux, from which the state of ENSO is essentially derived, has a much larger background influence that overwhelms tropical wave modes like Rossby waves, as that tropical state encompasses the entire tropical Pacific

Admittedly, the relationship between the Rossby waves and the SOI flux is something I am weak on. I understand the SOI and how it works with pressure differences between Darwin and Tahiti, but never made the connection to Rossby waves that way. That makes perfect sense.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:18 pm

Waiting to see Frank's thoughts on long range. Rb gives us hope and that the warm up me not be ectreme
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:47 pm

Was going to write a blog tonight about the long range but will hold off until tomorrow so I can see another night worth of MJO data. Current observations have the MJO on the boarder between the COD and phase 6. Meanwhile, most models have it forecasted dead center of the COD so clearly there is a huge disconnect. How real is this amplification? I think it's real, but is it strong enough? Will this wave not only propagate east but strengthen as it does so? Or will it do an about face and remain in the COD? Low AAM forecasts are not encouraging either but a strong MJO pulse should trend the AAM to positive. Our winter could be decided on this MJO event because I'm not sure what else could deliver a SSWE, especially when the Strat PV just keeps trending colder. 

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's my video for those interested:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYWkowN1ZnUVJRT0E/view?usp=sharing

Also, the image below is the missing anomaly chart that I referenced. Note how there was a tendency for troughing develop over northwestern North America (evidenced by the blue colors/lower than normal 500 hPa height anomalies) and then sink into the western U.S., with deep troughing centered just offshore of New England. Granted, we had blocking then, so the tendency for the troughs entering the northeastern U.S. to deepen could be attributable to that, since troughs and ridges like to juxtapose each other in the longitudinal sense, but I still think that sort of setup is on the table for the period after Christmas ESPECIALLY if the MJO is substantially active in Phase 5/6 before propagating eastward from there.



Great presentation. Excellent job explaining what we're seeing over the Pacific. I honestly don't think we'll torch. Like I've said before, there will be periods of above normal ahead of cold fronts then below normal as the FROPA passes. So overall we'll stay near nornal. That said, it's still not a snowy pattern unless this MJO phenomena comes to fruition.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:57 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here's my video for those interested:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYWkowN1ZnUVJRT0E/view?usp=sharing

Also, the image below is the missing anomaly chart that I referenced. Note how there was a tendency for troughing develop over northwestern North America (evidenced by the blue colors/lower than normal 500 hPa height anomalies) and then sink into the western U.S., with deep troughing centered just offshore of New England. Granted, we had blocking then, so the tendency for the troughs entering the northeastern U.S. to deepen could be attributable to that, since troughs and ridges like to juxtapose each other in the longitudinal sense, but I still think that sort of setup is on the table for the period after Christmas ESPECIALLY if the MJO is substantially active in Phase 5/6 before propagating eastward from there.




So I just had an hours worth of work erased and I want to punch my computer.  So here is the abbreviated version of what I wanted to write:   Brick

Ray Great video.  I agree that temps will likely not be a torch, esp in the means, but I don't think we need to rely on the MJO as strongly as you may have suggested.  We are at the tail end of several arctic frontal passages and arctic air masses invading the lower latitudes.  Why?  Because of the highly anomalous Aleutian ridge in the WPO region.  (-WPO).  By about Dec 6th the Aleutian ridge was almost at its peak and the WPO was most negative.  We also had ridging in the Scandinavia region that was not quite as strong but extended into the N latitudes.  As you can see by the 500mb chart below this led to a pinching off of arctic air masses that dove southward into the lower latitudes compliment of a cross polar flow.  




By Dec 10th the Arctic air mass that initially invaded the Western Conus had arrived into the east.




But why did the Aleutian ridge go up in the first place?  It wasn't the MJO.  The MJO was stuck in the COD from about Nov 28th on through Dec.  It still hasn't come out yet.



So if it wasn't the MJO then what was it.  I believe it was the horizontal SSTA configuration.  Once the screaming Pac jet quieted down the ridge went up.  I believe it is possible that throughout much of the winter so long as we have this SSTA configuration and there aren't any other strong external influences, like the MJO or stratosphere, the re-establishment with periods of reloads of tis poleward Aleutian ridging could be self sustaining.  Not too dissimilar to the way the EPO ridging went up due to the SSTA in the latter half of the 2013/2014 winter that drove the cold into the conus.  Now I'm not saying we will have that kind of persistence in the ridging or the intensity of the cold however, but the persistence of the Aleutian ridge due to this SSTA configuration is where I draw the analogy.  




Well to me it looks like another Aleutian ridge, albeit maybe not as strong, as well as Scandinavian ridging once again develops by about the 10day mark.   Lets look at the last couple of EPS runs.  Here are last nights 00z followed by todays 12z both valid for 00z Dec 30th.




You can clearly see the ridging developing both near the Aleutians as well as on the opposite side of the N hemi near Scandinavia.  Notice how on the 12 Z there is even more ridging pole ward relative to 00z.  This is not on just two runs however, there have been multiple runs that trend with a stronger Aleutian ridge on both EPS and GEFS.  This is where I am in complete agreement with Ray regarding the troughing in the west.  Now because this is the mean trough and ridge, aka the avg of all the individual ensemble members, the wavelengths will look longer.  Put another way the ridge would appear broader on a LR ensemble Mean run.  However as we get in closer in time, and the avg of the individual members gets closer together as they converge on the soln, the wavelength will shorten.  The result of this would be to have a sharper Aleutian ridge, which in turn pulls the trough back just off the West coast of N CONUS/Canada and a second piece breaks off and digs into the eastern half of the country.  This is what Ray was illustrating in his video.  

Looking back at the image above you can already see how the trough in the center of the country on 12z today is deeper and further east relative to the prev run.  As long as we see these two ridge complexes cont to trend stronger, Aleutian ridge and Scandanaian ridge, in the LR the better likelihood that we see cold airmasses even things out if not keep things slight below normal once we get past the 24th-28th time frame.  

Same thing looks to be trending beyond this as well.  Look at the EPS again 00z vs 12z both valid for 00z Jan 3rd

You can see this far out the mean Aleutian ridge on the 00z, depicted by the thin circle, is spread out real wide and there is a trough in the west which results in the ridge look in the SE.  However, as this time frame get closer I hope to see the Aleutian ridge to sharpen, Thick black circle, which opens the lane for the ridge in the west to back off the coast, and a piece to break off head east and dig into the eastern half of the conus.  



Low and behold the 12 z run shows that very thing.  It shows the ridge trending stronger pole ward, and sharper; therefore, a piece of the trough backs off the coast and it looks like a second piece is ready to dig into the eastern half of the CONUS.



Now the question is will this pattern lead to snow?  Well I def think its possible that IF, and that's a big IF
, things trend the way I am projecting above then maybe we can see similar type over running events that we have seen thus far if the polar frontal boundaries get far enough south and we don't get strong reflexive flexing of the SE ridge like Frank has alluded to.  This is possible.   Also the MJO is a wild card.  If it does in fact end up a stronger pulse than is forecasted like Ray pointed out in his video then things may change for better or worse depending on the phase. The SOI Ray pointed out in the video may also be another wild card if it persists strongly positive for several days.  Today was only the first day it went to strongly positive.  Before today it has pretty much been between -5 and +5 (Neutral ENSO) for like a month.  The longer it stays strong in one direction or another relative to the current neutral base state the more likely it is to influence the pattern in some way shape or form.  Remember we are discussing the LR, and after all this is the long range and Lord know things change.  

We Track!  What a Face


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:21 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Dec 11th = coating
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:02 pm

Fascinating as always.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:09 pm

Good stuff. I would add that AAM values were positive in mid to late November, the time period the WPO went negative. We saw a burst of westerly winds over the Dateline, and increased EPV feedbacking into the Stratosphere. The volatile QBO and weak mean zonal winds at the middle latitudes kept the PV in a weak and purturbed state.Draw your attention to Thanksgiving time frame on the next two images to better understand what I just explained.




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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by docstox12 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 6:11 am

What Doc describes (even a Meteorologic challenged person like my self can somewhat understand) appears to be a pattern setting up that has given us here in the HV since late November cold, a brief mild spell or two and continual small to moderate snow events.Lets see how it develops during the month of January.Winter only starts today ,LOTS of winter weather to come.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:38 am

Scott, fantastic discussion (as usual)!! Yet again our analyses seem to compliment each other's perfectly without being planned hahaha

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:38 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Good stuff. I would add that AAM values were positive in mid to late November, the time period the WPO went negative. We saw a burst of westerly winds over the Dateline, and increased EPV feedbacking into the Stratosphere. The volatile QBO and weak mean zonal winds at the middle latitudes kept the PV in a weak and purturbed state.Draw your attention to Thanksgiving time frame on the next two images to better understand what I just explained.




Admittedly I am still learning about the AAM and its larger scale influences on the atmosphere. Do you have a link with its current data and forecasts? As I understand it there are 4 geneal phases. A positive state, a negative state and then two transitory states, moving towards negative and moving towards positive, all of which have different general effects on the big picture. If you believe J Cohen it was the intense Oct Siberian snow growth combined with the late season Tropical system that sat in the N Atlantic and released massive amounts of latent heat that led to the initial intense weakening of the Srat PV, but I see what you are saying regarding the heat flux around Thanksgiving which likely led to continued perturbation of the PV. Now I'm not sure if when you said "The volatile QBO and weak mean zonal winds at the middle latitudes kept the PV in a weak and perturbed state" you meant the trop PV or the Strat PV or both, but this is likely true. As I understand it; however, the westerly QBO, if anything, should have argued for a quicker return to the colder and stronger state that we appear to be heading into as we approach the new year. Anyway interesting to see how all of the stuff we are discussing begins to shake out as we head into the new year. Great convo.

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Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:42 am

I should also now add that today marks two days of the SOI spike, as today's contribution to the base state is +20.60. Shall we keep it going for three?? I'm also VERY interested to see today's MJO forecasts once they update later today.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:44 am

rb924119 wrote:I should also now add that today marks two days of the SOI spike, as today's contribution to the base state is +20.60. Shall we keep it going for three?? I'm also VERY interested to see today's MJO forecasts once they update later today.

Ensembles hinting at a PNA spike around New Years.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:11 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I should also now add that today marks two days of the SOI spike, as today's contribution to the base state is +20.60. Shall we keep it going for three?? I'm also VERY interested to see today's MJO forecasts once they update later today.

Ensembles hinting at a PNA spike around New Years.

Anddddddd like clockwork as we head toward the day 10 forecast the models seemingly "out of nowhere" see a sudden shortening of wavelengths.........god do I love having learned how spot seasonal trends from you guys! Haha MUCHO GUSTO!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:17 am

I was reading this morning that the arctic with low sea ice is now beginning to freeze over rapidly. the speculation is when this happens it releases latent heat into the atmosphere. a) is this true? and b) will this help in causing any attacks on the PV?
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:33 am

algae888 wrote:I was reading this morning that the arctic with low sea ice is now beginning to freeze over rapidly. the speculation is when this happens it releases latent heat into the atmosphere. a) is this true? and b) will this help in causing any attacks on the PV?

No.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:41 am

I think this may be more tropical forcing result than thought, and I'll continue with that idea until the bull bucks me. I don't have recent days of evolution to compare saved, and in the interests of time, you'll have to take my word for it.

But I do think models are responding in the next 7-8 days to a phase 5-6 alignment which is producing the high values of the SOI, like Ray talked about in the video. This supports the La Niña look with a strong Southeast ridge. But this is also setting up for a big drop of the SOI, which would lead to an amplification to the pattern in the day 11-15. The key to this is MJO continuing to propagate eastward, as most ensemble guidance shows.

The -EPO showing up at the end of the month is mostly a result of tropical forcing propagating eastward in this case. Beyond D10 I've noted we'd see some significant changes once the models picked up on the forcing, and it is happening:



EPS has the same result here same time frame, and this is the CONUS look:




Verbatim, models don't sustain this feature long, but again, this 11-15 day time frame is in flux yet, and changing run to run. So in other words, what it shows now might not be what it shows in a few days. It will come down to two things IMO:

1) The tropical forcing continues move forward/eastward as expected. On the downside, strong PV near Baffin Island prevents ridging into Greenland. This keeps the SE ridge intact and prevents the cold from diving into most of the Eastern US in the nearer term and midterm. If models trend towards higher heights across the Arctic, this should allow for a southward displacement of the PV, suppressing the SE ridge. The shift shown now and recent -EPO signal toward the end of the month is a result of the favorable eastward propagating forcing IMO. That would lead to the 10-15 day period being colder across the entirety of the northern tier, not just the western US the first week of January if the shift isn't temporary.

2) If models back off on the tropical forcing shift, then this pattern shift could be temporary. This is what is shown right now on the ensembles, but I am not convinced that it is right or temporary. Right now guidance is strong on shifting the main forcing away from the Maritime Continent, so the trends are there for a shift to more favorable teleconnections, namely AO, EPO, WPO.

So right now it's wait and see.... but at least the end of this month looks much better.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:06 am

Agree entirely. Based off CHI maps and current observations of the MJO there is phase 6 activity reshuffling the north Pacific pattern. Now it's a matter of determining how much staying power this MJO pulse has. Personally, I think the wave is too weak because I'm not seeing signs of increased WAF into the Strat. The westerly QBO winds are still too strong. So I'm leaning on your #2 Bobby, a transient period around New Years, but we'll see what happens. Next 2 day MJO forecasts are critical.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:00 am

I also hear a lot from a LOT of people in our social media avenues "when will the pattern change to consistent cold and snowy and stay that way?"

I think people were misguided on how this type of Winter was projected to play out. We are likely not 2013-2014 cold for months on end ~ in fact, the ups and downs will be more typical of how this entire Winter goes. Slightly above, cold shot, slightly above, cold shot... and I don't see that changing much. Perhaps a week or so on either side of the fence at a time, but nothing overly prolonged. It comes down to taking advantage of those cold shots and hoping they produce. Should be a back and forth fight between SE ridge and PV all winter, and blocking can't get established either with the ++QBO and strong PV. Until something changes in that regard, don't see the pattern really locking in one way or the other.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:29 am

New update:


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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Snow88 on Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:36 pm

Wow

Last week they had the MJO staying in the COD

This is most likely playing tricks with the models. The models are most likely getting colder because of the MJO.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

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