Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:43 am

rb924119 wrote:Nice discussion, Scott! I don't disagree that the Rex block is a good thing: It will definitely get cold into the east. I'm just saying look at how expansive the positive height anomalies are in the west because of it; the ridge cannot sharpen because of the bowling ball beneath it. As a result, the height gradient becomes very tight over the southeastern CONUS because of the confluence created by the presence of the cutoff low beneath the ridge and trough to the east. In my opinion, that would not allow any significant storm to come up our way because it will not be able to "turn the corner"; the confluence with keep the flow too zonal and not allow it to be buckled more meridionally until it's too far offshore. One way to fix that is to either lose that cutoff low beneath the ridge and keep the ridge in place, which would then allow it to respond to upstream effects and possibly sharpen such that the downstream trough could sharpen. A second way would be to keep the Rex block in tact but shift it a bit more west than presently modeled, which even given the confluence would allow the flow to already oriented in a more south-north direction. If any energy dove down the backside of the trough, it would then have enough room to head our way in time. That's all I'm saying.

Werd!

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:08 pm

THE BRIDGE OVER THE TOP!!
BRING IT JUST LIKE I WAS TALKING ABOUT YESTERDAY

.


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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:45 pm

Interesting differences in the stratospheric vortex shape below 50mb(150-50mb) vs above 50mb (50mb-1mb) , esp 150-100mb, over the next 10days.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:25 pm

Interesting to suddenly see blocking on the latest GFS and ECM runs... although operational runs, so take with a grain of salt of course.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:56 pm

The blocking showing up has to be a result of the tropical forcing.

I'm becoming excited

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:11 pm

What's even more interesting is the ECMWF and 18z GFS do it different ways entirely. ECM has the rex block... GFS does not. But 18z really exaggerates the Arctic heights and forces the PV way southward. Overwhelming cold, but has a -PNA yet. ECM the PNA is near neutral I'm guessing looking at H5 heights. Haven't seen the actual teleconnection indices.
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:21 pm

Guys he indicies are absolutely atrocious had a 15 minute convinced with my buddy Scott, well my hs ex player the pro met, and he agrees with this. The mjo is somehow a loe leven trop forcing event that the indicies are just plain and simply missing in the Nina enso state. He said this is his taken on this maybe something else.

Look at th3 HUGE storm I alluded to coming off the NE coast of  Asia and it just absolutely pumping the Aluetian Ridge it is beautiful.

Okay why can't I post a gif?? Anyone.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:25 pm

Okay forget it this is crazy good!!


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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:37 pm

Wow


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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow


YES YES YES YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!! party party party

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by amugs on Thu Dec 22, 2016 9:10 pm

THANK YOU ASIA!!
Cyclonic wave break off east Asia that sends the North Pacific ridge poleward - massive WPO and EPO negative coming through with the bridge over teh top as I posted could cause a Negative NAO - madonne worthy imo!

Umm again how the h do I post a gif - anyone?

Okay look at this - purple over Alaska region is the roid like Neg EPO and the bridge over teh top -= massive REX block and the purple eat of Greenland = the Roid like Negative NAO
Give me teh EPO SD 3-4 Negative = the map Iposted yesterday for COLD way BN and a positive PNA to help storm go more east of the appalachians and bring us some good s- not calling for a HECS here so temper that excitement but SECS type storms = 4" plus
Cross polar flow to boot - holy moly!!



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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:28 pm

SECS=4 inches plus ???

Where in the southeast?? If that's true we've had 2 already this season.

I will post this one more time

6-11 SECS
12-23. MECS
24-35. HECS
36+. BECS

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:31 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:SECS=4 inches plus ???

Where in the southeast?? If that's true we've had 2 already this season.

I will post this one more time

6-11     SECS
12-23.  MECS
24-35.  HECS
36+.     BECS


Allow me to revise.

6-11 bullcrap
12-23 Godzilla
24-35 Roidzilla
36+ Frankzilla

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:49 pm

Tropical CPC expects the convection over the tropical Pacific to continue for the next 2 weeks. I'm still amazed how guidance has been unable to see the area of convergence between 120E and 150E. We're already seeing what implications this will have based off current guidance valid for the New Years time period. Even better, geopotential heat flux is forecasted to increase at 30hPa around this time period too. No coincidence, obvioisly. Exciting times ahead. I do like the 28th and onward period for a potential wintry event.



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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:51 pm

Hour 180 GFS Op trying to develop another classic anafrontal snow event.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:55 pm

The blue circles are indicative of thunderstorm activity in the western Tropical Pacific, which signals for an MJO phase 6.


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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:57 pm

rb924119 wrote:Hour 180 GFS Op trying to develop another classic anafrontal snow event.

F these anafronts.

Atleast it has snow NYD

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:00 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Tropical CPC expects the convection over the tropical Pacific to continue for the next 2 weeks. I'm still amazed how guidance has been unable to see the area of convergence between 120E and 150E. We're already seeing what implications this will have based off current guidance valid for the New Years time period. Even better, geopotential heat flux is forecasted to increase at 30hPa around this time period too. No coincidence, obvioisly. Exciting times ahead. I do like the 28th and onward period for a potential wintry event.



It really is pathetic at this point lol some "upgrade" they did to them lmfao sometimes bigger isn't always better-Keep It Simple Stupid lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:01 am

Agree!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:02 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Hour 180 GFS Op trying to develop another classic anafrontal snow event.

F these anafronts.

Atleast it has snow NYD

Why? The last one produced big time!

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:07 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Hour 180 GFS Op trying to develop another classic anafrontal snow event.

F these anafronts.

Atleast it has snow NYD

Why? The last one produced big time!

We need something more thrilling. I want this place on fire.

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:09 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Hour 180 GFS Op trying to develop another classic anafrontal snow event.

F these anafronts.

Atleast it has snow NYD

Why? The last one produced big time!

We need something more thrilling. I want this place on fire.

On fire?!!! Don't you mean "on ice"?? Lmao

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:12 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Hour 180 GFS Op trying to develop another classic anafrontal snow event.

F these anafronts.

Atleast it has snow NYD

Why? The last one produced big time!

We need something more thrilling. I want this place on fire.

On fire?!!! Don't you mean "on ice"?? Lmao

harvey

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by rb924119 on Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:15 am

Don't really get the joke, but I'll lol anyway ahaha

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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 23, 2016 7:47 am

Well Ray here ya go buddy. Here is the SOI crash you were looking for. "Cattle Prod" to the atmosphere right? LOL

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 12.0 (Split from original 12.0 Thread)

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