January 2017 Observations & Discussions

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:24 pm

SNJ FTW - with dynamics Ocean, Atlantic and Cape MAy can easily see 3" plus


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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:36 pm

amugs wrote:SNJ FTW - with dynamics Ocean, Atlantic and Cape MAy can easily see 3" plus


Anyone north of NYC, keep the line moving folks nothing to see here.
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:45 pm

Yep, that's WAY south, but some of our posters here will have a nice surprise tomorrow morning.My buddy in Atco NJ, halfway between Philly and AC should do well.

40.2, 45%, 29.38 R. Partly cloudy, calm.
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:44 pm

docstox12 wrote:Yep, that's WAY south, but some of our posters here will have a nice surprise tomorrow morning.My buddy in Atco NJ, halfway between Philly and AC should do well.

40.2, 45%, 29.38 R. Partly cloudy, calm.

Hey doc I use to go out their back when I was in my 20s for the drag track . Great Memories
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:17 pm

I'm just barely in the northern fringe of that shading aound ny. Close call for some flakes or nada
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:20 pm

RGEM trended N by about 50 miles and GEFS has snow into the LHV, showing the LP stronger and a NNE movement



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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:35 pm

amugs wrote:RGEM trended N by about 50 miles and GEFS has snow into the LHV, showing the LP stronger and a NNE movement




wow mugs so what are we looking at 2-4 area wide sounds good
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:46 pm

amugs wrote:RGEM trended N by about 50 miles and GEFS has snow into the LHV, showing the LP stronger and a NNE movement



hey mugs...if this were to happen and does effect my area..what time are we looking for this to start?
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:47 pm

NWS has me in a HWO, expecting light snow up here...

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:18 pm

Wondering if the area of snow and rain on the radar extending from over the Susquehanna Valley in south central PA down to the Baltimore MD area currently heading northeast will bring us a period of snow later tonight.
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by track17 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:28 pm

Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:31 pm

track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by track17 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:33 pm

Awesome

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:53 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
what time frame are we looking at...sorry I am asking again
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:57 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
what time frame are we looking at...sorry I am asking again

Sorry Joanne, start time just before school drop-off!

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:04 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
track17 wrote:Skins what are you thinking for our area ?

I think 2-4 inches area wide is a safe bet. Depending if the low explodes off the coast.
what time frame are we looking at...sorry I am asking again

Sorry Joanne, start time just before school drop-off!

thanks Janet was curious..you know what I was hoping for...Smile . unfortunately  son still  not well enough to go back to school tom...this flu thing is horrible...
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:14 pm

Nam is coming south with the second clipper.
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by track17 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:19 pm

When is the 2nd clipper

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:19 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam is coming south with the second clipper.

is that the one for tues afternoon?
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:20 pm

Here's my forecast for the clipper, for those interested:

Admittedly, the 3-5" zone may be better served as a 2-4", but I have some reasoning behind it. Although this is a clipper, which usually means the system won't be good for much more than an inch or two, it is moving into a more favorable spot. As it approaches our region, it does phase in some additional mid-level energy which is clearly shown to amplify the mid-level energy and differential potential vorticity advection (forcing for ascent). While there is no jet help to really fuel this system, the lower levels do provide some additional simultaneous support. Based on the season's tendency to develop systems shortly prior to reaching the coastline, likely due to the warmer than normal coastal waters, I am sticking with that trend here. Therefore, not only will there be a closed surface low pressure that develops prior to reaching the coast, but because there is a phase at H5, this should also allow the lower levels to close off in rather quick succession (H925 and then H850). As a direct result, this should work to quickly, although relatively briefly, enhance the low-level frontogenetical forcing for ascent. Third, there also appears to be a mild signature of H700 frontogenesis developing as a result of the lower levels closing off, thus changing the thermal gradient orientation to a more warm air advective profile and providing further forcing for ascent through this layer. With H5 energy and differential positive vorticity advection quickly increasing thanks to the phase, a band of moderate precipitation should develop just on the northwestern side of the lower level lows as the system swings through. One last thing to consider, is once the lower levels close off, this should also aid in increasing moisture fluxes off the Atlantic some, and wiith thermal profiles and saturation vapor pressures appearing to be conducive for plate snow crystal habits, accumulations should occur fairly efficiently through most of the window of moderate precipitation. Assuming ratios of 15:1 at minimum, with more likely 18:1, I do feel 3" should be achievable, with a few spots eclipsing 4". We'll see!!


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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:20 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam is coming south with the second clipper.

is that the one for tues afternoon?
Yes.
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:26 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam is coming south with the second clipper.

is that the one for tues afternoon?
Yes.

thank you
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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:30 pm

Started a thread for Tuesdays clipper. Tomorrow's event we can keep observations in this thread. Ray, nice writeup.

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Started a thread for Tuesdays clipper. Tomorrow's event we can keep observations in this thread. Ray, nice writeup.

Thank you, sir! Now hopefully it verifies Razz Razz Razz

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Re: January 2017 Observations & Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:52 pm

Good post Ray. I'll preface this next comment with the fact that I am expecting zero snow out of this but......how can your map have a 3-5" line that if extended offshore of NJ should include the eastern half and south shore of LI but instead all of LI is c-1"? Just curious. Thanks
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