January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
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dkodgis
aiannone
Dunnzoo
skinsfan1177
hyde345
weatherwatchermom
jake732
sroc4
Armando Salvadore
Vinnydula
Snow88
Math23x7
amugs
algae888
nutleyblizzard
rb924119
jmanley32
frank 638
Frank_Wx
23 posters
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
GFS is a solid 1-3", more on Long Island maybe.
The worst part is this comes in during morning rush hour. PLAN TO WORK FROM HOME.
The worst part is this comes in during morning rush hour. PLAN TO WORK FROM HOME.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
2-4 for NYC on GFS
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Snow88 wrote:2-4 for NYC on GFS
My dog will be happy.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Frank_Wx wrote:Snow88 wrote:2-4 for NYC on GFS
My dog will be happy.
with ratios maybe higher??
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Hoping we get a delayed out of this for school. Last time they brought us in on a snowy morning last year 2 buses skidded off teh road and 30 teachers were late by 30 minutes plus - hopefully they will learn from t5his and not American Amnesia!! The trend is very good with this and I see about 50 mile more lean NW IMO. WHy you ask tis has been a trend with most of our coastal in teh last year
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
My major concern is that with a fresh dry air mass, we may loose a bit of the precip to virga. However, if the west trend continues, that won't really be an issue. To get the 2-4" storm, I would like .3-.4" qpf to start showing on the models
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
I note with sadness that Bill Evans thinks above I-84...nothing but a few flurries. That's me. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Euro not enthused at all with this wave
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Nearly identical to the 0z run though
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
EURO is a giant kick to the groin for both events
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
I thought u said 2nd event was only a small step back. This however is wow nearly nada. Not even worth ur time for a snow map if u think euro is right. I'm thinking the Sr prolly better since this within 72 hrs. Closer to 48 actually.Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is a giant kick to the groin for both events
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
jmanley32 wrote:I thought u said 2nd event was only a small step back. This however is wow nearly nada. Not even worth ur time for a snow map if u think euro is right. I'm thinking the Sr prolly better since this within 72 hrs. Closer to 48 actually.Frank_Wx wrote:EURO is a giant kick to the groin for both events
The 1st wave I was never enthused with. I just feel the gradient is too far S&E so we're kept out of the best lift. Couple that with 500mb energy west of the area, I don't see an impressive event here.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
It looks like nothing but flurries west of the City, but it looks like 1-3" east of the city, and obviously closer to 1" west and 3" east
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Personally I am not too upset of this one doesn't pan out though I'd live to have two storms back to back I'll take the one that has chance to produce way more.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
SREF plume mean for Islip, NY is 2" still.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
18z rgem comes in much better not great but much better than 12z - markedly better
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
Yeah it did but its still LR for the SR model, so we shall see, I am hoping as much as the bext guy, if this came much closer this could have been a big snowfall too, but as Frank said its not going to come that close.amugs wrote:18z rgem comes in much better not great but much better than 12z - markedly better
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
So this first storm seems to trending stronger?
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
skinsfan1177 wrote:So this first storm seems to trending stronger?
1-3" with isolated spots seeing 4" depending on where the higher rates fall. Will examine later on
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
With little QPF, sufficient amount of lifting and VV within the dendrite growth zone (mind you its about 200-300mb deep) and enough relative humidity could make for higher ratios. The 18z NAM and hi res including the RGEM did put down a not too shabby output of QPF. Take that and higher than the standard 10:1 ratio (using ~14/15:1), and you're good with a 1-3/2-4" event with more as you head closer to the coast. Atmosphere is pure saturated during the "peak" of this event as well. Maybe some surprises with this one, but again, not talking anything over 5" for NNJ lets say. Still, it's an interesting light event.
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
thsts alot more than 1 to 3 wow. Which model is that it's cut off.aiannone wrote:
wowzers!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
where did everyone go?
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event
weatherwatchermom wrote:where did everyone go?
Burnt out from flip flopping model runs! I'm hoping for just enough snow to enjoy a white birthday! I think I will see 2"-3" here in NNJ. I finally have a break from the rat race tonight, so I am going to look at the short range models... hopefully they will give us a few inches!
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