January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:32 am

Ill give it until tomorrows 12z's but I'm losing confidence in both waves for anything significant. Esp wave 1 S&E areas are very close so its worth keeping an eye out, but I'm not encouraged so far by the 12z's today.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:48 am

UKIE nice for wave 1. Yay, good news.


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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:51 am


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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:06 pm

Hopefully the Brits start teh trend with the 12Z suite here - lookslike 1-3" here

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Armando Salvadore on Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:57 pm

Well, the 12z EPS took a notable shift west with the second wave with the first wave still consistent from its output over the last few days. One thing i like about this first wave is the 200mb jet streak setting up over the east coast. Right rear entrance argues for a precipitation shield growth and more cyclogenensis, and it even shows a better jet streak for the second wave. Trends can be seen with a poleward western ridge as well. This has a shot at creeping NW and make it very interesting, but for now, it remains to be seen and under a shot for light accumulations.

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:42 pm

Yes let's get a 2-4" out of this as the appetizer and help set up the big dog. This guy will help with our transient N NAO in the 50/50 region hopefully. 
Could be flying under the radar a bit imo. 
Good ana lysis Armondo.

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:28 pm

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:49 pm

amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:50 pm

NAM is rolling

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:58 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:13 pm

While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary.  Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday.  The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees.  And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:



And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow.  But a lot of them give me some doubt.



I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:51 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!!



easy 2-4" event with temps in the 20's for this N & W areas -15:1 ratio snows

At least 15:1 Mugs. Could be closer to 20:1 N&W of the city.

So the 1st so called non-event could be near a warning level snow just N & west of city, and then we get the big momma plezz
To tell you the truth I wouldn't mind if wave 1 dissipates completely. You need to remember it could rob the energy or lower heights along the coast. Especially if it trends stronger.
your right makes sense.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:56 pm

Lonnie just said he is watching this wave but thinks it stays basically off shore and with most areas less than inch..




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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:04 pm

Math23x7 wrote:While the SREF precip field may look juicy, keep in mind that the surface temperatures it has for Friday morning vary.  Take LaGuardia Airport at 7 AM this Friday.  The temperatures range from 18 degrees to 41 degrees.  And some members have it getting into the 50s Friday into Saturday:



And and far as snowfall is concerned, there is one weenie member that has nine inches of snow, and other snow amounts include 5.5" and 3.2", and some have 1-3" of snow.  But a lot of them give me some doubt.



I'm not sold to this just yet, but it's worth watching.

SREFs often seem to be juicy compared to other models. Not buying it one bit, especially north and west. I doubt we see anything more than flurries or a period of light snow with this first wave.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:10 pm

4k nam is 2 to 3 inches for the City Central Jersey and Long Island for the first wave at 10 to 1 ratios
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:31 pm

Nam has about 1-2 inches here for Friday for the NYC area
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:58 am

wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:55 am

Models are trending wetter with this. Ratios will be higher than 10:1. Looks like we're headed toward a 2-4" type snowfall. Will update later.

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2017-2018:

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:25 am

algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap! Nice

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap!  Nice

And that only 10:1 ratios.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:10 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:wow at the 6z 4k nam...

most models trending stronger with this wave.

Holy crap!  Nice

And that only 10:1 ratios.  
Wouldn't it be something if wave 1 turns out to be our Godzilla? I don't think its out of the realm of possibilities if this keeps trending NW.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:12 am

I'm thinking coastal areas should keep their guard up for both storms
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:10 am

SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.


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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:12 am

Frank_Wx wrote:SREFS keeping trending wetter. .50 line creeping onto Long Island now.


Coastal nj as well
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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