January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:53 am

LOVE the changes on the 12z GFS aloft for Wave 2. Better northern stream, ridge, and heights along the EC. Where it's still making progress is the southern stream energy. It's still shredding it out. Considering the GFS has a bias to be a northern stream model, I am not concerned about its depiction of the southern stream.There is also a sick sub tropical jet stream screaming through the south. One would think that will keep the southern s/w potent.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jake732 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:00 am

frank, gfs is till way south and east... do u think time is running out or whoo cares about the gfs
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:05 am

Frank_Wx wrote:LOVE the changes on the 12z GFS aloft for Wave 2. Better northern stream, ridge, and heights along the EC. Where it's still making progress is the southern stream energy. It's still shredding it out. Considering the GFS has a bias to be a northern stream model, I am not concerned about its depiction of the southern stream.There is also a sick sub tropical jet stream screaming through the south. One would think that will keep the southern s/w potent.

Agree... could be an epic bias issue here. GFS has a profound tendency to string out energy in the southern stream.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:06 am

Bobby Martrich EPAWA wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:LOVE the changes on the 12z GFS aloft for Wave 2. Better northern stream, ridge, and heights along the EC. Where it's still making progress is the southern stream energy. It's still shredding it out. Considering the GFS has a bias to be a northern stream model, I am not concerned about its depiction of the southern stream.There is also a sick sub tropical jet stream screaming through the south. One would think that will keep the southern s/w potent.

Agree... could be an epic bias issue here. GFS has a profound tendency to string out energy in the southern stream.

bananadude

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:17 am

12z Canadian skirts the coast. West of 00z run. Nice trend.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Bobby Martrich EPAWA on Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:25 am

CMC also largely misses farther south with the PJ s/w Thursday night... farthest south of all guidance
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:30 am


12z CMC is west!!! Nice trends. Huge EURO run awaits!!!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:20 pm

Not bantering here but what's with wave 2 slamming cape and parts ma with like a leftover hooked piece of heavy precip? That's not fair lol. Hopefully keeps looking better and better.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:22 pm

I'm feeling quite optimistic on the euro the way the other models have been going.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Not bantering here but what's with wave 2 slamming cape and parts ma with like a leftover hooked piece of heavy precip? That's not fair lol. Hopefully keeps looking better and better.

Thats the CCB band Jman. Anyone else impatiently waiting for the euro to initiate? A little over 15mins

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 11th = coating
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'm feeling quite optimistic on the euro the way the other models have been going.
Any word on UKIE???
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:26 pm

sroc4 wrote:Thats the CCB band Jman.  Anyone else impatiently waiting for the euro to initiate?  A little over 15mins

ME!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Not bantering here but what's with wave 2 slamming cape and parts ma with like a leftover hooked piece of heavy precip? That's not fair lol. Hopefully keeps looking better and better.

Thats the CCB band Jman.  Anyone else impatiently waiting for the euro to initiate?  A little over 15mins

Chomping at the bit here rabbit
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:32 pm

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:35 pm

So far I am not feeling so hot about wave 2 after seeing the NAVGEM, UKMET, and JMA shift east. Not as far east as the GFS, but it could be the start of a trend. We'll find out soon from the EURO. Keep in mind the northern piece of energy will not be in a well-sampled area in Canada until Friday. So whatever models show today I suggest not taking them too seriously whether good or bad.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:35 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:

Yea, mentioned this too.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:37 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm feeling quite optimistic on the euro the way the other models have been going.
Any word on UKIE???
It goes from St Augustine Florida 1013 Mb - 995 MB just east of Nova Scotia. At our 72 precip is into Central virginia. looks like we would get brushed by it something similar to the Canadian
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:48 pm

Euro has initialized!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:59 pm

out to30 not much changed from 00z at H5

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jake732 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:03 pm

hearing on other boards that not better
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:05 pm

precip amts for QPF went down for N&W zones for wave 1

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:06 pm

EURO:

I really don't like anything this run. Every feature took a step back. Ridge, northern stream, southern stream, and heights along EC.

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2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 19.0"

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:07 pm

Ugg of course. Let's hope the sampling is still not right. I want tgat ccb band lol
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:07 pm

sroc4 wrote:precip amts for QPF went down for N&W zones for wave 1

For wave 1 it actually looks identical to the 0z run
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO:

I really don't like anything this run. Every feature took a step back. Ridge, northern stream, southern stream, and heights along EC.
correct me if I'm wrong but 5 days out a step back can easily correct and go in our favor. Now if it was 1 or 2 days I'd throw in towel.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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