January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:01 pm

18z NAM a good jog west and a healthy precip field when compared to 12z
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:01 pm


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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by frank 638 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:02 pm

Got it thanks frank let's hope for a surprise

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:02 pm

I will issue an updated snow map early tomorrow morning if I feel the need to. I will say to if you live along the Jersey Shore and LI, prepare for a sizable event. At least 3 inches with potential for 8"

That is a good snowstorm for you guys.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:03 pm

This is going to prompt Winter Storm Warnings for Central and Eastern LI, all of SECT, RI, EMA
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:04 pm



Wow cape!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:09 pm

Few inches on the Nam for NYC

EPS has 3 inches for NYC
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:10 pm

Scott time for you and I to prep the snowblowers. I think we will need em.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:11 pm

Anyone have total QPF?
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:11 pm

CIPS analog is 1.23.14

A lot of snow on that date for the coast
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:22 pm

.4" for central LI and .5" for eastern LI at hour 30, still snowing until hour 39..........
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:24 pm

NAM looks overdone IMHO. The SREFS even trended further offshore with the QPF, so I think the NAM may be suffering from its bias here. Just my opinion, though.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:24 pm

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT SATURDAY...

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-070500-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.170107T1200Z-170108T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.170107T1200Z-170108T0600Z/
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
322 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2SM OR LESS EXPECTED.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:25 pm


...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT SATURDAY...

CTZ007-010-011-NYZ078-080-070500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.170107T1200Z-170108T0600Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
322 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND MIDDLESEX
AND SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...1 MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:28 pm


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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:29 pm



And this is 10:1!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:34 pm

aiannone wrote:

And this is 10:1!

if this verifies even with 10:1 ratios I would be at 6 inches...
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:34 pm



With ratios
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:36 pm

So Alex and Scott. As fellow long Islanders I am not in the WWA for 3-6". It starts 2 miles east of me. With the scheduled .4 qpf. over my house with good ratios 3-6" should be reasonable if the qpf forecast verifies. You guys at about .6 qpf could be looking at 6-9 even though you are only forecast for 4-6"

Lets hope for a last minute shift west because rb is still making me nervous.

Thoughts?
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:36 pm

aiannone wrote:

With ratios

So we're back to a possible warning-level snowfall here in NYC proper? Lol...this STORM!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:So Alex and Scott.  As fellow long Islanders I am not in the WWA for 3-6".  It starts 2 miles east of me.  With the scheduled .4 qpf. over my house with good ratios 3-6" should be reasonable if the qpf forecast verifies.  You guys at about .6 qpf could be looking at 6-9 even though you are only forecast for 4-6"  

Lets hope for a last minute shift west because rb is still making me nervous.

Thoughts?

I am really surprised there isnt an advisory for at least 2-4" for you. I also think that if the trend holds, they will up amounts overnight. Sit back and see, but we have ourselves an event which a couple days ago looked like just flurries!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:45 pm

They'll (Upton) issue a WWA late tonight/early tomorrow for NYC. Nothing more. Incidentally, VA Beach/Hampton Roads are now under Blizzard Warnings. A little dramatic IMHO...
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by oldtimer on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:48 pm

Thanks Alex Great info and stuff A nice 6" would be great

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:49 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
aiannone wrote:

With ratios

So we're back to a possible warning-level snowfall here in NYC proper? Lol...this STORM!

this gives me a bit above 6 inches, ill b happy with that! from this morning looked like almost nothing, but ray could b right with it being overdone nam.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:49 pm

syosnow94 wrote:So Alex and Scott.  As fellow long Islanders I am not in the WWA for 3-6".  It starts 2 miles east of me.  With the scheduled .4 qpf. over my house with good ratios 3-6" should be reasonable if the qpf forecast verifies.  You guys at about .6 qpf could be looking at 6-9 even though you are only forecast for 4-6"  

Lets hope for a last minute shift west because rb is still making me nervous.

Thoughts?

For me personally I agree with rb's hesitation to buy into tyhe NAM lock stock and Barrel. I think, and this is a line from a buddy O mine who Im having texts back and forth with right now, but is a lurker on here so should see this, if we all had a dollar every time someone said west, looks better wed all be rich with just the last 48hrs.

Its been my experince with the cold that is in place and with the even colder sweeping in behind the system the western edge tends to move through faster than is forecast. And the subsidence zone that occurs on the NW flank is going to be very sharp so we shall see. I am still sticking with my updated forecast, but I do have a possible extra 1-2 to 1-3 inches on top of these totals giving a max potential for my map of 5-11" in far eastern zones to 3-8" in the center, and 2-5" in the western most LI and NYC metro area. I "think this should cover it.

Jim I think for the reasons mentioned your are located far enough west where you may be on the fringe of the goods so confidence is low on calling for a WAA in this area. If observations come to fruition late tonight it will be hoisted.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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