January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Armando Salvadore on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:04 pm

Nice map Frank, spot on! Just makes you sick to see WSW to our south with a blizzard warning for Norfolk. Pretty much sums up our winter thus far lol.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:41 pm

18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT WAY WEST!


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:45 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by GreyBeard on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:45 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.



Soul, I admire your optimism. You never want to give up. Thumbs up

But I see our fearless leader thinks otherwise.

Ok Frank, now I need to edit again as I am in central L.I. Wink


Last edited by GreyBeard on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:51 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:46 pm

Actually, it's not for Long Island. It blows up the jet streak to the NW and keeps a CCB over them longer. Looks like 5"+ from central LI on east.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:47 pm

Armando Salvadore wrote:Nice map Frank, spot on! Just makes you sick to see WSW to our south with a blizzard warning for Norfolk. Pretty much sums up our winter thus far lol.

I'm with Armando. It actually makes me sick to see how close a miss this is for us. if you put a ruler down on The advisories on the NWS page he posted they go straight up from the mid-Atlantic through the eastern half of Jersey then disappear as they approach zone immediate area only to appear again NNE of us defying logic. It's painful. 12-15" ssw of us and ne of us

Oh shoot. I forgot to ask 1190ftalt if it's ok that I post this
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

Mid level improvements? And what about the RGEM?!
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:48 pm



RGEM says Hey....
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:50 pm

RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!


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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:50 pm

aiannone wrote:

RGEM says Hey....

THANK YOU. Lol. Jeez, can we get a little excitement around here? Also, has anyone seen the RPM?
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:51 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

Mid level improvements? And what about the RGEM?!

Yes. And RGEM just posted.

The GFS is now showing a dual jet streak overhead.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Actually, it's not for Long Island. It blows up the jet streak to the NW and keeps a CCB over them longer. Looks like 5"+ from central LI on east.

10:1 ?
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:53 pm

I'm using 15:1 ratios for this storm

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:54 pm

3K NAM


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:54 pm

RGEM snow map...add about 1-2 inches


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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:54 pm

RGEM at 10:1 ratios


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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:55 pm

Beat me to it Frank...but only by seconds

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by aiannone on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:56 pm



12z RGEM for comparison. NAM may be leading the way....
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:57 pm

RGEM 4-10" Island wide from City to Montauk,

3K NAM 7-12 Island wide from city to montauk.

more east obviously

BELIEVABLE???
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:59 pm

If tonight's SREFS, NAM, and RGEM still show these types of totals then my snow map could bust low. I honestly didn't think the precipitation shield would expand like that. And if it did, I wasn't buying into the heavier snowfall rates.

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:01 pm

Nice looking more and more like I may squeeze pit 4 to 6 with ratios. If this comes in like RGEM then could b more if even further west precip shield. I'm with soul never give up until it's too late lol
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Nice looking more and more like I may squeeze pit 4 to 6 with ratios. If this comes in like RGEM then could b more if even further west precip shield. I'm with soul never give up until it's too late lol

Thank you, Jman. We want our Winter Storm Warnings! Nothing in wx erks me more than a WWA. Sleep
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:03 pm

syosnow94 wrote:RGEM 4-10" Island wide from City to Montauk,

3K NAM 7-12 Island wide from city to montauk.

more east obviously

BELIEVABLE???

Not yet for me personally. The jet streak is impressive, but the low pressure center seems too far S&E. I will say current radar looks pretty nice down south though. Lots of lightning within the convective cells near the Gulf

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018:

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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by Vinnydula on Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:03 pm

What time would be start time.? I have to drive in to the city tomorrow around noon?
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:04 pm

Look at how much further N&W the VV are on the 18z compared to the 12z:  Youve got -30 to -40 VV reaching into the coast. Jeeze these models have changed their mood more than a 16yr old high school girl.  Madonne!!



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 8.05"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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